The Role of Conviction in Personal Disease Risk Perceptions: What Can We Learn From Research on Attitude Strength?

Perceived risk for disease is included as a predictor of intentions and behavior in many health behavior theories. However, perceived risk is not always a strong predictor of intentions and behaviors. One reason may be suboptimal conceptualization and measurement of risk perceptions; in particular, research may not capture the conviction and certainty with which a risk perception is held. The rich and independent literature on attitudes might be leveraged to explore whether conviction is an important moderator of the effects of risk perceptions on intentions and behavior. Attitudes are more predictive of intentions when they are high in multiple aspects of attitude strength, including attitude certainty and being more accessible and stable over time. Working from the assumption that risk perceptions have a similar structure and function to attitudes, we consider whether factors known to strengthen the attitude–behavior correspondence might also strengthen the risk perception–behavior correspondence. Although by strict definition risk perceptions are not evaluations (a critical component of attitudes), the predictive validity of risk perceptions may be increased by attention to one's “conviction” or certainty of perceived risk. We also review recent strategies designed to improve risk perception measurement, including affective and experiential assessments of perceived risk and the importance of allowing people to indicate that they “don't know” their disease risk. The aim of this paper is to connect two disparate literatures – attitudes and persuasion in social psychology with risk perceptions in health psychology and decision science – in an attempt to stimulate more work on characteristics and proper measurement of risk perceptions.