Causal and noncausal conditionals: An integrated model of interpretation and reasoning

We present an integrated model for the understanding of and the reasoning from conditional statements. Central assumptions from several approaches are integrated into a causal path model. According to the model, the cognitive availability of exceptions to a conditional reduces the subjective conditional probability of the consequent, given the antecedent. This conditional probability determines people's degree of belief in the conditional, which in turn affects their willingness to accept logically valid inferences. In addition to this indirect pathway, the model contains a direct pathway: Availability of exceptional situations directly reduces the endorsement of valid inferences. We tested the integrated model with three experiments using conditional statements embedded in pseudonaturalistic cover stories. An explicitly mentioned causal link between antecedent and consequent was either present (causal conditionals) or absent (arbitrary conditionals). The model was supported for the causal but not for the arbitrary conditional statements.     

Automatic attention to stimuli signalling chances and dangers: Moderating effects of positive and negative goal and action contexts

Current research on automatic attention allocation focuses on the questions whether there is an asymmetry in attentional biases towards negative and positive stimuli and whether these attentional biases are influenced by situational variables. In an experiment with N = 48 participants, automatic allocation of attention to chance and danger stimuli was investigated. Attentional capture was generally larger for chance stimuli than for danger stimuli. Additionally, attentional bias was influenced by the outcome focus of the actual goal orientation. Results revealed an incongruence effect of goal orientation on attentional biases: Attentional capture for the chance and danger stimuli was comparatively stronger when an outcome focus of opposite valence had been induced.