The Modes of Value

Contrary to the received view, decision theory is not primarily devoted to instrumental (ends-to-means) reasoning. Instead, its major preoccupation is the derivation of ends from other ends. Given preferences over basic alternatives, it constructs preferences over alternatives that have been modified through the addition of value object modifiers (modes) that specify probability, uncertainty, distance in time etc. A typology of the decision-theoretical modes is offered. The modes do not have (even extrinsic) value, but they transform the value of objects to which they are applied. A rational agent's total set of preferences should be coherent, but from this it does not follow that her preferences over mode-containing objects have to be derivable from her preferences over mode-free objects.     

Genetic probes of three theories of maternal adjustment: I. Recent evidence and a model.

Studies focusing on genetic and social influences on maternal adjustment will illumine mother's marriage, parenting, and the development of psychopathology in her children. Recent behavioral genetic research suggests mechanisms by which genetic and social influences determine psychological development and adjustment. First, heritable, personal attributes may influence individuals' relationships with their family members. These genetically influenced family patterns may amplify the effects of adverse, heritable personal attributes on adjustment. Second, influences unique to siblings may be the most important environmental determinants of adjustment. We derive three hypotheses on maternal adjustment from integrating these findings from genetic studies with other contemporary research on maternal adjustment. First, mother's marriage mediates the influence of her heritable, personal attributes on her adjustment. Second, mother's recall of how she was parented is partially genetically influenced, and both her relationships with her spouse and her child mediate the impact of these genetically influenced representations on her current adjustment. Third, characteristics of mother's spouse are important influences on difference between her adjustment and that of her sister's. These sibling-specific influences are unrelated to mother's heritable attributes. The current article develops this model, and [figure: see text] the companion article describes the Twin Mom Study that was designed to test it as well, as its first findings. Data from this study can illumine the role of family process in the expression of genetic influence and lead to specific family interventions designed to offset adverse genetic influences.     

Genetic probes of three theories of maternal adjustment: II. Genetic and environmental influences.

This is the first report of the Twin Mom Study, an investigation of three hypotheses concerning influences on maternal adjustment. These hypotheses concern the role of the marital and parent-child relationships in mediating genetic influences on maternal adjustment and on the importance of the mothers' marital partners as a specifiable source of influences on their adjustment not shared with their sisters. The study's sample of 150 monozygotic (MZ) twins and 176 dizygotic (DZ) twins was drawn randomly from the Swedish Twin Registry and is, with some small exceptions, likely to be representative of women in the Swedish population. The sample included the marital partners of these twins and their adolescent children. Self-report and coded videotapes were a source of information about family process. Results reported in this first report focus on comparability of American and Swedish samples on scales measuring psychiatric symptoms, and on an analysis of genetic and environmental influences on nine measures of mothers' adjustment. Results suggest comparability between the US and Sweden. Genetic influences were found for all measures of adjustment, particularly in the psychological manifestations of anxiety and for smoking. The pattern of findings also underscored the importance of influences unique to each sibling within the twin pair, thus focusing attention on the potential role of marital partners in maternal adjustment. Results also suggested that experiences shared by the twin sisters, experiences unrelated to their genetic similarity, may influence their fearfulness and alcohol consumption. Our model did not include these influences and thus must be amended.     

Measuring Uncertainty

Two types of measures of probabilistic uncertainty are introduced and investigated. Dispersion measures report how diffused the agent’s second-order probability distribution is over the range of first-order probabilities. Robustness measures reflect the extent to which the agent’s assessment of the prior (objective) probability of an event is perturbed by information about whether or not the event actually took place. The properties of both types of measures are investigated. The most obvious type of robustness measure is shown to coincide with one of the major candidates for a dispersion measure, the mean square deviation measure.     

European Public Advice on Nanobiotechnology—Four Convergence Seminars

In order to explore public views on nanobiotechnology (NBT), convergence seminars were held in four places in Europe; namely in Visby (Sweden), Sheffield (UK), Lublin (Poland), and Porto (Portugal). A convergence seminar is a new form of public participatory activity that can be used to deal systematically with the uncertainty associated for instance with the development of an emerging technology like nanobiotechnology. In its first phase, the participants are divided into three “scenario groups” that discuss different future scenarios. In the second phase, the participants are regrouped into three “convergence groups”, each of which contains representatives from each of the three groups from the first phase. In the final third phase, all participants meet for a summary discussion. This pilot project had two aims: (1) to develop and assess the new methodology and (2) to gather advice and recommendations from the public that may be useful for future decisions on nanobiotechnology (NBT). Participants emphasized that they wanted the technology to focus on solutions to environmental and medical problems and to meet the needs of developing countries. The need for further public participation and deliberation on NBT issues seemed to be acknowledged by all participants. Many of them also raised equality concerns. Views on the means by which NBT should be steered into socially useful directions were more divided. In particular, different views were expressed on how much regulation of company activities is needed to curb unwanted developments. The participants’ responses in a questionnaire indicate that the methodology of the convergence seminars was successful for decision-making under uncertainty. In particular, the participants stated that their advice was influenced both by access to different possible future developments and by the points of view of their co-participants, which is what the method is specifically intended to achieve.

Unraveling the Aging Skein: Disentangling Sensory and Cognitive Predictors of Age‐related Differences in Decision Making

Age‐related differences in sensory functioning, processing speed, and working memory have been identified as three significant predictors of the age‐related performance decline observed in complex cognitive tasks. Yet, the assessment of their relative predictive capacity and interrelations is still an open issue in decision making and cognitive aging research. Indeed, no previous investigation has examined the relationships of all these three predictors with decision making. In an individual‐differences study, we therefore disentangled the relative contribution of sensory functioning, processing speed, and working memory to the prediction of the age‐related decline in cognitively demanding judgment and decision‐making tasks. Structural equation modeling showed that the age‐related decline in working memory plays an important predictive role, even when controlling for sensory functioning, processing speed, and education. Implications for research on decision making and cognitive aging are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adult age differences in the realism of confidence judgments: overconfidence, format dependence, and cognitive predictors

Realistic confidence judgments are essential to everyday functioning, but few studies have addressed the issue of age differences in overconfidence. Therefore, the authors examined this issue with probability judgment and intuitive confidence intervals in a sample of 122 healthy adults (ages: 35-40, 55-60, 70-75 years). In line with predictions based on the na?ve sampling model (P. Juslin, A. Winman, & P. Hansson, 2007), substantial format dependence was observed, with extreme overconfidence when confidence was expressed as an intuitive confidence interval but not when confidence was expressed as a probability judgment. Moreover, an age-related increase in overconfidence was selectively observed when confidence was expressed as intuitive confidence intervals. Structural equation modeling indicated that the age-related increases in overconfidence were mediated by a general cognitive ability factor that may reflect executive processes. Finally, the results indicated that part of the negative influence of increased age on general ability may be compensated for by an age-related increase in domain-relevant knowledge.     

The transportability of multisystemic therapy to Sweden: short-term results from a randomized trial of conduct-disordered youths

This randomized clinical trial assessed the effectiveness of multisystemic therapy (MST) for 156 youths who met the diagnostic criteria for conduct disorder. Sweden's 3 largest cities and 1 small town served as the recruiting area for the study. A mixed factorial design was used, with random allocation between MST and treatment as usual groups. Assessments were conducted at intake and 7 months after referral. With an intention-to-treat approach, results from multiagent and multimethod assessment batteries showed a general decrease in psychiatric problems and antisocial behaviors among participants across treatments. There were no significant differences in treatment effects between the 2 groups. The lack of treatment effect did not appear to be caused by site differences or variations in program maturity. MST treatment fidelity was lower than that of other studies, although not clearly related to treatment outcomes in this study. The results are discussed in terms of differences between Sweden and the United States. One difference is the way in which young offenders are processed (a child welfare approach vs. a juvenile justice system approach). Sociodemographic differences (e.g., rates of poverty, crime, and substance abuse) between the 2 countries may also have moderating effects on the rates of rehabilitation among young offenders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved).     

Deliberative Pedagogy: Ideas for Analysing the Quality of Deliberation in Conflict Management in Education

Institutions worldwide respond to the need to recognise the value of educating children and young people to handle or solve conflicts in communication. But how do they or we know that an event is correctly interpreted as a conflict? How can people analyse the quality of deliberation when handling or solving conflicts in communication in education? I discuss these questions and argue that the notion of conflict cannot be defined only in terms of incompatibility, clash, opposition and/or disagreement; it also has to encompass negativity in the approach to the other. I also argue that the quality of deliberation can be analysed through a deliberative pedagogical approach, which takes into account structural features of deliberation and required dispositions of the participants, and that our knowledge of conflicts emerges holistically and is interpersonal and objective. I begin by giving an account of some institutional responses to conflicts. Then I discuss the notion of conflict and define it, inter alia, in terms of incompatibility, disagreement and negativity. Finally, I discuss ideas for analysing the quality of deliberation in communication when handling or solving conflicts in education.     

Revising Probabilities and Full Beliefs

Journal of Philosophical Logic - A new formal model of belief dynamics is proposed, in which the epistemic agent has both probabilistic beliefs and full beliefs. The agent has full belief in a...