Evolutionary dynamics of Lewis signaling games: signaling systems vs. partial pooling

Transfer of information between senders and receivers, of one kind or another, is essential to all life. David Lewis introduced a game theoretic model of the simplest case, where one sender and one receiver have pure common interest. How hard or easy is it for evolution to achieve information transfer in Lewis signaling?. The answers involve surprising subtleties. We discuss some if these in terms of evolutionary dynamics in both finite and infinite populations, with and without mutation.     

The View from Nowhen: The Mctaggart-Dummett Argument for the Unreality of Time

Years ago, Michael Dummett defended McTaggart’s argument for the unreality of time, arguing that it cannot be dismissed as guilty of an “indexical fallacy.” Recently, E. J. Lowe has disputed Dummett’s claims for the cogency of the argument. I offer an elaboration and defense of Dummett’s interpretation of the argument (though not of its soundness). I bring to bear some work on tense from the philosophy of language, and some recent work on the concept of the past as it occurs in memory, in an effort to support the claim that McTaggart is not guilty of any simple indexical fallacy. Along the way I criticize an account of what is at stake in disputes about the reality of tense due to A. W. Moore, and I argue for the superiority of the conception of tense-realism that is implicit in McTaggart’s work. The paper is intended to prepare the ground for a substantive defense of the reality of tense.     

Intelligence,but not emotional intelligence,predicts Iowa Gambling Task performance

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is a famous and frequently-used neuropsychological task that is thought to reflect real-world decision-making. There has been some debate, however, about the degree to which the IGT involves cold (cognitive) versus hot (emotional) processing. The present study incorporated 68 healthy individuals and used measures of cognitive intelligence (IQ) and emotional intelligence (EIQ) to predict IGT performance. Higher IQ scores significantly predicted better IGT performance, whereas no EIQ–IGT relationship was observed. The implications of this research on clinical and experimental use of the IGT are outlined.     

Estimating the effect of gang membership on nonviolent and violent delinquency: a counterfactual analysis

This study reconsiders the well‐known link between gang membership and criminal involvement. Recently developed analytical techniques enabled the approximation of an experimental design to determine whether gang members, after being matched with similarly situated nongang members, exhibited greater involvement in nonviolent and violent delinquency. Findings indicated that while gang membership is a function of self‐selection, selection effects alone do not account for the greater involvement in delinquency exhibited by gang members. After propensity score matching was employed, gang members maintained a greater involvement in both nonviolent and violent delinquency when measured cross‐sectionally, but only violent delinquency when measured longitudinally. Additional analyses using inverse probability of treatment weights reaffirmed these conclusions. Aggr. Behav. 36:437–451, 2010. © 2010 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Idealizing Reduction: The Microfoundations of Macroeconomics

The dominant view among macroeconomists is that macroeconomics reduces to microeconomics, both in the sense that all macroeconomic phenomena arise out of microeconomic phenomena and in the sense that macroeconomic theory—to the extent that it is correct—can be derived from microeconomic theory. More than that, the dominant view believes that macroeconomics should in practice use the reduced microeconomic theory: this is the program of microfoundations for macroeconomics to which the vast majority of macroeconomists adhere. The “microfoundational” models that they actually employ are, however, characterized by another feature: they are highly idealized, even when they are applied as direct characterizations of actual data, which itself consists of macroeconomic aggregates. This paper explores the interrelationship between reductionism and idealization in the microfoundational program and the role of idealization in empirical modeling.     

Cortical integration of audio–visual speech and non-speech stimuli

Using fMRI we investigated the neural basis of audio–visual processing of speech and non-speech stimuli using physically similar auditory stimuli (speech and sinusoidal tones) and visual stimuli (animated circles and ellipses). Relative to uni-modal stimuli, the different multi-modal stimuli showed increased activation in largely non-overlapping areas. Ellipse-Speech, which most resembles naturalistic audio–visual speech, showed higher activation in the right inferior frontal gyrus, fusiform gyri, left posterior superior temporal sulcus, and lateral occipital cortex. Circle-Tone, an arbitrary audio–visual pairing with no speech association, activated middle temporal gyri and lateral occipital cortex. Circle-Speech showed activation in lateral occipital cortex, and Ellipse-Tone did not show increased activation relative to uni-modal stimuli. Further analysis revealed that middle temporal regions, although identified as multi-modal only in the Circle-Tone condition, were more strongly active to Ellipse-Speech or Circle-Speech, but regions that were identified as multi-modal for Ellipse-Speech were always strongest for Ellipse-Speech. Our results suggest that combinations of auditory and visual stimuli may together be processed by different cortical networks, depending on the extent to which multi-modal speech or non-speech percepts are evoked.     

Is it even worth it? The effect of loss prospects in the outcome distribution of a public goods dilemma

Contributions to public goods are premised on the expectation that the collective will realize benefit in excess of the value of required contributions. However, past research has focused on public goods of fixed and known value, for which the added value of the produced public good is obvious. Research has largely ignored public goods whose eventual value is uncertain at the time contribution decisions are made. Two studies explored the effects of outcome variance on individuals’ contributions to a public good and their reasons for contributing. Contributions were negatively affected by loss prospects in the distribution of possible outcomes. Further, loss prospects directly discouraged contributions because of loss aversion, and indirectly discouraged contributions by fueling fears that others would not contribute. The negative effects of loss prospects were stronger when social uncertainty was low. Implications for social dilemma research and the effective management of collective action are discussed.     

Suicidal and criminal behavior among female offenders: the role of abuse and psychopathology

Childhood abuse is relatively prevalent among women and is an important risk factor for both criminal behavior and suicide-related behavior (SRB). Based on a sample of 266 female offenders, we address one theoretical and one practical issue. First, from a theoretical perspective, we assess whether internalizing (depression and anxiety) and externalizing (substance abuse and antisocial behavior) psychopathology mediate the relation between abuse on the one hand, and SRB or criminal behavior, on the other. Results indicate that externalizing problems mediate the relation between childhood abuse and both lifetime SRB (fully) and lifetime criminality (partially). Second, at a practical level, results indicate that a subscale of the Revised Psychopathy Checklist (PCL-R; Hare, 1991) that assesses lifetime criminal behavior adds incremental utility to postdicting SRB, beyond the variance accounted for by self-report measures of abuse and externalizing problems. However, none of the measures-including the PCL-R-predicted future recidivism.     

Primary Care Providers’ Responses to Patient-Generated Family History

Family health history is one of the best predictors of an individual’s risk for common disease, yet it is underutilized in routine care. Although the Surgeon General has recommended consumers record their family health history and share it with their health care provider, providers’ perceptions of patient-generated family histories are unknown. To learn more about providers’ experience with and perceptions about patient-generated family histories, we mailed surveys to 301 providers and had a response rate of 24% (n = 68). Seventy-three percent felt a patient-generated computer pedigree would improve their ability to assess risk as compared to their current methods. Seventy percent felt a patient-generated computer pedigree would either have no effect on or would increase the number of patients that could be seen in a day. Results suggest that providers appreciate the potential benefits of patient-generated family histories. Genetic counselors and nurses are in a prime position to promote and facilitate the use of patient-generated family health histories in routine care.     

Elaboration and numerical anchoring: Breadth,depth, and the role of (non‐)thoughtful processes in anchoring theories

Noted Judgment and Decision Making (JDM) researchers differ in their opinions of whether and how an attitudes and persuasion (A&;P) view of anchoring might add to the existing anchoring literature. Epley and Gilovich (2010) and Russo (2010) supported the breadth of variables that an attitudinal view of brings to bear on anchoring phenomena and the potential operation of different psychological processes across different contexts. They also suggest extensions to other types of anchors (along with Frederick et al. 2010), to alternative paradigms, and to other classes of moderators, such as goals. Authors of all three commentaries wondered if the evidence we presented speaks to traditional issues related to processes underlying anchoring. Frederick et al. (2010) also took a different approach in suggesting that anchoring is always due to non-thoughtful processes despite the fact that thoughtful processes can also influence judgments. This approach diverges from prominent reviews of the anchoring literature and implies that the presence of any simple, associative mechanism makes the overall process that involves that mechanism “non-thoughtful.” We discuss how this approach differs from our own, and we discuss the implications of the other observations in each commentary.