(Non)Complementary updating of belief in two hypotheses

Past research has led to the conclusion that two competing hypotheses are represented dependently, and confidence in them is updated in a complementary manner. It is argued here that confidence in two hypotheses can be represented either dependently or independently. Changes in confidence in the former case are always complementary, but changes in the latter case are complementary only under certain conditions. In three simulated medical diagnosis experiments, subjects learned about two illnesses in a manner expected to lead to either dependent or independent confidence. They were then presented with two symptoms sequentially (for each of several patients), updating confidence after each. Experiment 1 demonstrated that changes in confidence in the two illnesses were largely complementary for subjects with dependent, but not independent, confidence. Experiment 2 showed that encouraging consideration of the alternative led to more complementary changes for subjects with independent confidence. Experiment 3 succeeded in producing complementary changes from these subjects. Thus, complementarity does not imply dependent confidence, nor does independent confidence imply non-complementarity.     

Iterated Belief Revision, Reliability, and Inductive Amnesia

Belief revision theory concerns methods for reformulating an agent's epistemic state when the agent's beliefs are refuted by new information. The usual guiding principle in the design of such methods is to preserve as much of the agent's epistemic state as possible when the state is revised. Learning theoretic research focuses, instead, on a learning method's reliability or ability to converge to true, informative beliefs over a wide range of possible environments. This paper bridges the two perspectives by assessing the reliability of several proposed belief revision operators. Stringent conceptions of minimal change are shown to occasion a limitation called inductive amnesia: they can predict the future only if they cannot remember the past. Avoidance of inductive amnesia can therefore function as a plausible and hitherto unrecognized constraint on the design of belief revision operators.     

Moral principles as moral dispositions

What are moral principles? In particular, what are moral principles of the sort that (if they exist) ground moral obligations or—at the very least—particular moral truths? I argue that we can fruitfully conceive of such principles as real, irreducibly dispositional properties of individual persons (agents and patients) that are responsible for and thereby explain the moral properties of (e.g.) agents and actions. Such moral dispositions (or moral powers) are apt to be the metaphysical grounds of moral obligations and of particular truths about what is morally permissible, impermissible, etc. Moreover, they can do other things that moral principles are supposed to do: explain the phenomena “falling within their scope,” support counterfactuals, and ground moral necessities, “necessary connections” between obligating reasons and obligations. And they are apt to be the truthmakers for moral laws, or “lawlike” moral generalizations.     

A cleansing fire: Moral outrage alleviates guilt and buffers threats to one’s moral identity

Why do people express moral outrage? While this sentiment often stems from a perceived violation of some moral principle, we test the counter-intuitive possibility that moral outrage at third-party transgressions is sometimes a means of reducing guilt over one’s own moral failings and restoring a moral identity. We tested this guilt-driven account of outrage in five studies examining outrage at corporate labor exploitation and environmental destruction. Study 1 showed that personal guilt uniquely predicted moral outrage at corporate harm-doing and support for retributive punishment. Ingroup (vs. outgroup) wrongdoing elicited outrage at corporations through increased guilt, while the opportunity to express outrage reduced guilt (Study 2) and restored perceived personal morality (Study 3). Study 4 tested whether effects were due merely to downward social comparison and Study 5 showed that guilt-driven outrage was attenuated by an affirmation of moral identity in an unrelated context.     

Parental Influence on Children with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: I. Relationships Between Parent Behaviors and Child Peer Status

We examined associations between children’s peer relationships and (a) their parents’ social competence as well as (b) their parents’ behaviors during the children’s peer interactions. Participants were families of 124 children ages 6–10 (68% male), 62 with ADHD and 62 age- and sex-matched comparison youth. Children’s peer relationships were assessed via parent and teacher report, and sociometric nominations in a lab-based playgroup. Parental characteristics were assessed via parent self-report and observations of behavior during their child’s playgroup. After statistical control of relevant covariates, parents of children with ADHD reported poorer social skills of their own, arranged fewer playdates for their children, and displayed more criticism during their child’s peer interaction than did parents of comparison youth. Parents’ socialization with other parents and facilitation of the child’s peer interactions predicted their children having good peer relationships as reported by teachers and peers, whereas parental corrective feedback to the child and praise predicted poor peer relationships. Parents’ ratings of their child’s social skills were positively associated with ratings of their own social skills, but negatively associated with criticism and facilitation of the child’s peer interactions. Relationships between parental behaviors and peer relationships were stronger for youth with ADHD than for comparison youth. The relevance of findings to interventions is discussed.     

Tightness shifts in the U.S. and China: Implications of tightening or loosening norms during the coronavirus pandemic

Emergent research identifies cultural tightness-looseness as an important factor for understanding cross-national outcome differences during the coronavirus pandemic. Because perceived tightness-looseness can be measured as an individual-level difference rather than a nation-level difference, and because tightness-looseness may shift during large-scale crises, we investigated whether such shifts occurred early in the coronavirus pandemic in both China (a relatively tight nation, n = 3642) and the U.S. (a relatively loose nation, n = 3583) across three cohorts. Tightness increased across cohorts in China and reduced across cohorts in the U.S. These changes transmitted corresponding indirect effects whereby compliance and institutional trust (scientific and government) about the pandemic were increased in China across cohorts, but decreased in the U.S. across cohorts. These patterns extend advice that national governments can increase compliance and trust via “tightening” by cautioning against norm-setters signaling the reverse (that norms about compliance are loose) given the outcomes observed in the U.S. samples.     

Potential Mediators in Parenting and Family Intervention: Quality of Mediation Analyses

Parenting and family interventions have repeatedly shown effectiveness in preventing and treating a range of youth outcomes. Accordingly, investigators in this area have conducted a number of studies using statistical mediation to examine some of the potential mechanisms of action by which these interventions work. This review examined from a methodological perspective in what ways and how well the family-based intervention studies tested statistical mediation. A systematic search identified 73 published outcome studies that tested mediation for family-based interventions across a wide range of child and adolescent outcomes (i.e., externalizing, internalizing, and substance-abuse problems; high-risk sexual activity; and academic achievement), for putative mediators pertaining to positive and negative parenting, family functioning, youth beliefs and coping skills, and peer relationships. Taken as a whole, the studies used designs that adequately addressed temporal precedence. The majority of studies used the product of coefficients approach to mediation, which is preferred, and less limiting than the causal steps approach. Statistical significance testing did not always make use of the most recently developed approaches, which would better accommodate small sample sizes and more complex functions. Specific recommendations are offered for future mediation studies in this area with respect to full longitudinal design, mediation approach, significance testing method, documentation and reporting of statistics, testing of multiple mediators, and control for Type I error.     

The motivational effects of thinking and worrying about the effects of smoking cigarettes

We tested a strategy to encourage cigarette smokers to think more frequently about the negative consequences of smoking, reasoning that increased thought might lead to greater worry and motivation to quit. College students who smoked daily were randomly assigned to one of three conditions in which they wore watches for one week that sounded an alarm randomly four times each day. When alerted, the students read one of eight cards that either had a written statement about studying (control condition), a statement about the negative effects of smoking behaviour (text condition), or a negative smoking statement accompanied by a picture (e.g., a blackened lung; image condition). Measures collected at week's end revealed that the smoking cards had no effects on perceived risk, but they increased worry and reports of intrusive thoughts, and had a small but reliable effect on plans to quit. Correlational data also supported the relationship between worry and motivation to quit, and we discuss the possible benefits of “normal” worrying and strategies for capitalising on the worry–motivation relationship to encourage smokers to abandon cigarettes.     

Analyzing Models of Career Decision Self-Efficacy: First-Order,Hierarchical, and Bifactor Models of the Career Decision Self-Efficacy Scale

The goal of the study was to examine the dimensionality of the Career Decision Self-Efficacy Scale Short Form (CDSES-SF, Betz et al. 1996). Integrating several previous findings from different cultures, we found that the bifactor structure of the CDSES-SF on a Hungarian sample of 649 respondents showed the best model fit. This structure includes a general CDSE factor covering 15 items and the original five specific factors (self-appraisal, occupational information, goal selection, planning, and problem solving) covering three items each. This short form of CDSES shows an acceptable model fit and appropriate reliability in terms of the Cronbach’s alpha and omega values. Regarding career decision self-efficacy, a large proportion of variance was explained by the general factor and to a smaller extent by the specific factors. These results can be considered as a first step in resolving the paradox of the dimensionality of CDSES-SF.     

A Population-Based Study of Children’s Well-Being and Health: The Relative Importance of Social Relationships,Health-Related Activities,and Income

This study investigated how various risk and protective factors interface with child health and well-being at the population level. Specifically, we examined the association of income, social-contextual variables, and indicators of health-related habits and activities to children’s life satisfaction and perceived overall health. Child data were collected via a self-report survey, the Middle Years Development Instrument, which was administered in three demographically diverse Canadian school districts to 5026 grade 4 students (83 % of the students had complete data and were included in the analyses). Multiple regression and mediation analyses were conducted to examine the joint associations of social relationships with adults and peers, nutrition and sleep habits, and after school sports activities with children’s satisfaction with life and perceived health. Results indicate that peer belonging and relationships with adults at home and school were the strongest predictors of life satisfaction. Furthermore, the (small) association between income and life satisfaction was mediated by social relationship variables. Child reports of perceived health were predicted by peer belonging, adult relationships (home, school, neighborhood), after-school team sports, and nutrition habits. The (small) association between income and health was mediated by social relationships and team sports participation. Findings are discussed in light of previous research on social determinants and socio-economic gradients of children’s health and life satisfaction.