Waiting for the bus: when base-rates refuse to be neglected

The paper reports the results from 16 versions of a simple probability estimation task, where probability estimates derived from base-rate information have to be modified by case knowledge. In the bus problem [adapted from Falk, R., Lipson, A., & Konold, C. (1994). The ups and downs of the hope function in a fruitless search. In G. Wright & P. Ayton (Eds.), Subjective probability (pp. 353-377). Chichester, UK: Wiley], a passenger waits for a bus that departs before schedule in 10% of the cases, and is more than 10 min delayed in another 10%. What are Fred's chances of catching the bus on a day when he arrives on time and waits for 10 min? Most respondents think his probability is 10%, or 90%, instead of 50%, which is the correct answer. The experiments demonstrate the difficulties people have in replacing the original three-category 1/8/1 partitioning with a normalized, binary partitioning, where the middle category is discarded. In contrast with typical studies of "base-rate neglect", or under-weighing of base-rates, this task demonstrates a reversed base-rate fallacy, where frequentistic information is overextended and case information ignored. Possible explanations for this robust phenomenon are briefly discussed.     

Two Is Not Always Better Than One: A Critical Evaluation of Two-System Theories

ABSTRACT— Over the past two decades, there has been an upsurge in theoretical frameworks alluding to the existence of two different processing systems that supposedly operate according to different rules. This article critically examines the scientific advance offered by these theories (in particular advances in the domains of reasoning, decision making, and social cognition) and questions their theoretical coherence as well as the evidence for their existence. We scrutinize the conceptual underpinnings of two-system models and explicate the assumptions underlying these models to see whether they are reasonable. We also evaluate the empirical paradigms used to validate two-system models and ponder about their explanatory strength and predictive power. Given the popularity of these models, we discuss the appeal of two-system theories and suggest potential reasons for their prevalence. We comment on the potential costs associated with these models and allude to the desired nature of potential alternatives. We conclude that two-system models currently provide little scientific advance, and we encourage researchers to adopt more rigorous conceptual definitions and employ more stringent criteria for testing the empirical evidence in support for two-system theories.     

Managing terror: differences between Jews and Arabs in Israel

Using telephone surveys, we examined exposure to terror, coping, and mental health response in randomly selected Jewish-Israelis (n = 100) and Arab-Israelis (n = 100) living in five Israeli cities affected by terrorism. Jewish-Israelis and Arab-Israelis were randomly selected for study participation and completed telephone surveys in May 2002, following an extended string of terror attacks and hostilities. Although terrorism is designed to target Jewish-Israelis, the rates of exposure were similar in the two groups. Arab-Israelis reported using a wider array of coping strategies, yet also endorsed more frequent PTSD and more severe depression symptoms than Jewish-Israelis. We examined a variety of demographic, ethnic, and religious predictors of different coping styles and found varying results. For example, acceptance coping was best predicted by Arab-Israeli ethnicity, being female, greater religiosity, and lower education. Predictors of mental health response to terror were also examined, with Arab-Israeli ethnicity, being female, adaptation coping and collaborative coping best predicting PTSD and depression symptoms. Arab-Israelis may not have the same access to overarching sources of patriotic support that are readily available to their Jewish compatriots, and civilian and economic inequity experienced by the Arab minority may add to a sense of diminished resources. Our findings justify outreach efforts to overlooked minorities at risk for posttraumatic distress. Women seem to be at particular risk for the development of mental health symptoms following terrorism, which should also be noted for outreach purposes.     

Sustained withdrawal behavior in clinic‐referred and nonreferred infants

To examine the relations between infants' sustained withdrawal behavior and children's mental health status and maternal and child relational behavior, 36 clinic‐referred and 43 control infants were evaluated. Families were visited at home, mother‐child free play and feeding interactions were videotaped, and mothers completed self‐report measures. Interactions were coded for sustained withdrawal using the Alarm Distress Baby Scale (ADBB; Guedeney and Fermanian, 2001) and for global relational patterns with the Coding of Interactive Behavior (CIB; Feldman, 1998). Higher ADBB scores were found for the referred group, with many infants (38.9% ) scoring above the clinical cutoff (vs. 11.6% in the control group). More negative relational patterns were found for the withdrawn group in terms of higher maternal intrusiveness, lower reciprocity, and lower child involvement. Associations were found between maternal and child behavior during play and feeding and child sustained withdrawal behavior at play. Sustained withdrawal also was associated with unpredictable child temperament and lower sense of parental self‐efficacy. Maternal depressive symptoms were higher in the referred group and correlated with maternal and child relational patterns. The findings contribute to the construct and discriminant validity of the CIB and the ADBB coding systems, and suggest that sustained withdrawal may serve as a risk indicator for early socioemotional disorders.     

Risk and Protective Factors in Child-to-Parent Violence: A Study of the YLS/CMI in a Spanish Juvenile Court

Journal of Child and Family Studies - Child to Parent Violence (CPV) is one of the crimes with the highest rates of increase in Spain in recent years, and has had a significant media and social...     

Pre-liver transplant psychosocial evaluation predicts post-transplantation outcomes

Psychosocial factors greatly impact the course of patients throughout the liver transplantation process. A retrospective chart review was performed of patients who underwent liver transplantation at Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center between 2002 and 2012. A composite psychosocial score was computed based on the patient’s pre-transplant evaluation. Patients were divided into two groups based on compliance, support and insight: Optimal psychosocial score and Non-optimal psychosocial score. Post-liver transplantation survival and complication rates were evaluated. Out of 100 patients who underwent liver transplantation at the Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center between 2002 and 2012, 93% had a complete pre-liver transplant psychosocial evaluation in the medical record performed by professional psychologists and social workers. Post-liver transplantation survival was significantly higher in the Optimal group (85%) as compared to the Non-optimal group (56%, p = .002). Post-liver transplantation rate of renal failure was significantly lower in the Optimal group. No significant differences were observed between the groups in other post-transplant complications. A patient’s psychosocial status may impact outcomes following transplantation as inferior psychosocial grades were associated with lower overall survival and increased rates of complications. Pre-liver transplant psychosocial evaluations are an important tool to help predict survival following transplantation.     

Personally-significant information affects performance only within the focus of attention: a direct manipulation of attention

It has been suggested that personally significant (PS) information interferes with performance only when presented within the focus of attention. However, this claim was never tested by a systematic manipulation of attention, but only by using correlative measures of its locus. We addressed this issue in two experiments, utilizing a cued visual search paradigm that allowed us to directly manipulate attention and to measure behavioral and physiological responses. One of the stimuli in the search display had a higher luminance value (i.e., was cued), and, orthogonally, one of the stimuli could be a PS or neutral name. When the cue did not predict target location, PS distractors mildly interfered with task performance, regardless of the cue's location. However, when the cue predicted target location, responses were facilitated for cued targets, indicating that attention was shifted to the cue. Importantly, PS distractors interfered with task performance and elicited enhanced orienting responses only when they were cued. This implies that PS information affects performance only when presented within but not outside the focus of attention.     

Attachment states of mind and the quality of young adults' sibling relationships

This report examines young adults' states of mind regarding their early attachment experiences in relation to the observed and perceived quality of their sibling relationships. Sixty sibling pairs (18-25 years of age) were (a) administered the Adult Attachment Interview (George, Kaplan, & Main, 1985), (b) videotaped during a conflict resolution task, and (c) asked to describe the quality of their relationship using the Adult Sibling Relationship Questionnaire (Stocker, Lanthier, & Furman, 1997). As hypothesized, dismissing states of mind were associated with lower levels of positive and negative affect while participants attempted to resolve an area of conflict with a sibling as well as with relatively low levels of reported warmth in the relationship. In contrast-but also in line with predictions-preoccupied states of mind were associated with heightened expression of negative affect toward a brother or sister, and the siblings of highly preoccupied individuals reported more conflict in their relationships. Findings provide further support for the importance of young adults' representations of childhood attachment experiences with respect to the quality of their adult relationships. In addition, this study extends previous findings regarding the significance of dismissing versus preoccupied states of mind by demonstrating that these dimensions are differentially associated with behavioral and self-reported aspects of sibling relationship quality in early adulthood.     

Can massive but passive exposure to faces contribute to face recognition abilities?

Recent studies have suggested that individuation of other-race faces is more crucial for enhancing recognition performance than exposure that involves categorization of these faces to an identity-irrelevant criterion. These findings were primarily based on laboratory training protocols that dissociated exposure and individuation by using categorization tasks. However, the absence of enhanced recognition following categorization may not simulate key aspects of real-life massive exposure without individuation to other-race faces. Real-life exposure spans years of seeing a multitude of faces, under variant conditions, including expression, view, lighting and gaze, albeit with no subcategory individuation. However, in most real-life settings, massive exposure operates in concert with individuation. An exception to that are neonatology nurses, a unique population that is exposed to--but do not individuate--massive numbers of newborn faces. Our findings show that recognition of newborn faces by nurses does not differ from adults who are rarely exposed to newborn faces. A control study showed that the absence of enhanced recognition cannot be attributed to the relatively short exposure to each newborn face in the neonatology unit or to newborns' apparent homogeneous appearance. It is therefore the quality--not the quantity--of exposure that determines recognition abilities.