Bayesian journey-to-crime modelling of single and multiple crime-type series in Baltimore County,MD

This study tested different Bayesian Journey-to-Crime (JTC) models on a sample group of 850 serial offenders apprehended in Baltimore County, MD from 1993 to 1997. In this research, Bayesian JTC models were being used to predict the home locations of the offenders. The sample group data included 133 assaults, 90 burglaries, 497 larcenies, 81 robberies, and 49 vehicle thefts. The main question this research aimed to answer was whether the addition of crimes of a different type to an existing crime series of a single type would result in more accurate and/or precise Bayesian JTC models. The standard practice by law enforcement has been to consider the same-type crime series only when modelling the anchor point of the offender. Similarly, in research, geographic profiles have been constructed exclusively with the same-type crime series. The results of this study clearly indicated that the inclusion of crimes of a different type into a single crime-type series will result in significantly more accurate and more precise Bayesian JTC models. In contrast, crime series with predominantly assault and burglary showed results that were inconclusive or indicated no significant differences. These results should encourage law enforcement agencies to re-evaluate their standard practice of constructing geographic profiles with only the same-type crime series. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Separating cue relevance from cue importance within models of judgment and decision making

Many investigations concerned with human decision making have centered their attention on the issues of cue integration and cue importance. Unfortunately, an equally important issue—that of cue relevance—has been either neglected or equated with the importance issue. Two experiments tested the ability of information integration theory (N. H. Anderson, 1981, Foundations of information integration theory, New York: Academic Press) to disentangle cue relevance and cue importance formally as well as empirically. The decision environment was divided into two components: aspects of the information present during a decision (information context) and aspects of the situation surrounding a decision (situation context). It was hypothesized that variations in information context would affect cue importance while changes in situation context would affect cue relevance. Furthermore, it was hypothesized that the weight parameter (w) of information integration theory would reflect the information context manipulations but not situation context manipulations. Results supported previous findings showing the influence of information context on w. As predicted situation context did not affect w; however, it did affect the variability of the responses to a cue's values. The relationship between perceived variability and situation context suggests that the scale dispersion parameter σ of information integration theory may be used as a measure of relevance (K. L. Norman, 1980, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 25, 289–310).     

The aftermath of Ford v. Wainwright

Whatever happened to Alvin Ford? This paper describes the aftermath of the Supreme Court's 1986 ruling in Ford v. Wainwright. The Ford decision held that exempting the mentally incompetent from execution is a matter of constitutional right, and hence the determination of who is competent for execution cannot be left solely in the hands of the executive branch of the government. We describe the hearing in Ford's case in federal district court that occurred after the Supreme Court's decision, the judge's ruling, and Ford's subsequent (and final) appeal. We conclude that despite the decision in Ford, it remains all but impossible for defense attorneys to prove that psychotic death row clients are incompetent for execution.     

Heart rate during group flooding therapy for PTSD

The objective of this study was to assess, via heart rate, the arousal levels of participants in group trauma reexposure therapy for posttraumatic stress disorder, and so to better understand this common mode of treatment, particularly in regards to its presumed curative factor, extinction. Six Vietnam combat-related PTSD inpatients participated twice weekly in group trauma reexposure therapy during which their electrocardiograms were recorded. Heart rate was quantified continuously off-line. Heart rates of participantsnot directly engaged in imaginal reexposure to their personal combat traumas consistently exhibited mild linear declines from the beginnings to the ends of the approximately 2.5 hour sessions. Participants actively engaged in personal combat trauma reexposure exhibited higher whole-session heart rates. Most also exhibited more specific elevation extending over the later portions of therapy sessions during which intensive reexposure usually occurred. Surprisingly, no patients exhibitedfocal increases in heart rate concurrent with periods of most intensive traumatic incident review as judged from videotape. Administering imaginal reexposure in a group context does not preclude substantial physiological (sympathetic) arousal, as is preconditional for extinction. Under conditions in which the actively engaged reexposure patient is reliably identified, group trauma reexposure therapy may not provide an opportunity for “vicarious” flooding in nonengaged participants.     

Shaping data collection congruent with experimental hypotheses

The influence of instructions and feedback from an experimenter on observational recordings of disruptive behavior was evaluated. Four subject-observers recorded four categories of disruptive behavior from videotapes of children in a classroom setting. Two sets of videotapes, labelled "baseline" and "treatment", were matched for rates of disruptive behavior in each category. The observers were told that two target behaviors were expected to decrease and the other two control behaviors were not expected to change during the treatment condition. During observational recording of treatment videotapes, the observers were given positive feedback when they reported decreases in the two target behaviors, and negative feedback when they reported either to change or increases in the two control behaviors. The target behaviors were recorded less frequently by observers, while recordings of control behaviors were unaffected during the treatment phase. These results suggest that contingent feedback to observers should be avoided as a possible source of bias in behavioral recordings.     

Behavior modification consultation in a Mexican-American school

Following consultation by two psychologists with an elementary school populated primarily by Mexican-American students, absenteeism was chosen as the first problem area to attempt to change. A between-groups experimental design was used to evaluate the effect of contigent rewards on the students' attendance. Analysis of the data showed no improvement in attendance. The results of the study were discussed in terms of (1) a more thorough behavior analysis of the absenteeism problem, (2) methodological restraints of a between-groups experimental design, (3) the need for consultants to be familiar with the community in which they work, and (4) relatedly, the success of the local school psychologist in implementing behavior modification programs.