A cross-cultural study of hindsight bias and conditional probabilistic reasoning

Hindsight bias is a mistaken belief that one could have predicted a given outcome once the outcome is known. Choi and Nisbett (2000 Choi, I. and Nisbett, R. E. 2000. Cultural psychology of surprise: Holistic theories and recognition of contradiction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79: 890–905. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) reported that Koreans showed stronger hindsight bias than Americans, and explained the results using the distinction between analytic cognition (Westerners) and holistic cognition (Easterners). The purpose of the present study was to see whether hindsight bias is stronger among Easterners than among Westerners using a probability judgement task, and to test an “explicit–implicit” hypothesis and a “rule-dialectics” hypothesis. We predicted that the implicit process is more active among Easterners to generate hindsight bias, and that Easterners are more dialectical thinkers, whereas Westerners are more rule-based thinkers. French, British, Japanese, and Korean participants were asked to make probabilistic judgements in a Good Samaritan scenario (Experiment 1) and in a scenario including conditional probabilistic judgement (Experiment 2). In both Experiments, we presume that the implicit revision of causal models is made just by being given unexpected outcome information, and that explicit revision is made by being asked to point out possible factors for an unexpected outcome. In the results Easterners showed greater hindsight bias generally and it was greater in the Good Samaritan scenario. We conclude that the reason why hindsight bias was lower among Westerners is primarily that they tried to follow a rule to suppress the bias.     

Empirically based psychology of Islam: summary and critique of the literature

In this paper, we systematically review the growing empirically based psychology of Islam. We arrive at 10 conclusions: (l) Islam is a multidimensional religion; Islam might mean different things to different people, and some people might adhere to some of its elements but not to others; (2) Islam is similar to, but is different from, other religions; (3) Islam's role in the lives of Muslims seems mostly positive; (4) Some types of Islamic religiousness are negative; (5) The empirical findings have not been translated yet into clinical applications; (6) Most of studies conducted among Muslims provide only a birds-eye view of Islam; (7) Empirical studies of Muslims are scarce; (8) Empirical research on negative types of religiousness among Muslims is sparse; (9) The majority of research in this field has been restricted to convenient samples; (10) Several important topics with implications for Muslims deserve further consideration, and there is a need for more varied research methods in studies of Muslims. The implications of these findings and the limitations of this review are discussed.     

Semantic Fluency Performance of Patients with Cortical and Subcortical Neurodegenerative Diseases

Previous studies using the Animals Fluency Test have shown that dementia patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD), Huntington's disease (HD), or Parkinson's disease (PD) produce fewer correct words and have smaller semantic cluster sizes than controls or PD patients without dementia (PDND). Although the number of correct words generated by the patients with AD was positively correlated with mental status, cluster size, surprisingly, was not. To increase word output and increase the reliability of estimates of cluster size, semantic fluency was reexamined using the Supermarket Fluency Task. Overall, patients with HD or PD with dementia (PDD) exhibited reduced cluster sizes compared to older controls or PDND patients, but cluster sizes were only marginally reduced for patients with AD. These effects were evident only for female participants, because the cluster sizes for elderly control men were substantially smaller than those of elderly women. For the female patients with AD, cluster size was correlated with mental status, but the relationship was nonlinear. Cluster size was normal for mildly demented patients with AD, but much reduced for moderately or severely demented participants. In contrast to a previous report, in the present study the proportion of category labels generated was increased for patients with HD with dementia but not for patients with AD. This finding questions one line of evidence that semantic memory stores undergo “bottom-up” degradation in AD. Together with previous results, these findings indicate that semantic cluster size reflects efficiency of access to semantic knowledge which is similarly compromised in subcortical and cortical diseases.     

Age Differences in the Magnitude of the Attentional Blink

When people attend to a target in a rapid sequence of items, their perception of a subsequent target is impaired for about 500 ms. This is termed the attentional blink. In the present experiment, a dual task rapid serial presentation task (Raymond, Shapiro & Arnell, 1992) was used as a measure of inhibitory function of younger and older adults. We found that the attentional blink was larger among older adults as compared to younger adults, supporting Hasher and Zacks' (1988) inhibitory deficit hypothesis and current models of the attentional blink.     

‘The Ostrich Problem’: Motivated Avoidance or Rejection of Information About Goal Progress

Monitoring one's current standing with respect to goals can promote effective self‐regulation. However, the present review suggests that there is an ostrich problem such that, in many instances, people have a tendency to “bury their head in the sand” and intentionally avoid or reject information that would help them to monitor their goal progress. For example, people with diabetes avoid monitoring their blood glucose, and few people monitor their household energy consumption, check their bank balances, keep track of what they are eating and so on. While situational constraints can explain some problems with progress monitoring, we use a self‐motives framework to posit that the decision to avoid monitoring often represents the product of an interaction between different motives. For example, the desire to accurately assess progress may conflict with the desire to protect or enhance the self. The present review collates evidence pertaining to the ostrich problem, identifies different motives that underlie the decision to monitor versus not monitor goal progress, illustrates how the ostrich problem might be integrated into models of self‐regulation, and provides suggestions for future research. In so doing, the review advances our understanding of the nature and determinants of intentionally deficient monitoring.     

Long-term learning in dyslexic children

There is now extensive evidence that the learning processes of dyslexic children show some abnormalities, generally consistent with failure to completely automatise skills. Two studies are reported in which a group of adolescent dyslexic children and a group of normal children matched for age and IQ undertook long-term training on a keyboard spatial task and a choice reaction task respectively. It was concluded that, following extended training, the dyslexic children had normal “strength” of automatisation (as assessed by resistance to unlearning, by ease of relearning after one year, and by dual task performance) but that their initial and their final performance (as assessed by speed and accuracy) were impaired. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that dyslexic children suffer from cerebellar deficit.     

Why rejection hurts: a common neural alarm system for physical and social pain

Numerous languages characterize 'social pain', the feelings resulting from social estrangement, with words typically reserved for describing physical pain ('broken heart', 'broken bones') and perhaps for good reason. It has been suggested that, in mammalian species, the social-attachment system borrowed the computations of the pain system to prevent the potentially harmful consequences of social separation. Mounting evidence from the animal lesion and human neuroimaging literatures suggests that physical and social pain overlap in their underlying neural circuitry and computational processes. We review evidence suggesting that the anterior cingulate cortex plays a key role in the physical-social pain overlap. We also suggest that the physical-social pain circuitry might share components of a broader neural alarm system.     

Hippocampal and neocortical contributions to memory: advances in the complementary learning systems framework

The complementary learning systems framework provides a simple set of principles, derived from converging biological, psychological and computational constraints, for understanding the differential contributions of the neocortex and hippocampus to learning and memory. The central principles are that the neocortex has a low learning rate and uses overlapping distributed representations to extract the general statistical structure of the environment, whereas the hippocampus learns rapidly using separated representations to encode the details of specific events while minimizing interference. In recent years, we have instantiated these principles in working computational models, and have used these models to address human and animal learning and memory findings, across a wide range of domains and paradigms. Here, we review a few representative applications of our models, focusing on two domains: recognition memory and animal learning in the fear-conditioning paradigm. In both domains, the models have generated novel predictions that have been tested and confirmed.     

Visual masking and RSVP reveal neural competition

A test visual stimulus is harder to recognize when another stimulus is presented in close temporal vicinity; presenting stimuli in close spatial vicinity of a test stimulus reduces its visibility; presenting a stimulus to one eye can render invisible another stimulus presented to the other eye; and perceiving one interpretation of an ambiguous image prevents the simultaneous perception of other visual interpretations. A single, neurophysiological theory, which may be called 'neural competition' might explain all these phenomena: when two alternative neural visual representations co-exist in the brain, they compete against each other.     

When children are more logical than adults: experimental investigations of scalar implicature

A conversational implicature is an inference that consists of attributing to a speaker an implicit meaning that goes beyond the explicit linguistic meaning of an utterance. This paper experimentally investigates scalar implicature, a paradigmatic case of implicature in which a speaker's use of a term like Some indicates that the speaker had reasons not to use a more informative term from the same scale, e.g. All; thus, Some implicates Not all. Pragmatic theorists like Grice would predict that a pragmatic interpretation is determined only after its explicit, logical meaning is incorporated (e.g. where Some means at least one). The present work aims to developmentally examine this prediction by showing how younger, albeit competent, reasoners initially treat a relatively weak term logically before becoming aware of its pragmatic potential. Three experiments are presented. Experiment 1 presents a modal reasoning scenario offering an exhaustive set of conclusions; critical among these is participants' evaluation of a statement expressing Might be x when the context indicates that the stronger Must be x is true. The conversationally-infelicitous Might be x can be understood logically (e.g. as compatible with Must) or pragmatically (as exclusive to Must). Results from 5-, 7-, and 9-year-olds as well as adults revealed that (a) 7-year-olds are the youngest to demonstrate modal competence overall and that (b) 7- and 9-year-olds treat the infelicitous Might logically significantly more often than adults do. Experiment 2 showed how training with the modal task can suspend the implicatures for adults. Experiment 3 provides converging evidence of the developmental pragmatic effect with the French existential quantifier Certains (Some). While linguistically-sophisticated children (8- and 10-year-olds olds) typically treat Certains as compatible with Tous (All), adults are equivocal. These results, which are consistent with unanticipated findings in classic developmental papers, reveal a consistent ordering in which representations of weak scalar terms tend to be treated logically by young competent participants and more pragmatically by older ones. This work is also relevant to the treatment of scalar implicatures in the reasoning literature.