A signal detection framework for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts

In this paper I formulate an approach for evaluating probabilistic forecasts in terms of signal detection theory. Signal detection theory provides a powerful perspective for this type of problem, and a rich empirical background including methodological tools as well as an extensive body of research in many domains. I propose procedures which emphasize the maximization of expected utility for the decision maker who uses the forecasts. Further, I suggest approaches to obtaining indices of calibration and resolution within this framework. I also present arguments that the proposed indices will exhibit the same basic properties as do decompositions of Brier's (1950, Monthly Weather Review, 78, 1–3) mean probability score. However, the properties may be reflected in different ways, and hence, the present methods may lead to different conclusions about forecasting ability. Finally, I argue that the use of an expected utility loss function makes this approach more appropriate for practical applications as well as for theoretical research than other procedures with more arbitrary loss functions.     

The role of personality in crowding research

An analysis of variance was carried out on Ss who were tested with a letter-cancellation task under four experimental conditions, two levels each of crowding and disconfirmation of expectancy. Eight types of Ss were distinguished based on sex and high or low scores on E and N. The crowding situation and disconfirmation of expectancy was found to affect extraverts significantly more than introverts, as predicted by the Brebner-Cooper model. It was confirmed that personality is an important variable in crowding research.     

Suprathreshold binocular interactions for grating patterns

Binocular interactions of suprathreshold grating patterns have been investigated using a reaction time measure of contrast detection. Simple reaction times were determined for monocular and binocular viewing conditions over a contrast range from .63 to near threshold. The results from all subjects showed binocular summation for contrast levels near threshold, but there was considerable variation across subjects for contrast levels above threshold. Some subjects showed summation over the entire contrast range, but other subjects showed either binocular inhibition or binocular facilitation for some range of contrast levels. The pattern of binocular interaction for a given subject was consistent for several spatial frequencies. The differences in types of interaction between subjects, the variation in magnitude of binocular interaction with contrast level for each subject, and the data from experiments involving stimulation of noncorresponding retinal areas show that the binocular interactions found for suprathreshold stimuli cannot be accounted for on the basis of probability, and must, therefore, result from physiological interactions between the two eyes. These interactions have been investigated further under conditions of (1) induced fixation disparity, (2) horizontal gratings, and (3) orthogonally oriented gratings.     

A structured approach to microcomputer system design

A simple “building block” philosophy for construction of high-performance microcomputer-based systems utilizing I/O functional definition and a structured implementation of MOS/LSI semiconductor devices.     

Age differences in coping resources and satisfaction with life among middle-aged,young-old,and oldest-old adults

The authors examined age differences in perceived coping resources and satisfaction with life across 3 older-adult age groups (45-64, 65-74, and 75 years and older). The 98 participants represented healthy, socially active, community-residing adults. Group comparisons were made on 12 individual coping scales, and an overall coping resource effectiveness score was computed. No significant differences were found for 11 of the coping resources or for overall coping resource effectiveness. Similar consistencies in life satisfaction were found across the 3 age groups. The findings indicate that (a) for healthy adults, the oldest old cope at least as effectively as their younger counterparts, despite their likelihood of encountering increased levels of stress; and (b) psychologically, old age may be viewed as a time of resilience and fortitude.     

Hotep's Story: Exploring the Wounds of Health Vulnerability in the US

A wide variety of forms of domination hasresulted in a highly heterogeneous health riskcategory, ``the vulnerable.' The study of healthinequities sheds light on forces thatgenerate, sustain, and alter vulnerabilities toillness, injury, suffering and death. Thispaper analyzes the case of a high-risk teenfrom a Boston ghetto that illuminatesintersections between ``race' and class in theconstruction of vulnerability in the US.Exploration of his ``wounds' helps specify howlarge-scale social and cultural forces becomeembodied as individual experience of disparatehealth risk. The case demonstrates that healthinequities would not occur if resources –employment, income, wealth, education, housing,profiling in the legal system, and health care– were more justly managed in keeping withstandards outlined in the Universal Declarationof Human Rights. Professional responses to the``wounds of vulnerability' may reveal importantaspects of who we are and what our work asscholars, practitioners, and advocates mustbecome.     

The effects of adult aging and induced positive and negative mood on planning

Changes in executive functions have been found in older adults and also in young adults experiencing positive or negative mood states. The current study investigated the hypothesis that older adults would show greater executive function impairment following mood induction than young adults. Ninety-six participants (half aged 19-37, half aged 53-80) completed a neutral, positive, or negative mood induction procedure, followed by the Tower of London planning task. Significant interactions were found between age and mood such that older adults showed greater planning impairment than young adults in both the positive and negative mood conditions. Emotionally salient events occurring before testing may interfere with executive function in older adults.