A signal detection framework for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts

In this paper I formulate an approach for evaluating probabilistic forecasts in terms of signal detection theory. Signal detection theory provides a powerful perspective for this type of problem, and a rich empirical background including methodological tools as well as an extensive body of research in many domains. I propose procedures which emphasize the maximization of expected utility for the decision maker who uses the forecasts. Further, I suggest approaches to obtaining indices of calibration and resolution within this framework. I also present arguments that the proposed indices will exhibit the same basic properties as do decompositions of Brier's (1950, Monthly Weather Review, 78, 1–3) mean probability score. However, the properties may be reflected in different ways, and hence, the present methods may lead to different conclusions about forecasting ability. Finally, I argue that the use of an expected utility loss function makes this approach more appropriate for practical applications as well as for theoretical research than other procedures with more arbitrary loss functions.     

Comparative judgments with numerical reference points

A model of subjective magnitude comparisons is explored, which assumes that subjects compare symbolic stimulus magnitudes with respect to a reference point. The reference point may be established implicitly by the question (e.g., “Which is larger?” vs “Which is smaller?”) or be presented explicitly (e.g., “Choose the stimulus closer to X.”). The model was tested in five experiments in which subjects judged which of two comparison digits was closer to (or further from) a reference digit. Regression analyses in three experiments revealed that reaction time depended on the ratio of the distances from the comparison items to the reference point. The other two experiments provided evidence that subjects can strategically vary the processes by which they compare stimuli to a reference point. The results indicated that subjects can perform various types of “analog arithmetic” using either the linear number scale or a nonlinear scale of subjective digit magnitude.     

Visual imagery and evoked-responses

Summary Two experiments were performed to determine whether a physiological correlate of visual imagery could be measured from visually-evoked-responses (VERs). High and Low imagery groups were used. There was no direct effect of imagery, although some differences between the groups emerged. These differences are thought to be due to factors associated with imaging, but not imagery per se.     

Parafoveal word perception: A case against semantic preprocessing

The present experiment investigated semantic information extraction in parafoveal word perception. An ambiguous word (bank) was presented in foveal vision, and simultaneously a disambiguating word (water, money) was presented in the parafovea. Subjects were required to make a forced choice between two phrases, and the task was constructed so that a correct choice could be made if semantic information about both the foveal and parafoveal word had been obtained. However, the results indicated that the forced-choice results could be explained by two factors: identification of the parafoveal word and correct guessing. Hence, it was concluded that those models of reading which rely on unconscious semantic preprocessing of parafoveal words were not supported.     

Teacher reactions to school-based consultation services: A multivariate analysis

The impact of consultation services on teachers' preferences for consultation versus referral approaches and upon teachers' perceptions of severity for common acting out, withdrawal, and academic types of student problems were investigated. The subjects were 96 teachers whose public and parochial schools were matched and randomly assigned to treatment and control groups. Following a 14-week period during which advanced school psychology graduate students served as consultants in the treatment schools, the Pupil Problem Behavior Inventory (PPBI) was administered to all teachers. The results of a repeated measures MANOVA analysis indicated that the teachers in the treatment group rated the acting out and academic problems on the PPBI as significantly less severe than did teachers in the control group. The subjects in both the treatment and control groups indicated a significant preference for consultation rather than referral services for all types of student problems presented in the PPBI. There was a moderate, positive correlation between perceived problem severity and teacher preference for referral rather than consultation services. The study's results were interpreted as supportive of the consultation model.     

A twin study of personality and temperament during middle childhood

In a study of 105 same-sex twin pairs, ages 7 to 10 years, maternal ratings on 23 bipolar scales yielded six factors designated as compliant morality, applied cognitive, sociability, emotionality, tough-mindedness, and activity-distractibility. Analyses by twin pairs (68 identical, 37 fraternal) indicated that correlations for identical pairs were significantly higher than fraternal pairs on all but one factor: tough-mindedness. Profile analyses for the six factors indicated that the profiles of scores across the factors were more concordant for the identical twin pairs. Correlations obtained from the individual scales produced differences between the identical and fraternal twin pairs as well. Overall, the data suggested that several components and the total organization of those components of personality and temperament are genetically influenced.     

A CPI comparison of engineers and managers

Seventy-one male employees of three high-technology content product industries in northern Utah were divided into three contrast groups: engineers, engineering-trained managers, and non-engineering-trained managers. The California Psychological Inventory was administered and multivariate analysis of variance performed on seven preselected CPI scales. Results revealed that nonengineering managers scored significantly higher than engineers on scales Dominance, Capacity for Status, Social Presence, and approached significance on Sociability. Engineering-managers also scored significantly higher than engineers on Dominance, and significantly higher than other managers on Psychological Mindedness. A multivariate main-effect significant p < .001 to predict group membership was found. Engineering-managers share with other managers a confident, persuasive, and aggressive self-presentation combined with a preference for leadership roles. Their elevation on Psychological Mindedness, however, suggests a more pragmatic analytical and less intuitive approach to management situations.