An evaluation of the reliability of probability judgments across response modes and over time

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes: numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably for all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects overconfidence during the course of the experiment.     

Correction processes in early reaching: Reaches by infants to prismatically displaced targets

Summary A comparison was made between trajectories of reaches to visual targets by 6-months-old infants, with and without lateral prismatic displacement. In the No Prism condition, the major element of the movement veered towards the target, confirming the results of Mathew and Cook (1990). In the Prism condition, the prism did not affect hand position or movement direction at the beginning of the major element, but a lateral displacement was evident by the end of the element. This is taken as evidence that shifts in trajectory during the element were not due to visual guidance. It is suggested instead that these shifts may reflect correction based upon somatic feedback about position in relation to the visually specified goal of the movement. Evidence that the hand approached the virtual target supports the suggestion that any visual guidance was confined to the approach phase of the reach. Nevertheless, it appears that visual guidance was operating at this stage, since movement direction was displaced away from the virtual target and towards the real target.     

Divorced mothers' gender role ideology,locus of control,and disciplinary patterns

This study examined gender role ideology, locus of control, and disciplinary patterns of divorced mothers. Data were gathered from 135 divorced mothers and their elementary school-aged children. Eighty-five percent of the subjects were white and 15% were nonwhite (African American, Hispanic, and Native American). Stepwise regression analyses were used to determine variations in child-rearing patterns explained by locus of control and gender ideology. Child-rearing patterns included four parental attitudes. The basic hypothesis that gender role ideology and locus of control are personal resources that influence child-rearing patterns of divorced mothers received clear support. These findings suggest that the relation between single parenthood and child socialization patterns are complex and that sociocognitive beliefs play an important role in single mothers' child-rearing choices.     

Gender differences in self-evaluations of information about current affairs

This study examines how gender is related to self-evaluations of information to discuss current social and political issues. The sample is one of predominantly white (96%) college graduates. Using alumni samples, we look at how members of four classes that span 20 years evaluate their knowledge to hold conversations on a variety of public affairs issues ranging from the Strategic Defense Initiative to government funding of abortion. We find gender differences, with men perceiving themselves more knowledgeable in conversations and women less so. We raise the possibility that they are “doing gender.” The implications of these findings are explored.     

Concurrent Use of Cigarettes,Alcohol, and Coffee1

The interrelationships between cigarette, alcohol, and coffee use were examined in 307 U.S. army trainees and 304 U.S. enlisted army personnel. Usage patterns indicated distinct gender differences in this occupational setting. Among women, cigarette use and alcohol consumption were positively correlated; whereas for men, cigarette and coffee use were positively related. For both males and females, alcohol and coffee use were only weakly correlated. As demonstrated in other studies, nonsmokers showed a consistent pattern of abstention from coffee and alcohol or moderate alcohol use.     

Acquisition of spatial knowledge under conditions of temporospatial discontinuity in young and elderly adults

Summary Young and elderly adults acquired route information from a sequence of slides depicting a walk through an actual environment. The accuracy of their distance knowledge after viewing the slides was compared for a normal presentation and a presentation with temporospatial discontinuity. No differences between age groups were noted under normal presentation conditions, but young adults were more accurate under conditions of temporospatial discontinuity. Results were interpreted in terms of an age-related decrement in the operational capacity of working memory. They were also viewed as supportive of a constructivist-representational theory of spatial learning.This research was conducted while the senior author served as Principal Investigator for National Institute on Aging Grant No. 1 ROI AG05169, Aging and Spatial Cognition, sponsored by the National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA     

Hispanics in Ivy: Assessing identity and perceived threat

Membership in social groups is an important aspect of the self-concept, as a number of theorists such as Tajfel (1981) have recognized, and ethnic identity is a major exemplar of such groupings. In the present research, we focus on the particular case of Hispanic identity and the degree to which that identity may be threatened for first-year Hispanic students who enter a predominantly Anglo university. Forty-five Hispanic students (17 female, 28 male) at two Ivy League universities were interviewed early in their first year to assess Hispanic identity, collective self-esteem (Luhtanen & Crocker, 1988), and perceived threats to Hispanic identity. In addition, we considered the degree to which strength of cultural background relates to self-esteem and to perceptions of threat. The majority of students claimed Hispanic as an important identity. Strength of cultural background generally acted as a buffer to perceived threat, particularly for men. Cultural background was also related to collective self-esteem for men but not for women, even though Hispanic identity was more important for women than men. The results attest to the importance of both gender and ethnicity to self-definition and self-esteem, as well as to the complexity of the relationships among these variables.We thank Tracey Revenson as well as the members of the Identity Research Seminar at the CUNY Graduate Center for their comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

A Behavior Systems View of Conditioned States during Long and Short CS–US Intervals

In the behavior systems view, a long CS–US interval should differentially condition a general search mode and related behavior, while a short CS–US interval should differentially condition a focal search mode and related behavior. Two experiments paired a long or a short CS with food, and then, during an extinction test, compounded the CS with an unconditioned probe-stimulus of a rolling ball-bearing. Presuming that the long CS differentially conditions a general search mode, and that unconditioned contact of a moving stimulus is characteristic of that mode, presentation of the long CS should facilitate interaction with the ball-bearing. Similarly, presuming that a short CS differentially conditions a focal search mode, and that feeder-directed responses are characteristic of this mode, presentation of a short CS should facilitate nosing in the food-tray. Consistent with these predictions, ball-bearing contact increased in rats receiving the long CS, while nosing in the food-tray was higher with the short CS.     

Participant roles and the processing of verbs during sentence comprehension

This paper explores the nature of thematic information made available when a verb is accessed during sentence comprehension. Following Shapiro, Zurif, and Grimshaw (1987), a cross-modal lexical decision (interference) task was employed to examine whether either the number of argument structures or the number of participant (thematic) roles inherent in a verb cause an increase in processing load upon access of the verb. It was determined that there was no evidence for such an increased processing load covarying with the number of argument structures of the verb, at least for those verb types examined in this study. However, there was an increase in processing load as a direct function of the number of participant roles carried by the verb. It is concluded that the participant roles (thematic roles associated with the central meaning of the verb) are stored with the representation of a verb and are made immediately, available upon access of the verb for further processing during comprehension.The first author gratefully acknowledges discussion and advice from Adele Goldberg and the support of grant T32 DC 00041 in pursuing this work. The second author acknowledges the support of NIH grant RO1 DC00494 for the work presented in this paper, and the helpful comments and criticisms of a reviewer.