‘Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!’: Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task

Human choice under uncertainty is influenced by erroneous beliefs about randomness. In simple binary choice tasks, such as red/black predictions in roulette, long outcome runs (e.g. red, red, red) typically increase the tendency to predict the other outcome (i.e. black), an effect labeled the “gambler's fallacy.” In these settings, participants may also attend to streaks in their predictive performance. Winning and losing streaks are thought to affect decision confidence, although prior work indicates conflicting directions. Over three laboratory experiments involving red/black predictions in a sequential roulette task, we sought to identify the effects of outcome runs and winning/losing streaks upon color predictions, decision confidence and betting behavior. Experiments 1 (n = 40) and 3 (n = 40) obtained trial‐by‐trial confidence ratings, with a win/no win payoff and a no loss/loss payoff, respectively. Experiment 2 (n = 39) obtained a trial‐by‐trial bet amount on an equivalent scale. In each experiment, the gambler's fallacy was observed on choice behavior after color runs and, in experiment 2, on betting behavior after color runs. Feedback streaks exerted no reliable influence on confidence ratings, in either payoff condition. Betting behavior, on the other hand, increased as a function of losing streaks. The increase in betting on losing streaks is interpreted as a manifestation of loss chasing; these data help clarify the psychological mechanisms underlying loss chasing and caution against the use of betting measures (“post‐decision wagering”) as a straightforward index of decision confidence. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Choosing housemates and justifying age,gender, and ethnic discrimination

This study examines the explanations and justifications offered by those engaged in selecting housemates. The rationale for the research follows the recent housing demographic, whereby shared living has become increasingly popular among young adults in Western countries. This study sought to address the surprising lacuna in the extant research through the application of discursive psychology to understanding prejudice and discrimination within the context of contemporary social and political sanctions against openly discussing prejudice. Data were drawn from interviews with young New Zealanders aged from early twenties to early thirties who were experienced with house sharing. Detailed results are presented involving discrimination based on age, gender, and ethnicity. The study found that rigid narrow preferences were stated with respect to age, gender was less important, and ethnicity was talked about cautiously, especially if there was the possibility of significant cultural differences or language barriers.     

An experimental study on fear of public speaking using a virtual environment.

This paper examines a necessary condition for successful exploitation of a virtual environment (VE) in therapeutic intervention for fear of public speaking. The condition is that clients experience a degree of anxiety in the VE that is similar to what they would have been expected to experience in a similar real world setting. We refer to this as a "presence" response. The experimental study involved 20 people who were confident public speakers and 16 who were phobic, assessed on a standard psychological scale. Half of each group spoke within a VE depicting an empty seminar room, and the other half within the same room but populated by a neutrally behaving virtual audience of five people. Three responses were measured--a questionnaire-based measure of anxiety, a measure of self-focused attention on somatic responses, and actual heart rate. On all responses, the people with phobia showed a significant increase in signs of anxiety when speaking to the virtual audience compared to the empty room, whereas the confident people did not. The result was strong in spite of the relatively low representational and behavioral fidelity of the virtual characters.     

Quantifier comprehension in corticobasal degeneration

In this study, we investigated patients with focal neurodegenerative diseases to examine a formal linguistic distinction between classes of generalized quantifiers, like "some X" and "less than half of X." Our model of quantifier comprehension proposes that number knowledge is required to understand both first-order and higher-order quantifiers. The present results demonstrate that corticobasal degeneration (CBD) patients, who have number knowledge impairments but little evidence for a deficit understanding other aspects of language, are impaired in their comprehension of quantifiers relative to healthy seniors, Alzheimer's disease (AD) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD) patients [F(3,77)=4.98; p<.005]. Moreover, our model attempts to honor a distinction in complexity between classes of quantifiers such that working memory is required to comprehend higher-order quantifiers. Our results support this distinction by demonstrating that FTD and AD patients, who have working memory limitations, have greater difficulty understanding higher-order quantifiers relative to first-order quantifiers [F(1,77)=124.29; p<.001]. An important implication of these findings is that the meaning of generalized quantifiers appears to involve two dissociable components, number knowledge and working memory, which are supported by distinct brain regions.     

Collaboration in associative recognition memory: using recalled information to defend "new" judgments

S. E. Clark, A. Hori, A. Putnam, and T. J. Martin (2000) showed that collaboration on a recognition memory task produced facilitation in recognition of targets but had inconsistent and sometimes negative effects regarding distractors. They accounted for these results within the framework of a dual-process, recall-plus-familiarity model but showed only weak evidence to support it. The present results of 3 experiments present stronger evidence for Clark et al.'s dual-process view and also show why such evidence is difficult to obtain.     

Viewpoint and orientation influence picture recognition in the blind

In the first three experiments, subjects felt solid geometrical forms and matched raised-line pictures to the objects. Performance was best in experiment 1 for top views, with shorter response latencies than for side views, front views, or 3-D views with foreshortening. In a second experiment with blind participants, matching accuracy was not significantly affected by prior visual experience, but speed advantages were found for top views, with 3-D views also yielding better matching accuracy than side views. There were no performance advantages for pictures of objects with a constant cross section in the vertical axis. The early-blind participants had lower performance for side and frontal views. The objects were rotated to oblique orientations in experiment 3. Early-blind subjects performed worse than the other subjects given object rotation. Visual experience with pictures of objects at many angles could facilitate identification at oblique orientations. In experiment 5 with blindfolded sighted subjects, tangible pictures were used as targets and as choices. The results yielded superior overall performance for 3-D views (mean, M = 74% correct) and much lower matching accuracy for top views as targets (M = 58% correct). Performance was highest when the target and matching viewpoint were identical, but 3-D views (M = 96% correct) were still far better than top views. The accuracy advantage of the top views also disappeared when more complex objects were tested in experiment 6. Alternative theoretical implications of the results are discussed.     

The classification of violence risk

The Classification of Violence Risk (COVR) is an interactive software program designed to estimate the risk that a person hospitalized for mental disorder will be violent to others. The software leads the evaluator through a chart review and a brief interview with the patient. At the end of this interview, the software generates a report that contains a statistically valid estimate of the patient's violence risk-ranging from a 1% to a 76% likelihood of violence-including the confidence interval for that estimate, and a list of the risk factors that the program took into account to produce the estimate. In this article, the development of the COVR software is described and several issues that arise in its administration are discussed.