Distribution of probability assessments for almanac and future event questions

This study examines the distribution and calibration of probability assessments given to general knowledge questions and question concerning future events. Two experiments revealed that: (1) People use certainty responses less frequently in response to questions concerning then-future events than to general knowledge questions even when the then-future event questions are easier than the general knowledge questions. (2) Indonesian students previously thought to have little grasp of probabilistic thinking, are able to give realistic probability assessments for then-future events. Cultural and task influences on our findings are discussed in relation to a procedural model of the processes involved in answering a question. We conclude that, as most applications of decision analysis involve future uncertainty, research in probability assessment should concentrate on questions concerning future events rather than on general knowledge questions.     

Maturity of thinking of 15-year-old girls and boys as assessed from the reasons given for answers to questions about their beliefs

204 Finnish children (98 from the capital, 106 from a rural area) participated in a longitudinal study concerning the development of their world-view. In interviews carried out at age 15, subjects were asked to give reasons/grounds for their beliefs (attitudes, opinions). The reasons given for answers relating to 17 topics (e.g., life values, vocational intentions, beliefs about important topics in everyday life, global problems, and the experiential character of human life) were rated in terms of maturity of thinking (MOT) about that topic. The relaliability of the MOT sum scale was ≥0.90. MOT was unrelated to most the ability tests included, and to parents' standard of living, but was related to school achievement (including achievement 3 years later), teacher's ratings, subjects' reading and TV-watching habits and other information-seeking activities, and acceptance of untraditional values. It was also related to self-image variables in females but not in males. The possible preferability of ecologically valid topic in studies of maturity of thinking is discussed.     

ANXIETY AROUSING MESSAGES AND EGO-INVOLVEMENT AS DETERMINANTS OF COMMUNICATIVE PREDISPOSITIONS

A theoretically integrated rationale was generated combining affiliation, ego-involvement, and balance-restoring responses and research was conducted testing hypotheses: (1) slightly involved subjects will demonstrate a greater desire to communicate upon receipt of an anxiety-arousing discrepant message than highly involved subjects; and (2) slightly involved subjects will demonstrate a greater desire to communicate upon receipt of a nonanxiety-arousing discrepant message than highly involved subjects. Results confirmed both hypotheses and the findings were discussed in terms of a proposed theoretic framework identifying the effects of message impact on communicative predispositions.