Studies in subjective probability l: Prediction of random events

When students are asked to predict the outcome of a random event, where all alternatives are equally probable (lotteries), they tend to choose central, "representative" values, and avoid extreme ones. In ten informal experiments, it is shown how this pattern of choices is influenced by various procedural and structural changes in the basic task. The results show that guessing behavior can be described as a kind of absolute judgment, subject to grouping, anchoring and context effects. Of the two general prediction heuristics originally proposed by Kahneman & Tversky (1973), "representativeness" applies better than "availability". In fact, a major strategy of guessing is apparently to eschew numbers with prominent, "non-random" properties, which at the same time are highly available to the subjects.     

Studies in subjective probability IV: probabilities, confidence, and luck

Probably because of formal advantages, probabilities are often regarded as more basic than other dimensions of attitudes towards uncertain events (beliefs, confidences, doubts, statements of hope and fear, good and bad luck etc.). In a series of experiments, some of these concepts were empirically compared by asking students to give their views on a variety of uncertain events, ranging from future examinations to lotteries. Confidence turned out to be closely related to perceived chance, but very imperfectly to the subjective probability of the event in question, except when all outcomes are judged equally due to chance. Judgments of good and bad luck were still more independent of the probabilities involved, even in a chance situation, It is concluded that subjective probability plays a secondary role in assessments of confidence as well as of luck, and is poorly suited as a common measure of the varieties of subjective uncertainty. A final experiment suggests the subjective and statistical conceptions of uncertainty to have partially opposing connotations. "An uncertain future" seems to be subjectively interpreted as an open future, restricted possibilities of prediction.     

Overestimation of subjective probabilities

Abstract.— When asked to estimate the probability of outcomes of draws from a binomial population, student subjects tend to report p values that clearly exceed the objective ones. The probability of specific binomial sequences was found to be even more overestimated, while the answers became much more conservative when the outcomes were grouped into a few categories. These findings were replicated in a second experiment, where the probability of heights in a male and a female student population was estimated. When the task was to estimate frequency of occurrence, instead of probability, the answers became more realistic. The conclusion is drawn that the direct p estimates are relatively independent of frequency judgments, the chief determinant being the properties of the particular sample to be evaluated, irrespective of the number and probabilities of other possible samples.     

Communicating Intentions Through Nonverbal Behaviors Conscious and Nonconscious Encoding of Liking

The fundamental components of interpersonal transactions at the nonverbal level often include the cognitively held intention of one person to increase or decrease affiliation with his or her partner, the encoding of this intention into behavioral displays, and the decoding of the behavioral displays by the other. Nonverbal encoding of relational information may be conducted at less than conscious levels of information processing although intentions may be held consciously. A study was conducted in which naive confederates were induced to either increase or decrease their displays of liking for their partner. It was found that confederates’intentions to show increased or decreased liking toward their partners were positively correlated with the partners’liking for the confederate. However, less than one quarter of the confederates could demonstrate an accurate conscious awareness of the behaviors they used and how they used them. Of this small number, those who were given the conscious intention of showing decreased liking demonstrated the most conscious awareness of their nonverbal behaviors.     

Holism vs. Wholism

Ervin Laszlo's Science and the Akashic Field claims that there is a shift in Zeitgeist that allows us to view a field that entails coherence among residents of the universe, residents that hitherto have seemed far apart both in space and time. I agree with this claim but suggest that we need to clear up several ambiguities that have hindered understanding and therefore acceptance. Basic to clarification are an understanding of waves, spectra, and the formulations of quantum physics.