A sampling approach to biases in conditional probability judgments: beyond base rate neglect and statistical format

Conditional probability judgments of rare events are often inflated. Early accounts assumed a general deficit in using statistical base rates. More recent approaches predict improvement when problems are presented in frequency format or refer to natural categories. The present theory focuses on sampling processes. Experiment 1 showed that a seeming advantage of frequency over probability formats is due to a confounded factor, the need to mentally transform stimulus samples. An information search paradigm was used in Experiment 2. When sampling by the predictor, the probability to be estimated, p(criterion/predictor), was conserved in the samples and judgments were quite accurate. However, when sampling by the criterion, the low base-rate event was strongly overrepresented, accounting for the entire bias. Judgments were quite sensitive to the sampled data, but failed to take sampling constraints into account, as shown in Experiments 3 and 4.     

Effects of directionality in deductive reasoning: I. The comprehension of single relational premises

Four experiments involving 123 university students tested directionality effects in the comprehension of spatial relations, quantified statements, and propositional connectives with a sentence-picture verification task. Presentation of the referents of terms in the statements was separated by 1 s, and presentation order was congruent or incongruent with the order of terms in the statement. Some relations showed faster verification times for congruent display order, others for incongruent display order, and still others showed no directionality effect. The authors proposed a 2-step process model for the construction of semantic representations of relational statements, in which a reference object is established first, and then the second object is attached in relation to it. This theory explains the various directionality effects as a general preference to process information about the reference object before information about the target object.     

A feature-sampling account of the time course of old-new recognition judgments

This article describes the feature-sampling theory of recognition (FESTHER), a new model of the time course of recognition judgments based on a model of the time course of perceptual processing in categorization (K. Lamberts, 1995, 1998). FESTHER is applied to previous results and to data from 4 old-new recognition experiments. Experiments 1 and 2 provided a preliminary test of the model's ability to explain recognition judgments of simple objects under response deadlines. Experiments 3 and 4 involved a response-signal procedure to elicit recognition judgments at different time lags after presentation of a stimulus. Simple objects and words were used as stimuli in Experiments 3 and 4, respectively. The new model accounts well for the data from the 4 experiments and offers a parsimonious account of the time course of recognition judgments based on the time-dependent availability of stimulus information.     

The role of attention in motion extrapolation: are moving objects 'corrected' or flashed objects attentionally delayed?

Objects flashed in alignment with moving objects appear to lag behind [Nijhawan, 1994 Nature (London) 370 256-257]. Could this 'flash-lag' effect be due to attentional delays in bringing flashed items to perceptual awareness [Titchener, 1908/1973 Lectures on the Elementary Psychology of Feeling and Attention first published 1908 (New York: Macmillan); reprinted 1973 (New York: Arno Press)]? We overtly manipulated attentional allocation in three experiments to address the following questions: Is the flash-lag effect affected when attention is (a) focused on a single event in the presence of multiple events, (b) distributed over multiple events, and (c) diverted from the flashed object? To address the first two questions, five rings, moving along a circular path, were presented while observers attentively tracked one or multiple rings under four conditions: the ring in which the disk was flashed was (i) known or (ii) unknown (randomly selected from the set of five); location of the flashed disk was (i) known or (ii) unknown (randomly selected from ten locations). The third question was investigated by using two moving objects in a cost-benefit cueing paradigm. An arrow cued, with 70% or 80% validity, the position of the flashed object. Observers performed two tasks: (a) reacted as quickly as possible to flash onset; (b) reported the flash-lag effect. We obtained a significant and unaltered flash-lag effect under all the attentional conditions we employed. Furthermore, though reaction times were significantly shorter for validly cued flashes, the flash-lag effect remained uninfluenced by cue validity, indicating that quicker responses to validly cued locations may be due to the shortening of post-perceptual delays in motor responses rather than the perceptual facilitation. We conclude that the computations that give rise to the flash-lag effect are independent of attentional deployment.     

Task demands and limb apraxia in stroke

The present study was designed to examine the frequency and severity of apraxia in patients with left- or right-hemisphere stroke in both pantomime and imitation conditions and to compare the frequency of apraxia in each stroke group across the three patterns of apraxia described in Roy's model (Roy, 1996). Ninety-nine stroke patients and 15 age-matched healthy adults performed eight transitive gestures to pantomime and to imitation. Gestural performance was quantified as accuracy on five performance dimensions; a composite score, an arithmetic combination of the five performance dimensions, was used as an index of the overall accuracy. Analyses revealed a comparable proportion of patients in each stroke group were classified as apraxic in the imitation condition, but a higher proportion of left stroke patients were apraxic in the pantomime condition. The severity of apraxia in each stroke group and the performance dimensions affected were, however, comparable. Analyses of the patterns of apraxia (pantomime alone, imitation alone or apraxia in both conditions) revealed a higher frequency of apraxia in both stroke groups for the pattern reflecting apraxia in both conditions, indicating that a disruption at the movement execution stage of gesture performance was most common.     

Fifty Years of Prison Suicide in Austria: Does Legislation Have an Impact?

The absolute and relative frequency of suicides in jails and prisons in Austria over the 50 years from 1947 to 1996 is described. Important legislational changes regarding the criminal justice system are discussed with regard to possible consequences for the incidence of prisoners' suicides. Within the five decades a significant increase in the absolute numbers of jail and prison suicides was evident in spite of the considerable decrease in the total inmate population. Therefore, the suicide rate of inmates of correctional facilities increased significantly. Possible reasons for this phenomenon are discussed in relation to changes of the criminal law.     

Numerical competence in rats (Rattus norvegicus): Davis and Bradford (1986) extended

The task of rats (Rattus norvegicus) was to enter 1 box of a defined ordinal number among an array of boxes. In Experiments 1 and 2, the rats correctly chose the 4th box from arrays of 6 and 12 boxes, respectively. In Experiments 3 and 4, in which the ordinal number of the correct box was increased in a graduated fashion, they were able to select the correct box even when its position was higher than 10th among 12 and 18 boxes, respectively. In Experiment 5, the possibility that the rats had used cues to the openability of the box doors was ruled out. In Experiments 6 and 7, the rats succeeded in the task even when the total number of boxes was varied from trial to trial. In Experiment 8, both small- and large-sized boxes were used to control for the possibility of using the cumulative length of the boxes as a cue. Overall, the results suggest that performance was based on numerical cues. Intentional acts were occasionally observed but appeared not to be essential for solving the task.     

Age and emotional response to the Northridge earthquake: a longitudinal analysis

Cross-sectional studies have found older adults to have lower levels of emotional distress after natural disasters. The maturation hypothesis suggests that older adults are less reactive to stress events, whereas the inoculation hypothesis argues that prior experience with disaster is protective. One hundred and sixty-six adults aged 30 to 102 were interviewed regarding the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Longitudinal data were available on depressed mood before and after the earthquake. The maturation hypothesis was generally not supported. The young-old were least depressed; however, this age difference was present prior to the earthquake. The old-old showed lowest levels of earthquake-specific rumination, but age did not buffer the relationship between damage exposure and rumination. The inoculation hypothesis was supported for depressed mood. Prior earthquake experience was related to lower postearthquake depression scores.     

Thought suppression and its effects on thought frequency, appraisal and mood state in individuals with obsessive-compulsive disorder

Leading models of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) implicate thought suppression as a key factor in the escalation and persistence of the disorder. This experiment examined the effects of suppression on the frequency of obsessional thoughts in 50 individuals with a primary diagnosis of OCD, and also investigated the effects of participants' appraisals regarding their failures in thought control on distress about intrusive thoughts and on mood. Participants' most upsetting obsessional thought was primed and they then monitored its occurrence over two 4-min intervals. In the first interval, half of the participants were instructed to suppress their obsessional thought and half were instructed not to suppress any thoughts. In the second interval, all participants were given the 'Do Not Suppress' instructions. Participants rated their suppression effort and discomfort over thought occurrences after each interval and recorded their appraisals of thought recurrences during the first interval. Mood state was then reassessed. No ironic effect of suppression on frequency was noted. However, negative appraisals of thought recurrences were associated with more discomfort over thought occurrences and more negative mood at Time 2. These findings suggest that interpretations regarding failures in thought control may be of central importance in understanding obsessional problems.