Prediction and prejudice

Evidence that supports a theory may be available to the scientist who constructs the theory and used as a guide to that construction, or it may only be discovered in the course of testing the theory. The central claim of this essay is that information about whether the evidence was accommodated or predicted affects the rational degree of confidence one ought to have in the theory. Only when the evidence is accommodated is there some reason to believe that the theoretical system was ‘fudged’ to fit the evidence in a way that weakens support. This weakening is an objective matter, but not one that can be conclusively determined by examining the contents of the theory and its logical relationship to the evidence. Consequently, there is less reason to believe a theory on the basis of that evidence when it is known that the evidence was accommodated than there would be if it was known instead that the same evidence had been predicted.     

Scotching the Dutch Book Argument

Consistent application of coherece arguments shows that fair betting quotients are subject to constraints that are too stringent to allow their identification with either degrees of belief or probabilities. The pivotal role of fair betting quotients in the Dutch Book Argument, which is said to demonstrate that a rational agent's degrees of belief are probabilities, is thus undermined from both sides.     

Efficacy of behavioral management and patient education on vascular access cleansing compliance in hemodialysis patients

Compared four treatment conditions to test their ability to enhance compliance with vascular access cleansing (VAC) procedures in a group of 56 hemodialysis patients. The conditions were patient education, behavioral management with monetary incentive, patient education/behavioral management, and attention control. Behavioral observers rated VAC behavior at pretreatment, posttreatment 1-month follow-up, and 1-year follow-up. Knowledge of VAC procedures was also assessed via a questionnaire at pretreatment and posttreatment. Data were analyzed using repeated-measures multivariate analyses of variance. Results indicated that the patients in the education/behavioral, behavioral, and education groups gave significantly more correct answers on our VAC knowledge questionnaires at posttreatment than did patients in the attention control group. Further, patients in the education/behavioral and behavioral groups completed significantly more VAC steps at posttreatment and 1-month follow-up than did patients in the education group and in the attention control group. Differences were not maintained at 1-year follow-up, although more than 50% of the patients were lost to follow-up. Implications of the present findings for behavioral and educational interventions are discussed.     

A further validation of the bem sex role inventory: A multitrait-multimethod study

The present study used a multitrait-multimethod technique [D.T. Campbell and D. W. Fiske (1959) “Convergent and Discriminant Validation by the Multitrait-Multimethod Matrix,” Psychological Bulletin, 56, 81–105] to examine Bem's [(1974) “The Measurement of Psychological Androgyny,” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 42, 152–162] use of an instrumental-expressive dichotomy to conceptualize the Masculinity and Femininity scales of the Bem Sex Role Inventory as statistically orthogonal constructs. Results indicate that while perhaps reliable, masculinity and femininity lack clear convergent and discriminant validity. Therefore, Bem's contention that masculinity and femininity are orthogonal constructs is questioned. Results are discussed in light of trait- vs. method-driven research.     

Inquiry into intentional systems I: Issues in ecological physics

Summary The role of intention in guiding the behavior of goal-directed systems is a problem that continues to challenge behavioral science. While it is generally agreed that intentional systems must be consistent with the laws of physics, there are many obvious differences between inanimate, physical systems and sentient, intentional systems. This suggests that there must be constraints over and above those of physics that govern goal-directed behavior. In this paper it is suggested that generic properties of self-organizing mechanisms may play a central role in the origin and evolution of intentional constraints. The properties of self-organizing systems are first introduced in the context of simple physical systems and then extended to a complex (biological) system. Whereas behavior of an inanimate physical system is lawfully determined by force fields, behavior of an animate biological system is lawfully specified by information fields. Biological systems are distinguished from simple physical systems in terms of their ubiquitous use of information fields as special (biological and psychological, social, etc.) boundary conditions on classical laws. Unlike classical constraints (boundary conditions), informational constraints can vary with time and state of the system. Because of the nonstationarity of the boundary conditions, the dynamic of the system can follow a complex trajectory that is organized by a set of spatially and temporally distributed equilibrium points or regions. It is suggested that this equilibrium set and the laws that govern its transformation define a minimal requirement for an intentional system. One of the benefits of such an approach is that it suggests a realist account for the origin of semantic predicates, thereby providing a basis for the development of a theory of symbolic dynamics. Therefore, the principles of self-organization provide a comprehensive basis for investigating intentional systems by suggesting how it is that intentions arise, and by providing a lawful basis for intentional behavior that reveals how organisms become and remain lawfully informed in the pursuit of their goals.     

Towards a general theory of representation

Summary The models of science are representations of a part of reality. Every science has its own specific rules of constructing models, but there are many common rules that must be followed. These rules are to be part of what may be called a general theory of representation. This paper discusses some general aspects of representation that must be considered before such a general theory can be created. There are five sections: (1) an introduction to the topic of representation in general; (2) an overview of some general types of representation, such as goal-directed and self-organizational representations; (3) a short discussion of representation in some specific disciplines; (4) some formal aspects of representations; and (5) a discussion of epistemological aspects of representation, especially scientific reduction and mental causation.This paper was written during participation in the Research Project Mind and Brain, at the Centre for Interdisciplinary Research, University of Bielefeld, BRD.     

Visual perception and the guidance of locomotion without vision to previously seen targets

Two experiments were performed to assess the accuracy and precision with which adults perceive absolute egocentric distances to visible targets and coordinate their actions with them when walking without vision. In experiment 1 subjects stood in a large open field and attempted to judge the midpoint of self-to-target distances of between 4 and 24 m. In experiment 2 both highly practiced and unpracticed subjects stood in the same open field, viewed the same targets, and attempted to walk to them without vision or other environmental feedback under three conditions designed to assess the effects on accuracy of time-based memory decay and of walking at an unusually rapid pace. In experiment 1 the visual judgments were quite accurate and showed no systematic constant error. The small variable errors were linearly related to target distance. In experiment 2 the briskly paced walks were accurate, showing no systematic constant error, and the small, variable errors were a linear function of target distance and averaged about 8% of the target distance. Unlike Thomson's (1983) findings, there was not an abrupt increase in variable error at around 9 m, and no significant time-based effects were observed. The results demonstrate the accuracy of people's visual perception of absolute egocentric distances out to 24 m under open field conditions. The accuracy of people's walking without vision to previously seen targets shows that efferent and proprioceptive information about locomotion is closely calibrated to visually perceived distance. Sensitivity to the correlation of optical flow with efferent/proprioceptive information while walking with vision may provide the basis for this calibration when walking without vision.     

'It's who you know, not what you know!': Penetrating the credentialling ideology

The kinds of messages teachers give students regarding the value of credentials in the job-getting package during a period of high youth unemployment are explored. The response made by students to the credentialling ideology promoted in schools, and their construction of the job-getting formula, are also described. The validity of the two versions of job-getting strategies is considered in the light of evidence provided by a number of empirical research projects. The superiority of student knowledge in this area is used to present a case for a critical and democratic education which appropriates and legitimises the student voice.     

Having it all? Combining work and family in a male and a female profession

Are women in a female-dominated profession more successfully able to combine work and family obligations than women in a male-dominated profession? To explore this question, a comparison was made between the family status and careers of 747 women librarians (a female-dominated profession) and those of 449 women MBAs (a male-dominated profession). It was expected that the librarians would marry earlier and have more children. This general prediction was not supported. Over half of both groups of women were married, and after controlling for age, there were no differences in number of children. However, many women without children in both groups reported that they would like to be mothers. This disparity between wanting children and not having them was more common for women MBAs than women MLSs. MBAs and librarians were about equally likely to have had job interruptions, but librarians were more likely to have worked part-time. Reasons for an interruption to full-time work were as likely to be for problems finding (full-time) work as for family responsibilities. Librarians' salaries were much lower, but job interruptions and part-time work had a more negative effect on the salaries of women in business. In sum, the data suggest that many of the women surveyed have not combined motherhood with a professional career and that it is probably somewhat more difficult to combine a family with a career in business than with a career in library science.     

Solution-focused Ideas in Social Work

A group of social workers from Helsinki City Social Service Department working in an ordinary community-based social welfare office were trained to use basic solution-focused ideas in their work with people seeking living allowances and with families in child welfare. These social workers' relationships with their clients were compared to their previous similar relationships and to a control group. There were no significant changes in goal achievement but in line with solution-focused orientation there were increases in positive statements, goal focus, and shared views between social workers and their clients.