意外考试悖论的博弈分析

本文从博弈的角度分析了意外考试悖论,指出了以往解决方案的不足,给出了一种新的方案。根据这个新方案,考试悖论的推理中使用了倒推法和弱下策反复剔除法。本文接着讨论了这些博弈推理方法的不足。然后把这个新的博弈方案用到卡片悖论和方格悖论这些考试悖论的变种里。最后指出,在考试悖论里,比起倒推法,弱下策剔除法是引起悖论的更根本的原因。     

Associations among Challenge Stress,Hindrance Stress,and Employees' Innovative Work Behavior: Mediation Effects of Thriving at Work and Emotional Exhaustion

Employees' innovative work behavior (IWB) is one of the key factors in improving organizational competitiveness. Previous studies show that challenge and hindrance stress can impact employees' IWB, but our understanding of the exact mechanism underlying the impact is still limited. The present study employed four scales (Challenge and Hindrance Stress Scale, Thriving at Work Scale, Chinese Emotional Exhaustion Scale, and Employee Innovative Behavior Scale) to collect questionnaire data from 789 employees in diverse organizations via an online platform. A two-path mediation model was constructed. The results show that: (a) challenge stress positively predicted thriving at work and IWB; (b) thriving at work played a partial mediation effect between challenge stress and IWB; (c) hindrance stress negatively predicted thriving at work and positively predicted emotional exhaustion; and (4) hindrance stress did not directly impact IWB while thriving at work and emotional exhaustion were main mediators in the relationship between hindrance stress and IWB. These findings suggest that employees should sensibly cope with different work stresses, while managers should plan work tasks scientifically and give employees adequate opportunities to learn and rest in order to keep them in a positive state to solve problems and work creatively.     

Constituent-morpheme priming: Implications from the morphology of two-kanji compound words

Abstract: The diversity in the morphological structure of two‐kanji compound words is a matter of special concern for models of the Japanese mental lexicon. This study discusses two proposals for models of the Japanese mental lexicon – Hirose’s (1992, 1994, 1996 ) hypotheses and a Japanese lemma‐unit version of the multilevel interactive‐activation framework – in terms of their ability to cope with this diversity. As the proposals make different predictions concerning constituent‐morpheme priming, patterns of facilitation were examined in two experiments with five word‐formation principles as experimental conditions. Experiment 1, using the long stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) of 3000 ms employed by Hirose (1992 ), only found significant differences between the first‐ and second‐element conditions in one of the word‐formation conditions. Experiment 2, using a short SOA of 250 ms, confirmed the pattern of priming obtained in Experiment 1. These results are more consistent with the prediction from the Japanese lemma‐unit model.     

Ethnic Differences in Grade Trajectories During the Transition to Junior High

The transition from elementary to junior high school is difficult for some children, as indicated by a drop in grades in the new school setting from the beginning to end of the year. Finer-grain analysis of grade trajectories in the first year of junior high may reflect important differences among groups. In the present study, variables predicting linear and quadratic grade trajectories over the seventh grade were examined using a structural equation model (SEM, AMOS-4) and curve estimation procedures. Participants were 214 boys and 259 girls entering junior high (52% Anglo, 36% Hispanics, primarily of Mexican descent, and 12% Blacks). Three trajectory patterns were observed: “sliders,” students who showed a fairly steady grade decline over the year (characteristic of Anglos), “steadies,” students who varied little over the year (characteristic of Blacks), and “rebounders,” students whose grades dropped to a minimum in the fourth 6-week period, then showed limited recovery (characteristic of Hispanics). In the SEM, a lower intercept (representing the average of sixth grade grades) was associated with minority ethnic/racial status (Hispanic or Black), using more emotional discharge to cope, having a lower percentage of adults in the support network, poorer family functioning, and greater depression. Being Black was associated with a positive path coefficient to the linear slope of the grade trajectory, while a negative path coefficient was associated with using more emotional discharge in coping. The quadratic element (drop in grades with some recovery) was more pronounced for Hispanic participants, less pronounced for Black participants, and more pronounced when poorer family functioning was reported. Curve estimation procedures confirmed these ethnic/racial group differences. Reasons for such differences and their implications for schools and families are discussed.     

Levi on Causal Decision Theory and the Possibility of Predicting One's Own Actions

Isaac Levi has long criticized causal decisiontheory on the grounds that it requiresdeliberating agents to make predictions abouttheir own actions. A rational agent cannot, heclaims, see herself as free to choose an actwhile simultaneously making a prediction abouther likelihood of performing it. Levi is wrongon both points. First, nothing in causaldecision theory forces agents to makepredictions about their own acts. Second,Levi's arguments for the ``deliberation crowdsout prediction thesis' rely on a flawed modelof the measurement of belief. Moreover, theability of agents to adopt beliefs about theirown acts during deliberation is essentialto any plausible account of human agency andfreedom. Though these beliefs play no part inthe rationalization of actions, they arerequired to account for the causalgenesis of behavior. To explain the causes ofactions we must recognize that (a) an agentcannot see herself as entirely free in thematter of A unless she believes herdecision to perform A will cause A,and (b) she cannot come to a deliberatedecision about A unless she adoptsbeliefs about her decisions. FollowingElizabeth Anscombe and David Velleman, I arguethat an agent's beliefs about her own decisionsare self-fulfilling, and that this can beused to explain away the seeming paradoxicalfeatures of act probabilities.     

Authoritarianism and Political Impoverishment: Deficits in Knowledge and Civic Disinterest

Past research shows that authoritarian individuals hold strong opinions about a variety of political and social issues, such as race relations and military conflict. What has not been established, though, is the amount of general political knowledge that authoritarians possess. In this study, three groups of college students were administered Altemeyer's Right-Wing Authoritarianism (RWA) scale; most of them also received items assessing general political knowledge and specific knowledge about the 2000 presidential election, as well as items assessing interest in politics. Relative to students with low RWA scores, those with high scores possessed less political knowledge; moreover, they expressed less interest in learning about politics. In general, authoritarianism was unrelated to how individuals got their political information or how credible they found their sources. The implication that authoritarians hold strong attitudinal beliefs with weak political knowledge is discussed.     

小学生加法口算速度和广度的发展研究

以180名1至6年级小学生为被试考察了加法口算速度和广度的发展。结果表明小学生被试加法口算的速度和广度均随年级的增长而提高。1至4年级加法口算速度的增长率较高,4至6年级增长率较低,发展减缓。加法口算广度的发展在1至4年级之间增长幅度较大;在4至6年级之间增长率降低,年级差异不显著。实验结果的分析还表明,小学生被试数字广度的发展和口算速度的提高是促进加法口算广度发展的两个重要因素。     

中学生职业兴趣的结构及其特点

参考国内外有关资料,设计适合我国中学生的职业兴趣测验。对309名在校中学生测查结果的因素分析表明,共存在六个因素,可以解释为现实型（R)、研究型 (I)、艺术型 (A)、社会型 (S)、经营型 (E)和常规型(C),这与霍兰德的六种职业类型一致。但六种兴趣之间的关系与霍兰德的职业六边形不完全一致。进一步的分析表明,初三以上的中学生的职业兴趣已出现明显分化。年级和性别因素对职业兴趣均有显著影响,年级与性别的交互作用不显著。     

基于行为的绩效评定方法的研究进展

从20世纪60年代至今,基于行为的绩效评定一直是各类组织的主要绩效评定方法。基于工作结果的非判断性绩效测量有其难以克服的局限,各种基于工作行为的判断性绩效测量方法相继开发出来。行为指标的筛选成为研究的主要问题之一。组织公民行为、区分作业绩效与关系绩效等研究,向基于行为的绩效评定提出了新的问题。