How bad is a 10% chance of losing a toe? Judgments of probabilistic conditions by doctors and laypeople

We presented a Web questionnaire to 139 physicians and medical researchers and 109 laypeople. The subjects made judgments of badness and importance of prevention for eight medical conditions at each of seven different probability levels. By assuming that the response to each of the 56 risks was monotonically related to transformations of the probability and of the disutility of the condition, we could assess the relative effect of probability and disutility on each subject's judgments. Physicians' judgments were more sensitive than laypeople's judgments to changes in probability. Older and female laypeople were less sensitive to probability (and correspondingly, more responsive to differences in severity among medical conditions). Laypeople varied more than physicians in their responsiveness to probability. These results point to general individual differences in the effect of probability on evaluations of medical risks. They may also provide insight into causes and noncauses of physician-patient miscommunication.     

Schizophrenia and deliberate self-harm: a systematic review of risk factors

Deliberate self-harm (DSH) is a strong predictor of suicide in schizophrenia. The aim of this review was to identify risk factors for DSH in schizophrenia. This systematic review of the international literature examined cohort and case-control studies of patients with schizophrenia or related diagnoses that reported DSH as an outcome. Studies were identified by searching electronic databases and reference lists, and by consulting international experts. Fourteen studies met the eligibility criteria. Of the 29 variables examined by two or more studies, five (past or recent suicidal ideation, previous DSH, past depressive episode, drug abuse or dependence, and higher mean number of psychiatric admissions) were associated with an increased risk of DSH, and one (unemployment) was associated with a reduced risk. Schizophrenic patients with these risk factors need careful follow-up and monitoring, with treatment of any associated comorbid depression or drug abuse. Large, prospective studies of DSH in schizophrenia are needed to further define risk factors and to build on the findings of this review.     

Emotional intensity of idiographic sad memories in depression predicts symptom levels 1 year later

When cued with generic happy and sad words, depressed individuals have been found to articulate contextually impoverished memories of autobiographical events. Although this pattern predicts a worse symptomatic course of disorder in some depressed samples, longitudinal findings with the cue-word paradigm are inconsistent. To address the etiological significance of autobiographical memories outside the cue-word paradigm, the authors used an idiographic interview in which depressed participants generated memories of their happiest and saddest lifetime events. Each memory was coded for detail and emotional intensity. At a 1-year follow-up, participants' levels of depressive symptoms were reassessed. Lower emotional intensity of saddest memories predicted higher levels of depressive symptoms at follow-up. Several implications for understanding sadness and emotional disclosure in depression are discussed.     

Are there interactions among dysfunctional beliefs in obsessive compulsive disorder?

Contemporary cognitive models of obsessive-compulsive disorder emphasize the importance of various types of dysfunctional beliefs, such as beliefs about inflated responsibility, perfectionism and the importance of controlling one's thoughts. These beliefs have been conceptualized as main effects, each influencing obsessive-compulsive symptoms independent of the contributions of other beliefs. It is not known whether beliefs interact with one another in their influence on obsessive-compulsive symptoms. To investigate this issue, data from 248 obsessive-compulsive disorder patients were analyzed. Dependent variables were the factor scores on the 4 Padua Inventory subscales. Predictor variables were the factor scores from the 3 factors (inflated responsibility, perfectionism and controlling one's thoughts) of the Obsessive Beliefs Questionnaire and their 2- and 3-way interactions. Regression analyses revealed significant main effects; in almost all analyses one or more of inflated responsibility, perfectionism, and controlling one's thoughts factors predicted scores on the Padua factors even after controlling for general distress. There was no evidence that beliefs interact in their effects on obsessive-compulsive symptoms, thereby providing a relatively unusual instance in which a simpler explanation (main effects only) is just as powerful as a more complex model.     

The effect of manipulated sympathy and anger on left and right frontal cortical activity

The present research extended past research demonstrating that approach-motivated anger is associated with greater left than right frontal cortical activity. Because past research had examined difference scores between left and right frontal activity, it was unable to test whether approach-motivated anger increased left activity, decreased right activity, or both. In addition, the present research examined a potential moderator of the effect of insult on left frontal activity. That is, it tested whether sympathy for an insulting person would reduce the left frontal activity that occurs following being insulted. Results indicated that left frontal activity was increased and right frontal activity was decreased by the insult. Moreover, these effects were inhibited when high levels of sympathy were first aroused.     

The associative memory deficit of older adults: further support using face-name associations

Previous studies have established an associative deficit hypothesis (Naveh-Benjamin, 2000), which attributes part of older adults' deficient episodic memory performance to their difficulty in creating cohesive episodes. In this article, the authors further evaluate this hypothesis, using ecologically relevant materials. Young and old participants studied name-face pairs and were then tested on their recognition memory for the names, faces, and the name-face pairs. The results extend the conditions under which older adults exhibit an associative deficit. They also show that reduced attentional resources are not the sole mediator of this deficit.     

Partition-edit-count: naive extensional reasoning in judgment of conditional probability

The authors provide evidence that people typically evaluate conditional probabilities by subjectively partitioning the sample space into n interchangeable events, editing out events that can be eliminated on the basis of conditioning information, counting remaining events, then reporting probabilities as a ratio of the number of focal to total events. Participants' responses to conditional probability problems were influenced by irrelevant information (Study 1), small variations in problem wording (Study 2), and grouping of events (Study 3), as predicted by the partition-edit-count model. Informal protocol analysis also supports the authors' interpretation. A 4th study extends this account from situations where events are treated as interchangeable (chance and ignorance) to situations where participants have information they can use to distinguish among events (uncertainty).