The probability of causal conditionals

Conditionals in natural language are central to reasoning and decision making. A theoretical proposal called the Ramsey test implies the conditional probability hypothesis: that the subjective probability of a natural language conditional, P(if p then q), is the conditional subjective probability, P(q/p). We report three experiments on causal indicative conditionals and related counterfactuals that support this hypothesis. We measured the probabilities people assigned to truth table cases, P(pq), P(p notq), P( notpq) and P( notp notq). From these ratings, we computed three independent predictors, P(p), P(q/p) and P(q/ notp), that we then entered into a regression equation with judged P(if p then q) as the dependent variable. In line with the conditional probability hypothesis, P(q/p) was by far the strongest predictor in our experiments. This result is inconsistent with the claim that causal conditionals are the material conditionals of elementary logic. Instead, it supports the Ramsey test hypothesis, implying that common processes underlie the use of conditionals in reasoning and judgments of conditional probability in decision making.     

Work-family conflict: experiences and health implications among immigrant Latinos

Work-family conflict research has focused almost exclusively on professional, White adults. The goal of this article was to expand the understanding of culture and industry in shaping experiences and consequences of work-family conflict. Using in-depth interview data (n = 26) and structured survey data (n = 200) from immigrant Latinos employed in the poultry processing industry, the authors evaluated predictions drawn from emerging models emphasizing the influence of cultural characteristics such as collectivism and gender ideology on work-family conflict. Results indicated that immigrant Latinos in poultry processing experienced infrequent work-to-family conflict; both the level and the antecedents of work-to-family conflict differed by gender, with physical demands contributing to greater conflict for women but not men. In addition, there was little evidence that work-family conflict was associated with health in this population. These results demonstrate how traditional models of work-family conflict need to be modified to reflect the needs and circumstances of diverse workers in the new global economy.     

The role of attention in the formation of auditory streams

There is controversy over whether stream segregation is an attention-dependent process. Part of the argument is related to the initial formation of auditory streams. It has been suggested that attention is needed only to form the streams, but not to maintain them once they have been segregated. The question of whether covert attention at the beginning of a to-be-ignored set of sounds will be enough to initiate the segregation process remains open. Here, we investigate this question by (1) using a methodology that does not require the participant to make an overt response to assess how the unattended sounds are organized and (2) structuring the test sound sequence to account for the covert attention explanation. The results of four experiments provide evidence to support the view that attention is not always required for the formation of auditory streams.     

Deployment of spatial attention to words in central and peripheral vision

Four perceptual identification experiments examined the influence of spatial cues on the recognition of words presented in central vision (with fixation on either the first or last letter of the target word) and in peripheral vision (displaced left or right of a central fixation point). Stimulus location had a strong effect on word identification accuracy in both central and peripheral vision, showing a strong right visual field superiority that did not depend on eccentricity. Valid spatial cues improved word identification for peripherally presented targets but were largely ineffective for centrally presented targets. Effects of spatial cuing interacted with visual field effects in Experiment 1, with valid cues reducing the right visual field superiority for peripherally located targets, but this interaction was shown to depend on the type of neutral cue. These results provide further support for the role of attentional factors in visual field asymmetries obtained with targets in peripheral vision but not with centrally presented targets.     

Perceptual visual skills in young highly skilled basketball players

A simple method was designed to evaluate visual abilities such as disance visual acuity, binocular horizontal visual field, simple and choice visual reaction times, and stereoscopic vision in skilled 11- to 13-yr.-old basketball players participating in a 15-day summer training camp. On a test battery, visual abilities were monitored in 473 players of the Spanish Basketball Federation over a 5-yr. period. The players showed outstanding scores on distance visual acuity and stereoscopic vision, and good visual reaction times and horizontal visual fields. When scores were compared by sex and age, significant differences on certain visual measures were observed. Many layers showed crossed eye-hand dominance. Visual screening programs may help promote visual health among junior basketball players and could be used for performance training.     

Futile debate on assessment of field dependence-independence

A long-standing debate on assessment has troubled research on field dependence-independence. The main arguments and a recent measurement proposal by Riding, et al., are revised to illustrate the futility of this debate and to defend the strength of the cognitive style dimension.     

Expert-novice differences in cognitive and execution skills during tennis competition

This study deals with decision and execution behavior of tennis players during competition. The study is based on the expert-novice paradigm and aims to identify differences between both groups in the decision-making and execution variables in serve and shot actions in tennis. Six expert players (elite Spanish tennis players) and six novice players (grade school tennis players) took part in this study. To carry out this study, the observation protocol defined by McPherson and Thomas in 1989, in which control, decision-making and execution variables were included, was used, where it was applied to the performance of the tennis player in a real match situation. In the analysis, significant differences between experts and novices in decision-making and execution variables are found wherein it can be observed that experts display a greater ability to make the appropriate decisions, selecting the most tactical responses to put pressure on the opponent. Expert tennis players were also able to carry out forceful executions to their opponent with greater efficiency, making the opponent's response to a large extent more difficult. These findings are in accordance with those of McPherson and colleagues.     

Contextualism,Contrastivism, Relevant Alternatives,and Closure

Contextualists claim two important virtues for their view. First, contextualism is a non-skeptical epistemology, given the plausible idea that not all contexts invoke the high standards for knowledge needed to generate the skeptical conclusion that we know little or nothing. Second, contextualism is able to preserve closure concerning knowledge – the idea that knowledge is extendable on the basis of competent deduction from known premises. As long as one keeps the context fixed, it is plausible to think that some closure principle can be articulated that will survive scrutiny. Opponents of contextualism often try to gain an advantage over it by claiming that their view mimics these virtues of contextualism as well as having other virtues. A recent example of the same is termed ‘contrastivism," as presented by Jonathan Schaffer. I will argue that the representation made is chimerical, that in fact contrastivism has no hope of mirroring these twin virtues of contextualism.     

Conditionalization,Reflection, and Self-Knowledge

Van Fraassen famously endorses the Principle of Reflection as a constraint on rational credence, and argues that Reflection is entailed by the more traditional principle of Conditionalization. He draws two morals from this alleged entailment. First, that Reflection can be regarded as an alternative to Conditionalization – a more lenient standard of rationality. And second, that commitment to Conditionalization can be turned into support for Reflection. Van Fraassen also argues that Reflection implies Conditionalization, thus offering a new justification for Conditionalization. I argue that neither principle entails the other, and thus neither can be used to motivate the other in the way van Fraassen says. There are ways to connect Conditionalization to Reflection, but these connections depend on poor assumptions about our introspective access, and are not tight enough to draw the sorts of conclusions van Fraassen wants. Upon close examination, the two principles seem to be getting at two quite independent epistemic norms. My thanks to Frank Arntzenius, Barry Loewer, Chris Meacham, John Hawthorne, and an anonymous referee for their helpful discussion and criticism. Special thanks to Bliss Kern for bringing the topic to my attention.     

Social phobia in youth: the diagnostic utility of feared social situations

The present study evaluated the utility of parent- and child-reported social fears for reaching a diagnosis of social phobia in youth. The diagnostic utility of (a) the number of fears and (b) specific feared social situations was examined. The sample included 140 youth and their parents: youth diagnosed with social phobia (n=50), youth diagnosed with generalized anxiety disorder or separation anxiety disorder but not social phobia (n=49), and youth without an anxiety disorder (n=41). Youth and their parents were interviewed separately using the Anxiety Disorders Interview Schedule for Children and Parents. Analyses indicate that a cut score of 4 parent-endorsed social fears optimally distinguished youth with and without social phobia. Analyses of child-reported fears did not identify a meaningful cut score. Conditional probability and odds ratio analyses indicated that several specific social fears have high diagnostic efficiency, and others were found to have limited diagnostic efficiency. Results are discussed with regard to informing diagnostic interviews and diagnostic systems for social phobia in youth.