Ambiguity and rationality

Recently, several theories of decision making and probability judgment have been proposed that take into account ambiguity (Einhorn and Hogarth, 1985; Gardenfors and Sahlin, 1982). However, none of these theories explains exactly what the psychological causes of ambiguity are or addresses the issue of whether ambiguity effects are rational. In this paper, we define ambiguity as the subjective experience of missing information relevant to a prediction. We show how this definition can explain why ambiguity affects decisions in the ways it does. We argue that there are a variety of rational reasons ambiguity affects probability judgments and choices in the ways it does. However, we argue that the ambiguity effect does not cast doubt on the claim that utility theory is a standard of rational choice. Rather, we suggest that the effect of ambiguity on decisions highlights the fact that utility theory, like any normative model of decision making only prescribes the optimal decision, given what one knows.     

Recent developments in non-traditional employment testing: An introduction

The purpose of this special issue of theJournal of Business and Psychology is to provide a review and update of several key types of non-traditional employment tests. Non-traditional employment tests can be divided into two categories. One category consists ofbiological/physiological tests. The second category consists ofnarrow-based personality tests. A framework for thinking about non-traditional employment tests is provided.     

Logical pragmatism and dialectical materialism: The beginning of dialogue

A philosophical movement, correctly called logical pragmatism, is growing up around the philosophy of W. V. O. Quine, Soviet scholars follow this development with clear and well-grounded understanding of the origins and tenets of the system. This essay continues the dialogue between contemporary Marxism-Leninism and logical pragmatism recommended by Soviet scholars.A Russian translation of this article is being published inFilosofskie nauki (Moscow).     

Body image,dieting tendencies,and sex role traits in urban black women

The present study examined body image satisfaction, dieting tendencies, and sex role traits among a sample of black urban women. While women who felt “too fat” were more likely than other women to engage in both restrictive and nonrestrictive dieting tendencies, in general, the women's body weight and body image did not compel them to utilize extremely restrictive dieting practices. A sizable proportion of the sample reported body image dissatisfaction and weight concerns, yet this did not appear to exert an overwhelmingly negative influence over other aspects of their lives, such as participation in sports, exercise, and sexual activity. Body image satisfaction and sex role traits were related. Dieting tendencies were also related with body image satisfaction. These findings and implications for further research are discussed.     

A simulation-based tutorial system for exploring parallel distributed processing

This article presents a simulation-based tutorial system for exploring parallel distributed processing (PDP) models of information processing. The system consists of software and an accompanying handbook. The intent of the package is to make the ideas underlying PDP accessible and to disseminate some of the main simulation programs that we have developed. This article presents excerpts from the handbook that describe the approach taken, the organization of the handbook, and the software that comes with it. An example is given that illustrates the approach we have taken to teaching PDP, which involves presentation of relevant mathematical background, together with tutorial exercises that make use of the simulation programs.     

Cognitive Biases in Playing the Lottery: Estimating the Odds and Choosing the Numbers

Three experiments were conducted to examine the operation of the representativeness and anchoring and adjustment heuristics in lottery play. Subjects in Experiments 1 and 2 indicated their chances of winning a lottery with an objective probability of 1 in 10. Consistent with the anchoring and adjustment heuristic, subjects (in both experiments) perceived their chances of winning to be greater when the lottery was based on a single event than when it was based on a disjunctive event. Subjects in these two experiments also selected numbers to play in a pick-3 (Experiment 1) or pick-4 (Experiment 2) lottery. Consistent with the representativeness heuristic, subjects in Experiment 2 demonstrated a preference for numbers without repeating digits. This also occurred in Experiment 3 wherein the numbers actually played in the Indiana daily Pick-3 lottery were examined.     

Declines in Major League Batting Performance as a Function of Game Pressure: A Drive Theory Analysis1

Zajonc's (1965) drive theory explanation argues that greater arousal tends to impair performance on difficult tasks. The hypothesis that arousal generated by “pressure situations” during major league baseball games would hinder batting performance—a difficult task—was tested by examining such performance during the 1989 season. Six “pressure situations” were identified, some occurring during the late innings of close games and others occurring throughout the game when there were two outs. Two measures of batting performance (batting average and slugging average) were employed. Results indicated broad support for the hypothesis. Reasons for this pattern are discussed, as are possible alternative explanations for these findings.     

The representation and integration in memory of spatial and nonspatial information

A series of experiments investigated whether people could integrate nonspatial information about an object with their knowledge of the object's location in space. In Experiments 1 and 3, subjects learned the locations of cities on a fictitious road map; in Experiments 2, 4, and 5, subjects were already familiar with the locations of buildings on a campus. The subjects then learned facts about the cities on the maps or the buildings on the campus. The question of interest was whether or not these nonspatial facts would be integrated in memory with the spatial knowledge. After learning the facts, subjects were given a location-judgment test in which they had to decide whether an object was in one region of the space or another. Knowledge integration was assessed by comparing levels of performance in two conditions: (a) when a city or a building name was primed by a fact about a neighboring city or building, and (b) when a city or a building name was primed by a fact about a distant city or building. Results showed that responses in Condition a were faster or more accurate, or both faster and more accurate, than responses in Condition b. These results indicate that the spatial and nonspatial information were encoded in a common memory representation.