Ambiguity and rationality

Recently, several theories of decision making and probability judgment have been proposed that take into account ambiguity (Einhorn and Hogarth, 1985; Gardenfors and Sahlin, 1982). However, none of these theories explains exactly what the psychological causes of ambiguity are or addresses the issue of whether ambiguity effects are rational. In this paper, we define ambiguity as the subjective experience of missing information relevant to a prediction. We show how this definition can explain why ambiguity affects decisions in the ways it does. We argue that there are a variety of rational reasons ambiguity affects probability judgments and choices in the ways it does. However, we argue that the ambiguity effect does not cast doubt on the claim that utility theory is a standard of rational choice. Rather, we suggest that the effect of ambiguity on decisions highlights the fact that utility theory, like any normative model of decision making only prescribes the optimal decision, given what one knows.     

Declines in Major League Batting Performance as a Function of Game Pressure: A Drive Theory Analysis1

Zajonc's (1965) drive theory explanation argues that greater arousal tends to impair performance on difficult tasks. The hypothesis that arousal generated by “pressure situations” during major league baseball games would hinder batting performance—a difficult task—was tested by examining such performance during the 1989 season. Six “pressure situations” were identified, some occurring during the late innings of close games and others occurring throughout the game when there were two outs. Two measures of batting performance (batting average and slugging average) were employed. Results indicated broad support for the hypothesis. Reasons for this pattern are discussed, as are possible alternative explanations for these findings.     

Mothers with hostile, Type A predisposing child-rearing practices.

The authors examined characteristics of Finnish mothers (N = 924) who use hostile child-rearing practices (i.e., they ignore the child, are punitive and irritable, and perceive the child as a burden), practices that have been shown (R?ikk?nen & Keltikangas-J?rvinen, 1992) to predispose children to Type A behavior. The results of this study indicate that two factors--Type A behavior in the mothers and the mothers' sociodemographic background (low occupational status, low educational level and young age)--increase the probability of the mothers' treating their children in a hostile manner. Also, the mothers of boys in this study reported more hostile child-rearing practices than the mothers of girls did.     

Psychological compensation: a theoretical framework.

The 2 main objectives of this article are to review a variety of literatures in which the concept of compensation is used and to integrate the results of this review into a general framework of compensation. The review focuses on 4 domains of psychological inquiry: compensation for sensory handicaps, cognitive deficits, interpersonal losses, and brain injury. In the proposed framework, underlying dimensions and 4 basic steps in the progression of compensatory behavior are distinguished. The latter include origins, mechanisms, forms, and consequences. Finally, we describe ways in which researchers in particular domains can benefit from the global, process-oriented framework we propose. For most of the areas of compensation research reviewed, investigators can profit from a consideration of a broader selection of dimensions, additional steps in the process, alternative outcomes, and both objective and subjective assessment procedures.     

Predictors of short-term treatment outcome in bulimia nervosa inpatients.

Recent studies, mostly performed on bulimic outpatients, did not find consistent predictors of treatment outcome in bulimia nervosa. This is the first study to investigate anamnestic and clinical factors predictive of the short-term outcome of hospital treatment in 31 female bulimia nervosa patients with a mean age of 22.9 yr. Treatment outcome was assessed by several self-rating instruments measuring different features of the specific and unspecific psychopathology of bulimia nervosa. The most relevant predictors of the outcome of the 8-week hospital treatment were duration of previous inpatient treatments for bulimia, the intensity of anorexic tendency and the pretreatment level of depression. The majority of predictors tested did not show a strong relationship to treatment outcome. The findings are discussed in relation to results of other studies as well as to possible implications for treatment and research.     

Quantitative scores of normal and abnormal subjects on Initial-letter Word-association Test.

The quotient of the mean quantitative score on Initial-letter Word-association Test for 193 normal subjects was significantly higher than the quotient of the mean quantitative score of 44 abnormal (psychotic) subjects. This is interpreted as meaning that, in general, the normal subjects have predominantly a positive attitude towards their surrounding world in contradistinction to the abnormal subjects whose attitude was predominantly negative, ambivalent, and repressive. On the other hand, the mean of the quotients of the quantitative scores of the 44 abnormal subjects was higher than the mean of the quotients of the quantitative scores of the normal subjects which suggests increased oral tendencies of the abnormal subjects expressed much as the unwarranted optimism of small children.     

Slow alpha in the EEG power spectrum as an indicator for conceptual arousal]

Based on previous findings (B?sel et al., 1990) it was assumed that in concept learning tasks generating on hypotheses on a concept which has to be developed is accompanied by increases of the Alpha 1 power (7.5-10 Hz) in the spontaneous EEG activity. In this study 16 subjects performed five problem solving tasks with similar processing requirements. EEG data were analyzed by means of post hoc comparisons of subjects differing in performance quality. Additionally, four control tasks were employed in which, based on previous studies, variations in the Theta frequency range were expected. An effect in the Alpha 1 frequency band was observed in tasks requiring reconstructive recall or testing the usefulness of an mathematical algorithm. The creation of a rank order or mental map is accompanied by power increases in the lower portions of the Alpha 1 frequency band (7.5-8.5 Hz). Moreover a high amount of controlled variance (eta2 up to 34%) was obtained for this effect. Increases in EEG Theta power, which presumably indicate subjects' component analysis, were found before the subjects recognized parts of geometric figures or before relevant features in the "buddhist monk problem" were discriminated. The dynamics of EEG power over time is in examples of frequency/time plots in a figure, illustrated.     

EMG reactions of mimetic muscles after repeated presentation of pictures with positive, negative and neutral content]

Twenty male subjects (Ss) were repeatedly confronted for five seconds to pictures with positive, negative and neutral valence. During the picture presentation facial EMG-reactions of five mimic muscles (m. frontalis lateralis, m. corrugator supercilii, m. orbicularis oculi, m. zygomaticus major on the right and left side of the face) were recorded. In addition, heart rate was measured. It could be shown that during repeated presentation of pictures with positive valence the m. orbicularis oculi and the m. zygomaticus major on both sides of the face yielded enhanced average EMG-reactions as compared to the repeated presentation of pictures with negative and neutral valence. During presentation of pictures with negative valence the m. frontalis lateralis and the m. corrugator supercilii revealed enhanced EMG-reactions as compared to the repeated presentation of pictures with positive valence. Furthermore, it could be shown that during the repeated presentation of pictures with positive valence those facial muscles which mainly react during confrontation with pictures of positive valence showed a continuous decrease of EMG-activity. Facial muscles which mainly react during the presentation of pictures with negative valence do not show a continuous decrease in EMG-activity during the course of the repeated presentation of pictures with negative valence. Additionally, the EMG-activity of the m. zygomaticus major on the right and lift side of the face do not differ with respect to the mean activity and the time course during confrontation of pictures with positive valence. The m. orbicularis oculi yielded enhanced EMG-reactions during the presentation of pictures with positive valence as compared to both m. zygomaticus major muscles. The present results are discussed with respect to psychobiological theories concerning facial expression.     

Discrimination learning of rotated faces: a Markov analysis of coding and association processes]

30 subjects participated in a discrimination experiment learning face-letter associations under four rotation conditions (45 degrees, 90 degrees, 135 degrees, 180 degrees). Under each condition two thirds of the faces were presented twice, upright and rotated away from the vertical; the remaining faces were presented once, upright or rotated. Learning is described by a joint Markov model: For faces that are presented twice it assumes a separate association and encoding process (two-stage-model), for faces that are presented once it assumes an association process (all-or-none-model). The Markov model fits the data for all four rotation conditions. The angle of rotation does not affect learning for faces that are presented once. For faces that are presented twice it influences both the association and the encoding process. For the angles employed, the effect of rotation can be approximated linearly. The results suggest that the encoding of a rotated face differs increasingly from an upright face as a function of these angles of rotation. This confirms analogous conclusions from mental rotation experiments.     

The Chancellor's memory: Rhetoric and truth in discursive remembering

This paper explores the notion of truthfulness in research on conversational remembering. It argues that people's accounts of past events, before they can be taken as data on the cognitive workings of memory, need to be examined as contextualized and variable productions that perform pragmatic and rhetorical work; no one version can be taken as a person's real memory. The consequences of this discourse-analytical perspective are examined first through a critical discussion of Ulric Neisser's study of John Dean's testimony to the senate ‘Watergate’ committee. The issues are then explored more deeply in an analysis of reportings of a different event, in which similar (Watergate-like) issues of memory, truth and accuracy are also at issue. It is argued that: (a) all of Neisser's three kinds of memory–verbatim, gist and ‘repisodic’–involve problematical assumptions concerning their relation to some true, original event; and (b) that Dean's accounts of his memory and his displays of memory should be approached as occasioned productions oriented pragmatically to the assignment of guilt and avoidance of scapegoating. Through an analysis of newspaper reports (based on memory) of a controversial briefing given by the then British Chancellor of the Exchequer, Nigel Lawson, we then examine: (a) how discourse about what could be used as an arbiter of truth was rhetorically organized; (b) how participants' versions of events were constructed rhetorically, as parts of arguments; (c) that both sides in the dispute maintained the coherence of their positions by a form of error accounting similar to that used by Neisser with respect to Dean. It is suggested that cognitive psychologists, whether working in the laboratory or attempting to do real-world studies of everyday remembering, need to avoid simplistic notions of true original events, and can do so by addressing the rhetorical organization of participants' memory accounts.