Is the conjunction fallacy tied to probabilistic confirmation?

Crupi et al. (2008) offer a confirmation-theoretic, Bayesian account of the conjunction fallacy—an error in reasoning that occurs when subjects judge that Pr(h ₁ & h ₂|e) > Pr(h ₁|e). They introduce three formal conditions that are satisfied by classical conjunction fallacy cases, and they show that these same conditions imply that h ₁ & h ₂ is confirmed by e to a greater extent than is h ₁ alone. Consequently, they suggest that people are tracking this confirmation relation when they commit conjunction fallacies. I offer three experiments testing the merits of Crupi et al.’s account specifically and confirmation-theoretic accounts of the conjunction fallacy more generally. The results of Experiment 1 show that, although Crupi et al.’s conditions do seem to be causally linked to the conjunction fallacy, they are not necessary for it; there exist cases that do not meet their three conditions in which subjects still tend to commit the fallacy. The results of Experiments 2 and 3 show that Crupi et al.’s conditions, and those offered by other confirmation-theoretic accounts of the fallacy, are not sufficient for the fallacy either; there exist cases that meet all three of CFT’s conditions in which subjects do not tend to commit the fallacy. Additionally, these latter experiments show that such confirmation-theoretic conditions are at best only weakly causally relevant to the presence of the conjunction fallacy. Given these findings, CFT’s account specifically, and any general confirmation-theoretic account more broadly, falls short of offering a satisfying explanation of the presence of the conjunction fallacy.     

Word of mouth and interpersonal communication: A review and directions for future research

People often share opinions and information with their social ties, and word of mouth has an important impact on consumer behavior. But what drives interpersonal communication and why do people talk about certain things rather than others? This article argues that word of mouth is goal driven and serves five key functions (i.e., impression management, emotion regulation, information acquisition, social bonding, and persuasion). Importantly, I suggest these motivations are predominantly self- (rather than other) serving and drive what people talk about even without their awareness. Further, these drivers make predictions about the types of news and information people are most likely to discuss. This article reviews the five proposed functions and well as how contextual factors (i.e., audience and communication channel) may moderate which functions play a larger role. Taken together, the paper provides insight into the psychological factors that shape word of mouth and outlines additional questions that deserve further study.     

Beyond Viral: Interpersonal Communication in the Internet Age

Contemporary scholarship on mindfulness casts it as a form of purely nonevaluative engagement with experience. Yet, traditionally mindfulness was not intended to operate in a vacuum of dispassionate observation, but was seen as facilitative of eudaimonic mental states. In spite of this historical context, modern psychological research has neglected to ask the question of how the practice of mindfulness affects downstream emotion regulatory processes to impact the sense of meaning in life. To fill this lacuna, here we describe the mindfulness-to-meaning theory, from which we derive a novel process model of mindful positive emotion regulation informed by affective science, in which mindfulness is proposed to introduce flexibility in the generation of cognitive appraisals by enhancing interoceptive attention, thereby expanding the scope of cognition to facilitate reappraisal of adversity and savoring of positive experience. This process is proposed to culminate in a deepened capacity for meaning-making and greater engagement with life.     

Microblogging and the Value of Undirected Communication

Online social networks have become extremely popular, but what drives sharing through these channels? We demonstrate that one of the most popular features of online social networks, microblogging (e.g., tweeting or sharing Facebook status updates), is driven in part by its undirected nature. Microblogging allows people to simultaneously express themselves to a large number of potential communication partners without having to address anyone in particular. As a result, this communication channel is particularly valued when people feel socially apprehensive; it allows them to reach out without having to impose communication and potentially bother anyone in particular. These findings shed light on one reason why people use online social networks and provide insight into the value of undirected communication.     

Competing Explanations and Explaining-Away Arguments

An “explaining-away argument” [EAA] aims to discredit some explanatory hypothesis by appealing to the explanatory power of an alternative hypothesis. Nietzsche's genealogical argument against theism and Darwin's case against Paley's “old argument of design in nature” are famous examples. In order for EAAs to have their negative force, they must satisfy several conditions. After clarifying these conditions, I focus in on one in particular: the two hypotheses in question offer potential explanations that compete with one another. I develop a formal account of what it takes for potential explanations to compete, and I use this account to argue that EAAs are often misapplied today. This is due to the fact that philosophers often fail to appreciate the subtle line dividing competing from non-competing explanations.     

Exaggerated NMDA mediated LTD in a mouse model of Down syndrome and pharmacological rescuing by memantine

The Ts65Dn mouse is the best-studied animal model for Down syndrome. In the experiments described here, NMDA-mediated or mGluR-mediated LTD was induced in the CA1 region of hippocampal slices from Ts65Dn and euploid control mice by bath application of 20 μM NMDA for 3 min and 50 μM DHPG for 5 min, respectively. We found that Ts65Dn mice display exaggerated NMDA-induced, but not mGluR-induced, LTD in the CA1 region of the hippocampus compared with euploid control animals. In addition, this abnormal level of LTD can be pharmacologically rescued by the NMDA receptor antagonist memantine.     

Candidate progression in analytic institutes: A multi-center study

This study documents the criteria for graduation and for awarding credit for training cases used by thirteen institutes of the American Psychoanalytic Association (APsA). At the time of this study, these thirteen institutes were training 63% of all candidates enrolled at institutes of the APsA. Questionnaires were sent to the progression committee chairperson (PCC), a junior candidate and a senior candidate, and a recent graduate at each institute. Each participant also had a follow-up semi-structured telephone interview. Return rate was 100%. 92% per cent of the institutes reported that in order to receive credit for cases, the patient needed to be in treatment for some minimum amount of time (average 18.3 months). Many PCCs were skeptical about writing down the criteria for credit, stating that this made candidates overly focused on the time requirement. 85% per cent of PCCs felt that graduation from the institute was based primarily on obtaining credit for cases. Few required a terminated case and only one felt that classroom work was an important factor. 47% per cent of candidates felt that the need to keep patients in treatment to receive credit for cases affected their treatment of patients and only 46% of candidates could state the minimum time requirement used by their institute. These results indicate that graduation from institutes of the APsA depends primarily on receiving credit for cases, that case length is an important criterion for awarding credit and that this method of evaluating candidates may not be the best way to support educational objectives.     

More than Data Collectors: A Systematic Review of the Environmental Outcomes of Youth Inquiry Approaches in the United States

Over the last twenty years, research on the impact of engaging children and adolescents in the generation of new knowledge about their lives, schools, and communities, has grown tremendously. This systematic review summarizes the findings from empirical studies of youth inquiry approaches in the United States, with a focus on their environmental outcomes. Searches of four interdisciplinary databases retrieved a total of 3,724 relevant articles published between 1995 and 2015. Sixty‐three distinct studies met the systematic review inclusion criteria, of which, 36 (57.1%) reported that the youth inquiry approach contributed to positive changes among adults, peers, organizations, and/or institutions. These environmental outcomes were qualitatively recorded, inductively categorized, and then organized into Bronfenbrenner's ecological framework. Youth inquiry approaches led to practitioner growth and changes in peer group norms at the micro‐system level, program development or improvement and research benefits at the meso‐system level, and school, city, and state level policy adoption at the exo‐system level. Qualitative methods, especially case studies, were most commonly used to evaluate the impact of youth inquiry approaches on environmental outcomes. Studies of approaches that utilized advocacy to create change, targeted decision‐makers as the audience for the youth's work and convened for a longer duration were more likely to report improved environmental outcomes. This systematic review suggests that youth inquiry approaches are a promising strategy for ecological systems change.