Do Bettors Correctly Perceive Odds? Three Studies of How Bettors Interpret Betting Odds as Probabilistic Information

This paper reports on three studies investigating how accurately bettors (=people who regularly bet on sports events) interpret the probabilistic information implied by betting odds. All studies were based on data collected by web surveys prompting a total of 186 experienced bettors to convert sets of representative odds into frequency judgments. Bayesian statistical methods were used to analyze the data. From the results, the following conclusions were made: (i) On the whole, the bettors produced well‐calibrated judgments, indicating that they have realistic perceptions of odds. (ii) Bettors were unable to consciously adjust judgments for different margins. (iii) Although their interval judgments often covered the estimates implied by the odds, the bettors tended to overestimate the variation of expected profitable bets between months. The results are consistent with prior research showing that people tend to make accurate probability judgments when faced with tasks characterized by constant and clear feedback. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Formulating deflationism

I here argue for a particular formulation of truth-deflationism, namely, the propositionally quantified formula, (Q) “For all p, ${\langle \text{p}\rangle}$ is true iff p”. The main argument consists of an enumeration of the other (five) possible formulations and criticisms thereof. Notably, Horwich’s Minimal Theory is found objectionable in that it cannot be accepted by finite beings. Other formulations err in not providing non-questionbegging, sufficiently direct derivations of the T-schema instances. I end by defending (Q) against various objections. In particular, I argue that certain circularity charges rest on mistaken assumptions about logic that lead to Carroll’s regress. I show how the propositional quantifier can be seen as on a par with first-order quantifiers and so equally acceptable to use. While the proposed parallelism between these quantifiers is controversial in general, deflationists have special reasons to affirm it. I further argue that the main three types of approach the truth-paradoxes are open to an adherent of (Q), and that the derivation of general facts about truth can be explained on its basis.     

Associations between symptoms of maternal postpartum depression,gestational age and infant social withdrawal: A longitudinal study in a community cohort

Infant social withdrawal is a risk factor for non-optimal child development; thus, it is important to identify risk factors associated with withdrawal. In a large community sample (N = 19,017), we investigate whether symptoms of maternal and partner postpartum depression (PPD; measured with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale) and prematurity are predictors of infant social withdrawal (measured with the Alarm Distress Baby Scale). Withdrawal was assessed at 2–3, 4–7 and 8–12 months postpartum. Linear regressions showed that prematurity predicted higher infant social withdrawal at all time points, and maternal symptoms of PPD were positively associated with withdrawal at 2–3 months. Logistic regressions showed that odds for elevated social withdrawal were increased with elevated levels of maternal symptoms of PPD at 2–3 and 8–12 months. Partner's symptoms of PPD were not associated with withdrawal. Future studies should investigate how PPD symptoms and prematurity may impact the individual development of social withdrawal.     

The day of the week when you were born in 700 ms: calendar computation in an Autistic savant

Some individuals are able to determine the weekday of a given date in a few seconds (finding for instance that June 12, 1900, was a Tuesday). This ability has fascinated scientists for many years because it is predominantly observed in people with limited intelligence and may appear very early in life. Exceptional visual memory, exceptional concentration abilities, or privileged access to lower levels of information not normally available through introspection have been advanced to explain such phenomena. In the present article, the authors show that a simple cognitive model can explain all aspects of the performance of Donny, a young autistic savant who is possibly the fastest and most accurate calendar prodigy ever described.