How do investors make predictions? Insights from analogical reasoning research

Previous work on investor decision making has focused almost exclusively on information specific to the company being judged. Consequently, every decision is viewed as a novel event, disconnected from the investor's existing knowledge. In this study, the analogical reasoning literature provides the theoretical support for arguing that investors frequently utilize existing knowledge as a basis for generating predictions about a company's future. The specific proposal is that investors transfer their existing knowledge via two different forms of analogical reasoning. The first, relational reasoning, is based primarily on structural correspondence between a novel company and an existing schema. The second, literal similarity reasoning, is based primarily on surface correspondence of a novel company and a previously encountered company. Our theoretical framework is tested in a study in which experienced investors predict the outcome of a novel company's strategy after reading about the experiences of other companies who implemented a similar strategy. The results are consistent with the occurrence of both relational and literal similarity reasoning, with relational reasoning emerging as the dominant approach to generating investors' predictions. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

In the name of democracy: The value of democracy explains leniency towards wrongdoings as a function of group political organization

According to the “democracy‐as‐value” hypothesis, democracy has become an ideological belief system providing social value to democratic individuals, groups and institutions, granting legitimacy to their actions (even if dishonest or violent), and protecting them from consecutive punishments. The present research investigates the extent to which this legitimizing process is based on the individual endorsement of democratic principles. Across four experiments, following the misdeed of a (few) group member(s), respondents who valued democratic group organization and democracy in general expressed more lenient retributive justice judgments towards democratic (as compared with nondemocratic) offender groups. These findings shed light on the ways in which democratic ideology infuses justice judgments. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The mixed blessings of migration: Life satisfaction and self‐esteem over the course of migration

We investigated the psychological adaptation of Ingrian–Finnish migrants from Russia to Finland between 2008 and 2013. Pre‐migration data (N = 225) were collected at the Finnish language courses that were part of the immigration training program. The three post‐migration follow‐ups were conducted half a year (N = 155), and 2 (N = 133) and 3 years (N = 85) after migration. Well‐being was assessed with measures of Life Satisfaction and Self‐Esteem. Life Satisfaction increased from pre‐migration to the first post‐migration measurement point, after which it stabilized. Self‐Esteem decreased throughout the study. Variables reflecting adjustment to the event of migration (e.g., acculturation stress, socio‐cultural adaptation) were primarily associated with well‐being at the first post‐migration measurement point. More general determinants of well‐being (e.g., social support and subjective economic situation) were more consistently associated with well‐being throughout the study. The results suggest that migration can be beneficial to some but detrimental to other types of well‐being.     

Exposure,Agency, Perceived Threat,and Guilt as Predictors of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Veterans

Using a sample of 289 Iraq/Afghanistan veterans, this study examined the contributions of combat exposure, agency, perceived threat, and guilt to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. Regression analyses indicated the four variables (together with demographic variables) accounted for 79% of the variance in PTSD symptoms. Guilt was the most important predictor. In addition, guilt mediated between exposure and PTSD symptoms, perceived threat and PTSD symptoms, and agency and PTSD symptoms. Implications of these findings are discussed.     

Causal Networks or Causal Islands? The Representation of Mechanisms and the Transitivity of Causal Judgment

Knowledge of mechanisms is critical for causal reasoning. We contrasted two possible organizations of causal knowledge—an interconnected causal network, where events are causally connected without any boundaries delineating discrete mechanisms; or a set of disparate mechanisms—causal islands—such that events in different mechanisms are not thought to be related even when they belong to the same causal chain. To distinguish these possibilities, we tested whether people make transitive judgments about causal chains by inferring, given A causes B and B causes C, that A causes C. Specifically, causal chains schematized as one chunk or mechanism in semantic memory (e.g., exercising, becoming thirsty, drinking water) led to transitive causal judgments. On the other hand, chains schematized as multiple chunks (e.g., having sex, becoming pregnant, becoming nauseous) led to intransitive judgments despite strong intermediate links ((Experiments 1–3). Normative accounts of causal intransitivity could not explain these intransitive judgments (Experiments 4 and 5).     

Gender Role Attitudes across the Transition to Adolescent Motherhood in Mexican‐Origin Families

Using longitudinal data collected at four time points from 191 dyads of Mexican‐origin adolescent first‐time mothers and their mother figures, we examined changes in and socialization of traditional gender role attitudes across the transition to parenthood using latent growth curve modeling and actor – partner interdependence modeling. Longitudinal growth models indicated that, regardless of nativity status, adolescent mothers' and their foreign‐born mother figures' gender role attitudes became more egalitarian across adolescents' transition to parenthood, spanning from the 3rd trimester of pregnancy to 36 months postpartum. Furthermore, actor‐partner interdependence modeling suggested that adolescents' and their mother figures' gender role attitudes during adolescents' third trimester of pregnancy equally contributed to subsequent increases in one another's gender role attitudes at 10 months postpartum. Importantly, this reciprocal socialization process was not moderated by adolescent mothers' nor by their mother figures' nativity status. Findings suggest that it is important to understand the cultural and intergenerational family processes that contribute to the development of gender role attitudes during the transition to parenthood for adolescent mothers and their mother figures in Mexican‐origin families.     

National identification and attitudes towards Russian immigrants in Finland: Investigating the role of perceived threats and gains

In this cross‐sectional study, we examined the relationship between national identification of majority Finns (nation‐wide probability sample, N = 335) and their attitudes towards Russian immigrants living in Finland. As previous research indicates both possibilities, we tested whether this relationship was moderated or mediated by threats and gains perceived to result from immigration. The results supported the mediation hypothesis; those individuals who identified stronger with their national ingroup perceived more threats than gains related to increased immigration and these perceptions, in turn, were associated with more negative attitudes towards immigrants. The role of realistic as opposed to symbolic threats and gains was particularly pronounced. The implications of the results are discussed in terms of their theoretical relevance and practical means to improve intergroup relations, with a particular focus on the relations between Finns and Russian immigrants in Finland.     

Strategic Revenue Management under Uncertainty: A Case Study on Real Estate Projects in India

This paper proposes an approach for strategic revenue management under uncertainty for real estate projects. It integrates three modelling techniques: first, artificial neural network integrated support vector machines for forecasting the profit and loss‐making real estate residential projects; second, analytical network process approach using decision making trials and evaluation laboratory methodology for establishing interrelationships among factors; and third, multiobjective genetic algorithm approach for obtaining optimal numbers and types of apartments in a real estate project. We compare the respective revenues generated with the new number of apartments and price from the suggested revenue maximization model and that of the old practiced one through a case study of India. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.