Reasoning defeasibly about probabilities

In concrete applications of probability, statistical investigation gives us knowledge of some probabilities, but we generally want to know many others that are not directly revealed by our data. For instance, we may know prob(P/Q) (the probability of P given Q) and prob(P/R), but what we really want is prob(P/Q&;R), and we may not have the data required to assess that directly. The probability calculus is of no help here. Given prob(P/Q) and prob(P/R), it is consistent with the probability calculus for prob(P/Q&;R) to have any value between 0 and 1. Is there any way to make a reasonable estimate of the value of prob(P/Q&;R)? A related problem occurs when probability practitioners adopt undefended assumptions of statistical independence simply on the basis of not seeing any connection between two propositions. This is common practice, but its justification has eluded probability theorists, and researchers are typically apologetic about making such assumptions. Is there any way to defend the practice? This paper shows that on a certain conception of probability—nomic probability—there are principles of “probable probabilities” that license inferences of the above sort. These are principles telling us that although certain inferences from probabilities to probabilities are not deductively valid, nevertheless the second-order probability of their yielding correct results is 1. This makes it defeasibly reasonable to make the inferences. Thus I argue that it is defeasibly reasonable to assume statistical independence when we have no information to the contrary. And I show that there is a function Y(r, s, a) such that if prob(P/Q) = r, prob(P/R) = s, and prob(P/U) = a (where U is our background knowledge) then it is defeasibly reasonable to expect that prob(P/Q&;R) = Y(r, s, a). Numerous other defeasible inferences are licensed by similar principles of probable probabilities. This has the potential to greatly enhance the usefulness of probabilities in practical application.     

Integrating advice and experience: learning and decision making with social and nonsocial cues

When making decisions, people typically gather information from both social and nonsocial sources, such as advice from others and direct experience. This research adapted a cognitive learning paradigm to examine the process by which people learn what sources of information are credible. When participants relied on advice alone to make decisions, their learning of source reliability proceeded in a manner analogous to traditional cue learning processes and replicated the established learning phenomena. However, when advice and nonsocial cues were encountered together as an established phenomenon, blocking (ignoring redundant information) did not occur. Our results suggest that extant cognitive learning models can accommodate either advice or nonsocial cues in isolation. However, the combination of advice and nonsocial cues (a context more typically encountered in daily life) leads to different patterns of learning, in which mutually supportive information from different types of sources is not regarded as redundant and may be particularly compelling. For these situations, cognitive learning models still constitute a promising explanatory tool but one that must be expanded. As such, these findings have important implications for social psychological theory and for cognitive models of learning.     

System justification and the defense of committed relationship ideology

A consequential ideology in Western society is the uncontested belief that a committed relationship is the most important adult relationship and that almost all people want to marry or seriously couple (DePaulo & Morris, 2005). In the present article, we investigated the extent to which the system justification motive may contribute to the adoption of this ideology. In Studies 1 and 2, we examined whether a heightened motive to maintain the status quo would increase defense of committed relationship values. In Study 3, we examined the reverse association, that is, whether a threat to committed relationship ideology would also affect sociopolitical system endorsement. As past research has found that the justification of political systems depends upon how much these systems are perceived as controlling, in Study 4 we tested whether the defense of the system of committed relationships would also increase when framed as controlling. Results from Studies 1-4 were consistent with our hypotheses, but only for men. In Study 5, using cross-cultural data, we sought to replicate these findings correlationally and probe for a cause of the gender effect. Results from more than 33,000 respondents indicated a relationship (for men) between defense of the sociopolitical system and defense of marriage in countries where the traditional advantages of men over women were most threatened. In Studies 6 and 7, we investigated when this gender difference disappears. Results revealed that when we measured (Study 6) or manipulated (Study 7) personal relationship identity rather than relationship ideology, effects also emerge for women.     

Role of serial order in the impact of talker variability on short-term memory: testing a perceptual organization-based account

In two experiments, we examined the impact of the degree of match between sequential auditory perceptual organization processes and the demands of a short-term memory task (memory for order vs. item information). When a spoken sequence of digits was presented so as to promote its perceptual partitioning into two distinct streams by conveying it in alternating female (F) and male (M) voices (FMFMFMFM)—thereby disturbing the perception of true temporal order—recall of item order was greatly impaired (as compared to recall of item identity). Moreover, an order error type consistent with the formation of voice-based streams was committed more quickly in the alternating-voice condition (Exp. 1). In contrast, when the perceptual organization of the sequence mapped well onto an optimal two-group serial rehearsal strategy—by presenting the two voices in discrete clusters (FFFFMMMM)—order, but not item, recall was enhanced (Exp. 2). The results are consistent with the view that the degree of compatibility between perceptual and deliberate sequencing processes is a key determinant of serial short-term memory performance. Alternative accounts of talker variability effects in short-term memory, based on the concept of a dedicated phonological short-term store and a capacity-limited focus of attention, are also reviewed.     

Modulation of N400 in chronic non-fluent aphasia using low frequency Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (rTMS)

Low frequency Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (rTMS) has previously been applied to language homologues in non-fluent populations of persons with aphasia yielding significant improvements in behavioral language function up to 43 months post stimulation. The present study aimed to investigate the electrophysiological correlates associated with the application of rTMS through measurement of the semantic based N400 Event-related brain potentials (ERP) component. Low frequency (1 Hz) rTMS was applied to the anterior portion of the homologue to Broca’s area (pars triangularis), for 20 min per day for 10 days, using a stereotactic neuronavigational system. Twelve non-fluent persons with aphasia, 2-6 years post stroke were stimulated. Six participants were randomly assigned to receive real stimulation and six participants were randomly assigned to receive a blind sham control condition. ERP measures were recorded at baseline, 1 week and 2 months subsequent to stimulation. The findings demonstrate treatment related changes observed in the stimulation group when compared to the placebo control group at 2 months post stimulation indicating neuromodulation of N400 as a result of rTMS. No treatment related changes were identified in the stimulation group, when compared to the sham group from baseline to 1 week post stimulation. The electrophysiological results represent the capacity of rTMS to modulate neural language networks and measures of lexical-semantic function in participants with non-fluent aphasia and suggest that time may be an important factor in brain reorganization subsequent to rTMS.     

Parental Marital Discord and Treatment Response in Depressed Adolescents

Evidence suggests that parental marital discord contributes to the development of internalizing and externalizing symptoms in children and adolescents. Few studies, however, have examined the association between parental marital discord and youth’s response to treatment. The present study examined the impact of interparental discord on treatment response in a randomized control trial of adolescents with major depression enrolled in the Treatment for Adolescents with Depression Study (TADS). Participants were 260 adolescents from two-parent households randomly assigned to one of four treatment groups: fluoxetine (FLX), cognitive behavior therapy (CBT), their combination (COMB), or placebo (PBO). Logistic regressions revealed that parental marital discord interacted with youth gender and co-morbid oppositionality symptoms to predict group differences in treatment response.     

Maternal Depressive Symptoms and Child Social Preference During the Early School Years: Mediation by Maternal Warmth and Child Emotion Regulation

This longitudinal study examined processes that mediate the association between maternal depressive symptoms and peer social preference during the early school years. Three hundred and fifty six kindergarten children (182 boys) and their mothers participated in the study. During kindergarten, mothers reported their level of depressive symptomatology. In first grade, teachers rated children’s emotion regulation at school and observers rated the affective quality of mother-child interactions. During second grade, children’s social preference was assessed by peer nomination. Results indicated that mothers’ level of depressive symptomatology negatively predicted their child’s social preference 2 years later, controlling for the family SES and teacher-rated social preference during kindergarten. Among European American families, the association between maternal depressive symptoms and social preference was partially mediated by maternal warmth and the child’s emotion regulation. Although the relation between maternal depressive symptoms and children peer preference was stronger among African American families than Europrean American families, its mediation by the maternal warmth and child’s emotion regulation was not found in African American families.     

Portrayal of personality in Victorian novels reflects modern research findings but amplifies the significance of agreeableness

All literature embodies an implicit theory of personality and human nature (Hogan, 1976). The research described here investigates the implicit personality theory embedded in the behavior of 435 characters in 143 canonical Victorian novels. Characters were rated on the Web by 519 scholars and students of 19th-century British literature. Ratings included the characters’ goals, success in achieving goals, mate preferences and strategies, and personality according to the Five Factor Model. Results suggest that novels by Victorian authors largely reflect personality and human nature as understood by modern personality psychology, but Victorian authors amplify the significance of agreeableness and thus, whether intentionally or not, encourage cooperative impulses in readers.