Did Pearson reject the Neyman-Pearson philosophy of statistics?

I document some of the main evidence showing that E. S. Pearson rejected the key features of the behavioral-decision philosophy that became associated with the Neyman-Pearson Theory of statistics (NPT). I argue that NPT principles arose not out of behavioral aims, where the concern is solely with behaving correctly sufficiently often in some long run, but out of the epistemological aim of learning about causes of experimental results (e.g., distinguishing genuine from spurious effects). The view Pearson did hold gives a deeper understanding of NPT tests than their typical formulation as accept-reject routines, against which criticisms of NPT are really directed. The Pearsonian view that emerges suggests how NPT tests may avoid these criticisms while still retaining what is central to these methods: the control of error probabilities.A portion of this research was carried out during tenure of a National Endowment for the Humanities Summer Stipend Fellowship; I gratefully acknowledge that support. A version of this paper was presented at the 1987 meeting of the Society for Exact Philosophy. This paper benefited from discussions and communications with George Barnard and Isaac Levi. I thank Harlan Miller for helpful comments on earlier drafts.     

Revision algebra semantics for conditional logic

The properties of belief revision operators are known to have an informal semantics which relates them to the axioms of conditional logic. The purpose of this paper is to make this connection precise via the model theory of conditional logic. A semantics for conditional logic is presented, which is expressed in terms of algebraic models constructed ultimately out of revision operators. In addition, it is shown that each algebraic model determines both a revision operator and a logic, that are related by virtue of the stable Ramsey test.The author is grateful for a correction and several other valuable suggestions of two anonymous referees. This work was supported by the McDonnell Douglas Independent Research and Development program.     

Partial monotonicity and a new version of the Ramsey test

We introduce two new belief revision axioms: partial monotonicity and consequence correctness. We show that partial monotonicity is consistent with but independent of the full set of axioms for a Gärdenfors belief revision sytem. In contrast to the Gärdenfors inconsistency results for certain monotonicity principles, we use partial monotonicity to inform a consistent formalization of the Ramsey test within a belief revision system extended by a conditional operator. We take this to be a technical dissolution of the well-known Gärdenfors dilemma.In addition, we present the consequential correctness axiom as a new measure of minimal revision in terms of the deductive core of a proposition whose support we wish to excise. We survey several syntactic and semantic belief revision systems and evaluate them according to both the Gärdenfors axioms and our new axioms. Furthermore, our algebraic characterization of semantic revision systems provides a useful technical device for analysis and comparison, which we illustrate with several new proofs.Finally, we have a new inconsistency result, which is dual to the Gärdenfors inconsistency results. Any elementary belief revision system that is consequentially correct must violate the Gärdenfors axiom of strong boundedness (K^*8), which we characterize as yet another monotonicity condition.This work was supported by the McDonnell Douglas Independent Research and Development program.     

An automated test development of parallel tests from a seed test

Binary programming models are presented to generate parallel tests from an itembank. The parallel tests are created to match item for item an existing seed test and match user supplied taxonomic specifications. The taxonomic specifications may be either obtained from the seed test or from some other user requirement. An algorithm is presented along with computational results to indicate the overall efficiency of the process. Empirical findings based on an itembank for the Arithmetic Reasoning section of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery are given.The Office of Naval Research, Program in Cognitive Science, N00014-87-C-0696 partially supported the work of Douglas H. Jones. The Rutgers Research Resource Committee of the Graduate School of Management partially supported the work of Douglas H. Jones and Ing-Long Wu. A Thomas and Betts research fellowship partially supported the work of Ing-Long Wu. The Human Resources Laboratory, United States Air Force, partially supported the work of Ronald Armstrong. The authors benefited from conversations with Dr. Wayne Shore, Operational Technologies, San Antonio, Texas. The order of authors' names is alphabetical and denotes equal authorship.     

Slow alpha in the EEG power spectrum as an indicator for conceptual arousal]

Based on previous findings (B?sel et al., 1990) it was assumed that in concept learning tasks generating on hypotheses on a concept which has to be developed is accompanied by increases of the Alpha 1 power (7.5-10 Hz) in the spontaneous EEG activity. In this study 16 subjects performed five problem solving tasks with similar processing requirements. EEG data were analyzed by means of post hoc comparisons of subjects differing in performance quality. Additionally, four control tasks were employed in which, based on previous studies, variations in the Theta frequency range were expected. An effect in the Alpha 1 frequency band was observed in tasks requiring reconstructive recall or testing the usefulness of an mathematical algorithm. The creation of a rank order or mental map is accompanied by power increases in the lower portions of the Alpha 1 frequency band (7.5-8.5 Hz). Moreover a high amount of controlled variance (eta2 up to 34%) was obtained for this effect. Increases in EEG Theta power, which presumably indicate subjects' component analysis, were found before the subjects recognized parts of geometric figures or before relevant features in the "buddhist monk problem" were discriminated. The dynamics of EEG power over time is in examples of frequency/time plots in a figure, illustrated.     

EMG reactions of mimetic muscles after repeated presentation of pictures with positive, negative and neutral content]

Twenty male subjects (Ss) were repeatedly confronted for five seconds to pictures with positive, negative and neutral valence. During the picture presentation facial EMG-reactions of five mimic muscles (m. frontalis lateralis, m. corrugator supercilii, m. orbicularis oculi, m. zygomaticus major on the right and left side of the face) were recorded. In addition, heart rate was measured. It could be shown that during repeated presentation of pictures with positive valence the m. orbicularis oculi and the m. zygomaticus major on both sides of the face yielded enhanced average EMG-reactions as compared to the repeated presentation of pictures with negative and neutral valence. During presentation of pictures with negative valence the m. frontalis lateralis and the m. corrugator supercilii revealed enhanced EMG-reactions as compared to the repeated presentation of pictures with positive valence. Furthermore, it could be shown that during the repeated presentation of pictures with positive valence those facial muscles which mainly react during confrontation with pictures of positive valence showed a continuous decrease of EMG-activity. Facial muscles which mainly react during the presentation of pictures with negative valence do not show a continuous decrease in EMG-activity during the course of the repeated presentation of pictures with negative valence. Additionally, the EMG-activity of the m. zygomaticus major on the right and lift side of the face do not differ with respect to the mean activity and the time course during confrontation of pictures with positive valence. The m. orbicularis oculi yielded enhanced EMG-reactions during the presentation of pictures with positive valence as compared to both m. zygomaticus major muscles. The present results are discussed with respect to psychobiological theories concerning facial expression.     

The correlation between coping with stress and blood pressure reaction]

This study explored the relationship between individual strategies of coping and blood pressure responses during and after mental stress. Blood pressure behavior was measured noninvasively and continuously before, during and after a mental stress situation in 27 normotensive subjects. Coping strategies were assessed with the Stressverarbeitungsfragebogen (SVF; coping with stress inventory). Two extreme groups were formed on the basis of the scores in the SVF. Results were: (a) Individuals who used coping strategies characterized by controlling the situation directly and constructively, in contrast to probands not using these strategies, exhibited lower blood pressure during the stress situation and a faster return to baseline levels after cessation of stress. (b) Subjects using a coping behavior characterized by the use of defense mechanisms such as suppression and denial, also showed lower blood pressure during stress but a significantly delayed return to baseline levels of blood pressure after stress was concluded.     

Discrimination learning of rotated faces: a Markov analysis of coding and association processes]

30 subjects participated in a discrimination experiment learning face-letter associations under four rotation conditions (45 degrees, 90 degrees, 135 degrees, 180 degrees). Under each condition two thirds of the faces were presented twice, upright and rotated away from the vertical; the remaining faces were presented once, upright or rotated. Learning is described by a joint Markov model: For faces that are presented twice it assumes a separate association and encoding process (two-stage-model), for faces that are presented once it assumes an association process (all-or-none-model). The Markov model fits the data for all four rotation conditions. The angle of rotation does not affect learning for faces that are presented once. For faces that are presented twice it influences both the association and the encoding process. For the angles employed, the effect of rotation can be approximated linearly. The results suggest that the encoding of a rotated face differs increasingly from an upright face as a function of these angles of rotation. This confirms analogous conclusions from mental rotation experiments.