A high-speed algorithm for computing conditional probabilities of substrings of sequentially observed data

An algorithm is described that computes relative frequencies of occurrence of all arbitrarily long substrings of sequential data, such as are obtained from experiments in learning/memory and verbal interaction. The algorithm offers high speed and provides systematization for the computation of empirical conditional probabilities. Use of this algorithm allows application of probabilistic and information theoretic disciplines to reveal dependencies between events separated arbitrarily in time.     

Kant’s Solution to the Euthyphro Dilemma

Are our actions morally good because we approve of them or are they good independently of our approval? Are we projecting moral values onto the world or do we detect values that are already there? For many these questions don’t state a real alternative but a secular variant of the Euthyphro dilemma: If our actions are good because we approve of them moral goodness appears to be arbitrary. If they are good independently of our approval, it is unclear how we come to know their moral quality and how moral knowledge can be motivating. None of these options seems attractive; the source of moral goodness unclear. Despite the growing literature on Kant’s moral epistemology and moral epistemology the question remains open what Kant’s answer to this apparent dilemma is. The Kantian view I attempt to lay out in this paper is supposed to dissolve the secular version of the Euthyphro dilemma. In responding to this dilemma we need to get clear about the source or the origin of our moral knowledge: Voluntary approval or mind-independent moral facts? Projectivism or detectivism? Construction or given? I believe that all these ways of articulating the problem turn out, on closer inspection, to be false alternatives.     

The effects of action,normality, and decision carefulness on anticipated regret: Evidence for a broad mediating role of decision justifiability

Two distinct theoretical views explain the effects of action/inaction and social normality on anticipated regret. Norm theory (Kahneman & Miller, 1986) emphasises the role of decision mutability, the ease with which one can imagine having made a different choice. Decision justification theory (Connolly & Zeelenberg, 2002) highlights the role of decision justifiability, the perception that the choice was made on a defensible basis, supported by convincing arguments or using a thoughtful, comprehensive decision process. The present paper tests several contrasting predictions from the two theoretical approaches in a series of four studies. Study 1 replicated earlier findings showing greater anticipated regret when the chosen option was abnormal than when it was normal, and perceived justifiability mediated the effect. Study 2 showed that anticipated regret was higher for careless than for careful decisions. Study 3 replicated this finding for a sample holding a different social norm towards the focal decision. Finally, Study 4 found that, when decision carefulness, normality and action/inaction were all specified, only the former showed a significant effect on anticipated regret, and the effect was again mediated by perceived justifiability. Decision justification theory thus appears to provide a better account of anticipated regret intensity in this context than does norm theory.     

Withdrawing attention at little or no cost: Detection and discrimination tasks

We used a concurrent-task paradigm to investigate the attentional cost of simple visual tasks. As in earlier studies, we found that detecting a unique orientation in an array of oriented elements (“pop-out”) carries little or no attentional cost. Surprisingly, this is true at all levels of performance and holds even when pop-out is barely discriminable. We discuss this finding in the context of our previous report that the attentional cost of stimulus detection is strongly influenced by the presence and nature of other stimuli in the display (Braun, 1994b). For discrimination tasks, we obtained a similarly mixed outcome: Discrimination of letter shape carried a high attentional cost whereas discrimination of color and orientation did not. Taken together, these findings lead us to modify our earlier position on the attentional costs of detection and discrimination tasks (Sagi & Julesz, 1985). We now believe that observers enjoy a significant degree of “ambient” visual awareness outside the focus of attention, permitting them to both detect and discriminate certain visual information. We hypothesize that the information in question is selected by a competition for saliency at the level of early vision.     

How Indirect Questioning Techniques May Promote Democracy: A Preelection Polling Experiment

Socially desirable responding may cause differences between preelection polls and election outcomes. Bias-free preelection polls are, however, important because they influence election outcomes. Benefiting from a unique opportunity, we experimentally controlled social desirability using the Crosswise Model in a poll prior to the German federal election in 2013. We found that due to strategic voting, outcome expectations were related to voting intentions; the election outcome was therefore likely distorted by social desirability bias in preelection polls. We recommend using indirect questioning techniques whenever a vote for at least one of the competing parties may be perceived as socially undesirable.     

Einzel- und Paarintervention f��r depressive Koronarpatienten

Depressive symptoms in patients presenting with coronary heart disease have an impact on quality of life, health behavior, and prognosis. The psychotherapeutic interventions which had been tested for their efficacy in previous randomized controlled trials, showed only minor effects. A stepwise approach consisting of individual and group psychotherapeutic interventions was tested for efficacy in a German multicenter study. The presented paper describes the therapeutic procedure for two individual sessions and one couple session by means of case examples. The main focus was to determine depressive symptoms along with underlying maladaptive personality traits such as negative affectivity and social inhibition (type D pattern). Depressive mood, disappointments and mortifications both in private and professional life and also during the previous treatment are verbalized. Dysfunctional relation patterns and maladaptive sickness behavior are taken up by the psychotherapist and alternative behavior patterns are developed. The objective of the couple session is strengthening the partnership resources and offering relief of fears and worries relative to the heart disease. The psychotherapeutic procedure is psychodynamically oriented but also contains cognitive-behavioral and interactional treatment approaches.     

Target-flanker discriminability affects conflict size but not sustained suppression

On successive trials, repetitions of irrelevant information often tend to reduce congruency effects as compared to alternations of irrelevant information. The preferred explanation for this congruency modulation is the sustained-suppression hypothesis, suggesting that suppression of the irrelevant information on a given trial perseveres into the subsequent trial. However, in contrast to the generality of this idea, this modulation is only stable when the irrelevant information contains spatial features, which coincided in the existing research with large conflict sizes and response conflicts. In two arrow flanker experiments, we investigated whether the congruency modulation depends on the size of the conflict, by manipulating the saliency of the target (Experiment 1) and the flankers (Experiment 2). Although these manipulations affected the size of the conflict caused by the flankers, neither experiment showed an influence of conflict size on the reduction of the congruency effect for repetitions as compared to alternation of the irrelevant flankers. We conclude that sustained-suppression is not a consequence of large conflicts, at least if sustained-suppression causes the congruency modulation.     

Evidenzbasierte Psychotherapie der Depression

Depressive disorders are among the most frequent reasons for utilizing the health care system. Despite the availability of efficacious treatments and further advances throughout the last years, there is still a need for improving diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. A promising approach is the implementation of evidence- and consensus-based guidelines. The German “Nationale VersorgungsLeitlinie Unipolare Depression” are evidence- and consensus-based clinical practise guidelines for patients with unipolar depression. All relevant stakeholders have been involved in its development and have passed the final version at the end of 2009 to foster compliance throughout. The available evidence allows the derivation of differentiated treatment recommendations, also with regard to concomitant antidepressant medication or as alternative treatment options. In acute therapy watchful waiting over 14 days is recommended for mild depression and psychotherapy after persistence of symptoms. In cases of moderate depression, psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy are equally recommended, in cases of severe depression a combination of both is recommended.     

A fast numerical algorithm for the estimation of diffusion model parameters

In this paper, we describe a new algorithmic approach for parameter estimation in Ratcliff's [(1978). A theory of memory retrieval. Psychological Review, 85 (2), 59-108] diffusion model. This problem, especially if inter-trial variabilities of parameters are included in the model, is computationally very expensive; the parameter estimation procedure often takes a long time even with today's high-speed computers. The algorithm described here makes the calculation of the cumulative distribution functions for predicted process durations computationally much less expensive. This improvement is achieved by solving the Kolmogorov backward equation numerically instead of employing the previously used closed form solution. Additionally, the algorithm can determine the optimum fit for one of the model parameters (the starting point z) directly, thereby reducing the dimension of the parameter search space by one. The resulting method is shown to be notably faster than the standard (closed-form solution) method for parameter estimation.     

Langzeitwirkungen psychoanalytischer und verhaltenstherapeutischer Langzeitpsychotherapien

The prospective study compares 31 patients in long-term behavior therapy with 31 patients in psychoanalytically oriented long-term therapy. A naturalistic design was applied within the German health system. All patients underwent a diagnostic interview (SCID) by an external interviewer. Only patients who fulfilled the DSM III-R criteria for a depression or an anxiety disorder were included in the study. Although the diagnoses of the patients undergoing long-term behaviour therapy and long-term psychoanalytical psychotherapy were comparable, we found that they differed in various ways. The differences arose in a number of characteristics, such as education, access to psychotherapy (recommended by professionals versus patients introducing themselves), usage of psychotropic medication, and the strain of symptoms. The average duration of long-term behavior therapy was 2.4 years and 64 sessions. The average duration of psychoanalytically oriented long-term therapy was 3.6 years and 209 sessions. Symptoms (SCL-90-R) and interpersonal problems (IIP) were examined at the beginning, after 1 year, 2.5 years, 3.5 years and after 7 years. Both groups showed significant degrees of improvement within the first 3.5 years and remained stabilized in the following 3.5 years regarding the symptomatic aspects. Focussing on the interpersonal problems, group PA showed further improvement after the 3.5-year period. The BT group however, showed no further improvement after 3.5 years but stabilized. The evaluated phase-model of psychotherapeutic change for short-term therapy was confirmed more clearly for long-term therapies of psychoanalytical orientation than for long-term therapies of behavioral orientation.