Affective forecasting and self-rated symptoms of depression,anxiety, and hypomania: Evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias

Emerging research has examined individual differences in affective forecasting; however, we are aware of no published study to date linking psychopathology symptoms to affective forecasting problems. Pitting cognitive theory against depressive realism theory, we examined whether dysphoria was associated with negatively biased affective forecasts or greater accuracy. Participants (n=325) supplied predicted and actual emotional reactions for three days surrounding an emotionally evocative relational event, Valentine's Day. Predictions were made a month prior to the holiday. Consistent with cognitive theory, we found evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias—the tendency of individuals in dysphoric states to overpredict negative emotional reactions to future events. The dysphoric forecasting bias was robust across ratings of positive and negative affect, forecasts for pleasant and unpleasant scenarios, continuous and categorical operationalisations of dysphoria, and three time points of observation. Similar biases were not observed in analyses examining the independent effects of anxiety and hypomania. Findings provide empirical evidence for the long-assumed influence of depressive symptoms on future expectations. The present investigation has implications for affective forecasting studies examining information-processing constructs, decision making, and broader domains of psychopathology.     

Using an Imagery Intervention to Train Visual Exploratory Activity in Elite Academy Football Players

Football players adapt their movements to opportunities within the surrounding environment by engaging in visual exploratory activity (VEA) to pick up information. This study adds to the extant literature by using a 6-week PETTLEP imagery intervention to train VEA and improve performance with the ball. A single-case, multiple baseline across participants' design was conducted with 5 elite academy football players. Results indicated that a PETTLEP imagery intervention improved VEA, particularly in center midfielders. In addition, indications of improvements in performance with the ball were present within some participants. Future researchers could examine the processes underpinning VEA to enhance applied interventions for this skill.     

Invited Review—Survey of Value‐Focused Thinking: Applications,Research Developments and Areas for Future Research

Criteria are the central focus of multi‐criteria decision analysis. Many authors have suggested using our values (or preferences) to define the criteria we use to evaluate alternatives. Value‐focused thinking (VFT) is an important philosophy that advocates a more fundamental view of values in our decision making in our private and professional lives. VFT proponents advocate starting first with our values and then using our values to create decision opportunities, evaluate alternatives and finally develop improved alternatives. It has been 20 years since VFT was first introduced by Ralph Keeney. This paper surveys the VFT literature to provide a comprehensive summary of the significant applications, describe the main research developments and identify areas for future research. We review the scope and magnitude of VFT applications and the key developments in theory since VFT was introduced in 1992 and found 89 papers written in 29 journals from 1992 to 2010. We develop about 20 research questions that include the type of article (application, theory, case study, etc.), the size of the decision space (which, when given, ranged from $200K to billions of dollars), the contribution documented in the article (application benefits) and the research contributions (categorized by preferences, uncertainties and alternatives). After summarizing the answers to these questions, we conclude the paper with suggestions for improving VFT applications and potential future research. We found a large number of significant VFT applications and several useful research contributions. We also found an increasing number of VFT papers written by international authors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding boundary extension: Normalization and extension errors in picture memory among adults and boys with and without Asperger's syndrome

Boundary extension is the tendency for people to “remember” information that fell outside a picture's boundaries. We used a novel test of boundary extension to provide absolute estimates of the magnitude of extension errors and of the degree to which people are influenced by the way a picture is presented at the time of testing. Participants were shown photographs on a computer and subsequently allowed to adjust their magnification to match the size they remembered. The test produced reliable boundary extension of around 11% in adults and large influences of initial test size. In a second experiment we tested boys diagnosed with Asperger's syndrome and matched controls. Both groups demonstrated boundary extension comparable to that observed in adults but greater effects of initial test size. High performance IQ in Asperger's was linked with high levels of boundary extension, while for the matched control group the opposite pattern was obtained.     

Laypeople do use sample variance: The effect of embedding data in a variance-implying story

When using sample data to decide whether two populations differ, laypeople attend to the difference between group means, but largely overlook within-group variability (Obrecht, Chapman, & Gelman, 2007 Obrecht, N. A., Chapman, G. B. and Gelman, R. 2007. Intuitive t-tests: Lay use of statistical information. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 14: 1147–1152.  [Google Scholar]). We show, first, that laypeople know about and use story-implied variability when making pairwise comparisons. Then we demonstrate that participants’ sensitivity to variance in a dataset is boosted when presented in a context that implies consistent variance information. Statistical data were couched in stories about electrical conductivity measurements obtained from element samples (low-variability category) or body weight measurements from samples of peoples (high-variability category). We manipulated, between participants, whether the data variance matched or mismatched the story-implied variability. Participants who received data in a matching context showed high sensitivity to variance, while those in the mismatching condition did not. Laypeople use statistical data to make reasonable inferences when those data are provided in a context that makes sense.     

The impact of school connectedness on violent behavior, transport risk-taking behavior, and associated injuries in adolescence

Adolescents engage in many risk-taking behaviors that have the potential to lead to injury. The school environment has a significant role in shaping adolescent behavior, and this study aimed to provide additional information about the benefits associated with connectedness to school. Early adolescents aged 13 to 15 years (N = 509, 49% boys) were surveyed about school connectedness, engagement in transport and violence risk-taking, and injury experiences. Significant relations were found between school connectedness and reduced engagement in both transport and violence risk-taking, as well as fewer associated injuries. This study has implications for the area of risk-taking and injury prevention, as it suggests the potential for reducing adolescents' injury through school based interventions targeting school connectedness.     

Using session-by-session measurement to compare mechanisms of action for acceptance and commitment therapy and cognitive therapy

Debate continues about the extent to which postulated mechanisms of action of cognitive behavior therapies (CBT), including standard CBT (i.e., Beckian cognitive therapy [CT]) and acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) are supported by mediational analyses. Moreover, the distinctiveness of CT and ACT has been called into question. One contributor to ongoing uncertainty in this arena is the lack of time-varying process data. In this study, 174 patients presenting to a university clinic with anxiety or depression who had been randomly assigned to receive either ACT or CT completed an assessment of theorized mediators and outcomes before each session. Hierarchical linear modeling of session-by-session data revealed that increased utilization of cognitive and affective change strategies relative to utilization of psychological acceptance strategies mediated outcome for CT, whereas for ACT the mediation effect was in the opposite direction. Decreases in self-reported dysfunctional thinking, cognitive "defusion" (the ability to see one's thoughts as mental events rather than necessarily as representations of reality), and willingness to engage in behavioral activity despite unpleasant thoughts or emotions were equivalent mediators across treatments. These results have potential implications for the theoretical arguments behind, and distinctiveness of, CT and ACT.