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The ability of players in a competitive team sport to assess win/loss probabilities, and the role that feedback plays in improving the quality of their assessments are the major foci of this study. The paper describes a study of sequential probability assessments by members of a women's field hockey team participating in a championship series. Several classes of cognitive models of probability revision were postulated and tested. The results of the paper indicate that (1) players generally attain a high level of calibration in their assessments, (2) their assessments are reliable and of high quality, (3) those who systematically and sensitively revise their probabilities attain, on average, significantly higher quality forecasts than those who are more conservative in responding to feedback scores, and (4) most of those who systematically revise their assessments in response to feedback scores appear to employ myopic models utilizing information about only one team—either their own or their opponents.  相似文献   
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Unlike potential tangible positive reinforcers, which are typically identified for inclusion in functional analyses empirically using preference assessments, demands are most often selected arbitrarily or based on caregiver report. The present study evaluated the use of a demand assessment with 12 participants who exhibited escape‐maintained problem behavior. Participants were exposed to 10 demands, with aversiveness measured by average latency to the first instance of problem behavior. In subsequent functional analyses, results of a demand condition that included the demand with the shortest latency to problem behavior resulted in identification of an escape function for 11 of the participants. In contrast, a demand condition that included the demand with the longest latency resulted in identification of an escape function for only 5 participants. The implication of these findings is that for the remaining 7 participants, selection of the demand for the functional analysis without using the results of the demand assessment could have produced a false‐negative finding.  相似文献   
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This research novelly explores how Future Time Perspective (FTP) plays a role in reflecting on goal failure and striving for future goals. Participants (N = 139) completed questionnaires assessing recent goal failure, procrastination, emotion regulation and FTP, then coded as either High or Low in FTP. Results support hypotheses that despite goal failure, those high in FTP procrastinated less, planned more and used more cognitive reappraisal strategies. Further, procrastination and cognitive reappraisal significantly predicted FTP scores. Thus, goal failure may be an essential part of learning how to achieve high self‐regulation goals. However, it may discourage some from trying again, particularly those low in FTP. Findings suggest the FTP may offer a strategy to aid attainment of important high self‐regulated, long‐term goals.  相似文献   
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It is well known that when humans are given a choice between two options, their preference is affected by the presence of a third. Generally, there is an increase in preference for the option closer to the third. We show that a shift in preference in the direction away from the third option can occur in animals. We gave pigeons a choice between A, reinforcement following 10 pecks and a 0.5‐s delay, and B, reinforcement following 5 pecks and a 1.5‐s delay. Once stable preferences were established, we introduced a third stimulus, less preferred than the other two: C, reinforcement following 20 pecks and a 0.5‐s delay or D, reinforcement following 5 pecks and a 4.5‐s delay. We found that pigeons presented with C showed an increased preference for B, whereas pigeons presented with D showed an increased preference for A. Our results were consistent with the similarity or attentional hypothesis, which suggests that the third option should interfere with the option more similar to it or would draw attention to the less preferred component of the third option and generalize to the option more similar to it. Possible accounts for the differences in outcomes are suggested.  相似文献   
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