O „dobrej” I „złej” indukcji

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On „good” and „bad” induction

     

A belief in trend reversal requires access to cognitive resources

There are two research traditions studying people's reactions to random binary events: one concerns serial choice reaction times, the other concerns predictions of events in a series. The present studies focused on comparing expectations between these two approaches. We formed and tested a general hypothesis that, regardless of the type of task, when an individual faces a sequence of events they initially expect trend continuation. Only when people assume that a sequence is random might they override the default and expect trend reversal instead. In a series of experiments we found that limitation of access to cognitive resources enhances expectations of trend continuation. Our interpretation of this finding is that an expectation of trend continuation is the default for the human cognitive system and that a belief in trend reversal requires access to cognitive resources to overcome the tendency to expect trend continuation.     

Emotional Distress Associated with Surgical Treatment and its Relationship with Coping Profiles Among Chronically ill Older Patients

The study determines the patterns of coping styles among older patients with hip osteoarthritis and assesses the derived profiles in terms of perceived stress and anxiety before and after arthroplasty. Sixty-one hospital patients (mean age 70.3 years) were analysed one day before arthroplasty and three months after. The participants were assessed with the Brief-COPE (coping style), PSS-10 (perceived stress) and STAI (anxiety) psychometric tests. Four coping patterns were yielded using data clustering: rational, enterprising (resourceful), potentially maladaptive and flexible. Repeated measures ANOVA indicated a main effect within subjects but did not indicate that decreases of stress and anxiety varied differently between groups. Cluster 1 (a coping profile characterised by high helplessness, low active coping, high avoidance) reported significantly greater stress and anxiety than all other groups before and after hip replacement, while clusters 2 (flexible), 3 (resourceful) and 4 (rational) were characterised by similar levels of anxiety and stress. Older patients with osteoarthritis might differ in terms of emotional response to surgical treatment. Screening for coping styles at admission to hospital may indicate more vulnerable individuals.     

Structural Essentialism and Determinism

The paper tries to develop Bartels’s modern essentialism as a structural-role theory of identity for spacetime points. I adopt Hoefer’s idea of denying primitive identity for this theory and apply it to GTR and prerelativistic physics to find different versions of essentialism and different definitions of determinism which are coherent with them. I also try to argue that modified essentialism helps us to refute objections raised against essentialism and offers us the best understanding of prerelativistic and relativistic theories.     

The role of rehearsals in self-generated prospective memory tasks

In order to inquire into the nature of retrieval in prospective memory in a naturalistic context, we investigated the number and circumstances of rehearsals of different kinds of intentions to be pursued during a single time period. Thirty-six students were given four minutes to generate a list of tasks they were planning to perform over the course of 10 days. During this retention interval, they were provided with pocket-size diaries in which they recorded the details of each occasion they thought about the tasks previously listed. As to the nature of any triggers or cues that prompted rehearsal, the participants were asked to choose one of three alternatives: (1) association with an internal or an external cue that accidently appeared in the surroundings (accidental rehearsals), (2) deliberate thinking, e.g. while planning (self-initiated rehearsals), (3) recollection that spontaneously popped into one's mind for no apparent reason (no-trigger rehearsals). The results showed that thoughts about intended actions appeared more often after accidental cues than for no apparent reason. However, the relative contribution of self-initiated triggers to the rehearsal process was substantial: Most importantly, it was the self-initiated rehearsal that differentiated between executed and unexecuted actions. In addition, the most activated intention resulted in a higher frequency of no-trigger and self-initiated rehearsals than the remaining intentions. Finally, perceived intention importance was positively related to both the number of rehearsals and the likelihood of successful task completion. The results are discussed with regard to which factors may be crucial for the successful performance of participants' own self-generated intentions in a natural setting. The role of deliberate rehearsal in specifying the details of the intended action and its designated retrieval context is highlighted.