Causal explanation improves judgment under uncertainty,but rarely in a Bayesian way

Three studies reexamined the claim that clarifying the causal origin of key statistics can increase normative performance on Bayesian problems involving judgment under uncertainty. Experiments 1 and 2 found that causal explanation did not increase the rate of normative solutions. However, certain types of causal explanation did lead to a reduction in the magnitude of errors in probability estimation. This effect was most pronounced when problem statistics were expressed in percentage formats. Experiment 3 used process-tracing methods to examine the impact of causal explanation of false positives on solution strategies. Changes in probability estimation following causal explanation were the result of a mixture of individual reasoning strategies, including non-Bayesian mechanisms, such as increased attention to explained statistics and approximations of subcomponents of Bayes’ rule. The results show that although causal explanation of statistics can affect the way that a problem is mentally represented, this does not necessarily lead to an increased rate of normative responding.     

Abstract: Inference and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects With Latent Variable Models

Models specifying indirect effects (or mediation) and structural equation modeling are both popular in the social sciences. Yet relatively little research has compared methods that test for indirect effects among latent variables and provided precise estimates of the effectiveness of different methods.

This simulation study provides an extensive comparison of methods for constructing confidence intervals and for making inferences about indirect effects with latent variables. We compared the percentile (PC) bootstrap, bias-corrected (BC) bootstrap, bias-corrected accelerated (BC _a ) bootstrap, likelihood-based confidence intervals (Neale & Miller, 1997), partial posterior predictive (Biesanz, Falk, and Savalei, 2010), and joint significance tests based on Wald tests or likelihood ratio tests. All models included three reflective latent variables representing the independent, dependent, and mediating variables. The design included the following fully crossed conditions: (a) sample size: 100, 200, and 500; (b) number of indicators per latent variable: 3 versus 5; (c) reliability per set of indicators: .7 versus .9; (d) and 16 different path combinations for the indirect effect (α = 0, .14, .39, or .59; and β = 0, .14, .39, or .59). Simulations were performed using a WestGrid cluster of 1680 3.06GHz Intel Xeon processors running R and OpenMx.

Results based on 1,000 replications per cell and 2,000 resamples per bootstrap method indicated that the BC and BC _a bootstrap methods have inflated Type I error rates. Likelihood-based confidence intervals and the PC bootstrap emerged as methods that adequately control Type I error and have good coverage rates.     

Unity and the Frege–Geach problem

The problem of the unity of the proposition asks what binds together the constituents of a proposition into a fully formed proposition that provides truth conditions for the assertoric sentence that expresses it, rather than merely a set of objects. Hanks’ solution is to reject the traditional distinction between content and force. If his theory is successful, then there is a plausible extension of it that readily solves the Frege–Geach problem for normative propositions. Unfortunately Hanks’ theory isn’t successful, but it does point to significant connections between expressivism, unity, and embedding.     

Religion and Mestrovic's postemotional society: The manufacturing of religious emotion

Work on the social theory of emotion has been growing in the last decade, but few have considered how these studies relate to the field of religion. This article is a detailed critical examination of the work of the Croatian‐American sociologist Stjepan Mestrovic and his idea of ‘postemotionalism’. It is an exploration of the implications of his work for understanding contemporary manifestations of religion. It first unfolds the context of Mestrovic's work on postemotionalism and then explores the development and meaning of the term. It follows a series of tensions in the concept between spontaneous and produced emotion and seeks to show how postemotionalism fails to consider adequately religious history, which has continually involved the process of repackaging ‘past emotions’. Despite these difficulties, Mestrovic's idea of postemotionalism is seen to provide not only a way to rethink emotion and rationality in religion, but a way of re-conceptualising so-called ‘individual’ religious emotion as part of wider political constructions developed through late capitalistic markets and the technology of mass media. Mestrovic's lack of concern with religion is considered, and the work of the French sociologist of religion Danie` le Hervieu-Le ger on ‘chain memory’ is introduced as a way of illuminating questions of religious tradition, memory and emotion in Mestrovic's work. The final section of the paper considers the ‘revivalist’ developments of Celtic Spirituality as an example of the micro-politics of postemotional religion.     

Inadequate Housing Among Families Under Investigation for Child Abuse and Neglect: Prevalence from a National Probability Sample

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of inadequate housing that threaten out-of-home placement among families under investigation by child welfare. Data came from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being, a nationally representative longitudinal survey of child welfare-involved families. Child protective services caseworkers as well as caregivers provided information on families whose child remained in the home after initial investigation (N = 3,867). Multilevel latent class analyses tested the presence of inadequately housed subgroups using 4 housing problem indicators at baseline. Logistic regressions assessed convergent and predictive validity. A two class latent solution best fit the data. Findings indicated that inadequate housing contributed to risk for out-of-home placement in approximately 16 % of intact families under investigation by child protective services. These families were 4 times more likely to need housing services 12 months later. Federal legislation emphasizes integration of social services as necessary to end homelessness. This study demonstrates overlap across public agencies. Enhanced coordination of child welfare and housing services facilitates interventions to prevent and mitigate homelessness.     

The Relationship Between Forgiveness and Borderline Personality Symptomatology

The relationship between forgiveness and borderline personality symptomatology has been rarely studied. Using a consecutive cross-sectional sample of 307 internal medicine outpatients and a survey methodology, we examined correlations between the Forgiveness Scale and borderline personality symptomatology as measured by the borderline personality disorder scale of the Personality Diagnostic Questionnaire-4 and the Self-Harm Inventory. Numerous forgiveness subscales as well as the composite Forgiveness Scale score demonstrated statistically significant relationships with both measures for borderline personality symptomatology, such that individuals with this personality pathology demonstrated lower scores on these forgiveness subscales. Findings indicate that among individuals with borderline personality symptomatology, there are numerous aspects of forgiveness that are significantly lower than in individuals without this symptomatology.     

Beyond the Schools of Psychology 1: A Digital Analysis of Psychological Review, 1894–1903

Traditionally, American psychology at the turn of the twentieth century has been framed as a competition among a number of “schools”: structuralism, functionalism, behaviorism, etc. But this is only one way in which the “structure” of the discipline can be conceived. Most psychologists did not belong to a particular school, but they still worked within loose intellectual communities, and so their work was part of an implicit psychological “genre,” if not a formalized “school.” In this study, we began the process of discovering the underlying genres of American psychology at the turn of the twentieth century by taking the complete corpus of articles from the journal Psychological Review during the first decade of its publication and conducting a statistical analysis of the vocabularies they employed to see what clusters of articles naturally emerged. Although the traditional functionalist school was among the clusters we found, we also found distinct research traditions around the topics of color vision, spatial vision, philosophy/metatheory, and emotion. In addition, momentary clusters corresponding to important debates (e.g., the variability hypothesis) appeared during certain years, but not others.     

Asymmetrical loading affects intersegmental dynamics during the swing phase of walking

Much of the work related to lower extremity inertia manipulations has focused on temporal, kinematic and traditional inverse dynamics assessments during locomotion. Intersegmental dynamics is an analytical technique that provides further insights into mechanisms underlying linked-segment motion. The purpose of this study was to determine how intersegmental dynamics during the swing phase of walking are altered during asymmetrical lower extremity loading. Participants walked overground at a speed of 1.57 m s^?1 with 0, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 kg attached to one foot. Net, interaction, gravitational, and muscle moments were computed. Moment magnitudes at joints of the loaded leg increased systematically with increasing load, whereas unloaded leg moments were unaffected by loading. With increasing load, relative contributions of interaction moments about the knee and hip and gravitational moment about the ankle increased (i.e., 21%, 8%, and 44% increases, respectively), whereas the relative contributions of muscle moments about all three joints declined (i.e., ?4%, ?13%, and ?8% decreases for the ankle, knee, and hip, respectively for unloaded vs. 2.0 kg). These results suggest that altered inertia properties of the limb not only affected the amount of muscular effort required to swing the leg, but also changed the nature of the interaction between segments.     

The Origins of Social Citizenship in Pre-Apartheid South Africa

Abstract

South Africa's 1996 Constitution promises a measure of ‘social citizenship’ alongside formal political and legal equality. South Africa's public welfare and social policies may be less effective in ensuring social citizenship, through reducing insecurity and inequality, than those of the more established democracies, but they are far more effective than those of other ‘developing’ countries. The origins of social citizenship in South Africa lie in the early and mid-1940s, when the state first assumed responsibility for the welfare, broadly understood, of all South Africans. The most significant achievement was the introduction of a universal old-age pension system. The importance of these initiatives has been largely overlooked. This has been in part because later scholars largely ignored the heterogeneity of liberal thought in South Africa in the mid-twentieth century, as followers of the ‘New Liberalism’ broke with the classical liberalism of John Stuart Mill and argued for a range of state interventions in social and economic life. In South Africa, as elsewhere, the Second World War provided a context in which revised liberal thought gave rise to major policy reforms, some of which were to survive even the election of a National Party government in 1948.     

Updating the Baldwin effect : The biological levels behind Piaget's new theory

In 1964, Conrad Waddington (1905–1975) presented a paper in Geneva that led to an internal reassessment of the biological underpinnings of Jean Piaget's (1896–1980) theory. This in turn resulted in an overhaul of the theoretical framework upon which his stage theory of child development had been based, including his appeals to James Mark Baldwin's (1861–1934) “circular reaction.” In addition to leading to the emergence of what has elsewhere been called “Piaget's new theory,” this renovation also resulted in the update of the famous “Baldwin Effect.” Because aspects of the subsequent framework are of contemporary significance, this essay will review some of the work leading up to those updates. In reaching behind the translations to trace the sources of the arguments to which Piaget appealed, the resulting examination fills some of the gaps found in the secondary literature without quibbling over the “correct” English interpretation of translated French terms. We also go beyond how Piaget's writings have been understood in English and extract some useful additional ideas from his sources, including how to conceive of the social context in which development takes place. We see as a result how Waddington and his colleagues, including Paul Weiss (1898–1989), provided a constructive “existence proof” for the formal hierarchy of levels that Piaget had come to by other means.