Calibration of probability assessments by professional blackjack dealers, statistical experts, and lay people

The question addressed in this study is whether experts are better calibrated than lay people. We investigated how well people are calibrated when they assess the probabilities of card combinations in the game of blackjack. Three groups of subjects were used: professional dealers, statistical experts, and control subjects. The results showed that experience and statistical expertise do not make people better calibrated in this task. It is argued that the concept of calibration is not wholly appropriate to describe the obtained deviations from the normatively correct responses. This is illustrated by a discriminant analysis performed on the signed deviation scores, which resulted in an almost perfect separation of the three groups, although they were overlapping with respect to calibration.     

When not to choose: A case study

Life situations often seem to require dualistic, either or decision making, but this common method does not always clarify moral decisions. To show this, standard arguments on why to choose or not to choose the sex or ones child are presented. Then, our feminist thinking, which regards clusters of values, and which reframes questions rather than choosing between desirable alternatives, suggests another possibility, in a gynandrous world vision.     

Circadian factors during sustained performance: Background and methodology

Cornell University Medical College, Westchester Division, The New York Hospital, White Plains, New York It is well established that there is a complex timekeeping mechanism in the human brain. This mechanism is associated with a variety of physiological and psychological rhythms having a period of about a day, and thus referred to as circadian rhythms. The circadian system has recently been modeled in terms of two underlying oscillators, one much more resistant to changes in routine than the other. These oscillators are considered to be endogenous, that is, internal to the organism, and not reliant for their existence upon changes in the person’s environment or general behavior. They thus continue to run even when the sleep/wake cycle is suspended, as in sustained operations. Thus, by their very nature, sustained operations require the individual to override the inputs that are coming from his or her circadian system (especially the indication that sleep is required). The aim of this paper is to provide a background to the area of circadian rhythms research, including a section on the methodology, so that the impact of the circadian system on sustained operations can be better understood.     

Relationships between perceptions of organizational size and the organizational choice process

Expectancy theory concepts were used to predict (a) the attractiveness of, (b) the amount of effort directed toward entering, and (c) the eventual choice of a job in relatively big and small work organizations. It was found, among a group of graduating seniors from a technical college, that antecedent perceptions regarding organizational size (expectancy, valence, instrumentality) were significantly related to the relative attractiveness of different-sized organizations and the number of job interviews taken with relatively big and small companies. In addition, economically tied extrinsic outcomes were seen as more readily attainable in big organizations, whereas certain intrinsic outcomes were perceived to be more easily obtained in small organizations.     

Experimental evidence for the similarity of personality and attitude item responding

The process of responding to attitude items was broken down into a series of cognitive stages and a model offered. To test this model, subjects responded to attitude items varying in Extremity under two or five response alternative formats. By measuring response times, and applying Sternberg's (1969) additive factor method, the model was supported. The results were discussed in terms of previous process work involving personality items and sentence verification tasks.     

The effects of memory load and the contrast of the rod signal on partial report superiority in a Sperling task

Subjects participated in a Sperling task. The independent variables included delay of report cue, dark background field vs. a light background field intense enough to nearly saturate the rod system (duration of rod icon), and whether or not subjects were required to retain a list of letters or words (memory load) while performing in the Sperling task. Partial report superiority is normally taken as an indication of iconic memory. However, the main result was that memory load, which presumably does not affect the duration of the icon, increased partial report superiority. The effect of luminance of the background field was to reduce the partial report superiority. The results show that the existence of a partial report superiority and/or a decaying partial report curve does not necessarily imply the existence of an icon or visual storage.     

The children of Mexican-American migrant workers: A population at risk?

The present study assessed intellectual, academic, and emotional strengths and weaknesses for a group of Mexican-American children of migrant farm workers. In order to test the vulnerability hypothesis, the test profiles of these children were contrasted with those of two groups of black children with similar demographic makeup. The children of one group (Clinical Black) had been referred previously for a psychological consultation while the children of the other (Nonreferred Black) had not. Across dependent measures, between-groups contrasts tended to describe the scores of the Migrant children as similar to those of the Clinical Black children and significantly below those of the Nonreferred Black children. The findings suggested specific intellectual, academic, and emotional vulnerabilities of the Migrant children and demonstrated the need to develop ameliorative programs for these children.The authors wish to thank the staff of C & Y, University of Virginia Hospital, especially Ms. Deborah Johnson and Ms. Suzanne Canale, whose cooperation and assistance made this project possible.