The Mind of the Scenario Thinker

In the face of increasing uncertainty and changes, corporations must dynamically examine their business environment and activate the knowledge creation process in a future-oriented manner without getting hung up on analyzing their past (much like driving a car using only the rear-view mirror). In the previous article, we discussed the basics of scenario planning. We should not use this tool as a mere technique. Our knowledge of the world and the environment around us is important because it underlies our scenarios. When we look toward the future in an uncertain environment, we necessarily create knowledge proactively. Scenario planning and knowledge creation are commonplace when working on knowledge of innovations that shape the future. In this article we focus on the importance of having “scenario mind,” the philosophy underlying scenario planning. With any managerial tool, you cannot create real knowledge if you use only superficial know-how, like procedures described in manuals, to seek quick results. In the following sections, we discuss how scenario planning must be recognized as a “discipline of knowledge” to be embedded as a way of thinking and behavioral pattern of each individual or organization, not as a mere tool.     

Owl vs Owl: Examining an Environmental Moral Tragedy

Philosophia - In the United States, the northern spotted owl has declined throughout the Pacific Northwest even though its habitat has been protected under the Endangered Species Act. The main...     

A Preliminary Evaluation of Functional Communication Training Effectiveness and Language Preference When Spanish and English are Manipulated

We evaluated whether differences in treatment effectiveness or preference between languages emerged across Spanish and English during functional communication training (FCT) for young children with developmental disabilities exposed to Spanish and English in the home environment. Participants were 2 young children with developmental disabilities who displayed destructive behavior maintained by social contingencies and whose families spoke Spanish and English at home. All procedures were conducted in the participants’ homes by their mothers with coaching from the investigator. The effectiveness of FCT was evaluated within a reversal design across baseline, FCT, and extinction conditions. A multielement design across language type (Spanish and English) was embedded within the reversal design during the extinction and FCT conditions to evaluate differences in treatment effectiveness across type of language. Finally, during all FCT sessions, a concurrent schedules design was used to evaluate participant preference for type of language. Results suggested that FCT was effective in reducing destructive behavior, increasing manding, and/or increasing task completion for these 2 participants across Spanish and English treatment conditions. Preference for the type of language did not emerge for either participant during FCT. Results are discussed in terms of the merits of systematically evaluating language variables when working with culturally and linguistically diverse families and children.     

Seeing while acting: hand movements can modulate attentional capture by motion onset

The onset of new motion has been shown to be a very robust cause of attentional capture, generating a processing advantage for the location of motion onset regardless of the observer's concurrent goal. The present study, motivated by the common-coding account of action and perception, examined whether the effect of motion onset on visual attention can be modulated by the observer's mode of action. Specifically, the common-coding account predicts that preparing an action can render the features that are used in the action plan less available for visual processes. Consistent with this hypothesis, in Experiment 1 the magnitude of attentional capture caused by a single motion onset was reduced when this motion was similar to the observer's response (i.e., along the same axis). Similarly, in Experiment 2 the onset of a response-different motion gained a processing advantage over the response-similar motion onset when the two were presented simultaneously. Since both types of motion were present in every trial, the results of Experiment 2 suggest that response similarity affected visual-attentional processes rather than motor processes. Together, these results suggest that the processes of attentional prioritization caused by motion onset can be modulated by the observer's concurrent action.     

Modulating Fitts's Law: perceiving targets at the last placeholder

Fitts's Law predicts increasing movement times (MTs) with increasing movement amplitudes; however, when targets are placed in a structured perceptual array containing placeholders, MTs to targets in the last position are shorter than predicted. We conducted three experiments to determine if this modulation has a perceptual cause. Experiment 1, which used extremely diminished (three pixel) placeholders, showed that the modulation is not due to perceptual interference from neighboring placeholders. Experiment 2, which measured reaction times using a target detection task, showed that the modulation does not result from speeded perceptual processing at the last position of the array. Experiment 3, which measured accuracy using a masked letter-discrimination task, showed that the modulation does not result from the increased quality of perceptual representation at the last position of the array. Overall, these findings suggest that the changes in effectiveness of visual processing (less interference, speeded processing, and increased quality) at the last position in the perceptual array do not drive the modulation. Thus, while the locus of the Fitts's Law modulation appears to be in the movement planning stage, it is likely not due to perceptual mechanisms.     

Common factors of change in couple therapy

Though it is clear from meta-analytic research that couple therapy works well, it is less clear how couple therapy works. Efforts to attribute change to the unique ingredients of a particular model have consistently turned up short, leading many researchers to suggest that change is due to common factors that run through different treatment approaches and settings. The purpose of this article is to provide an empirically based case for several common factors in couple therapy, and discuss clinical, training, and research implications for a common factors couple therapy paradigm. Critical distinctions between model-driven and common factors paradigms are also discussed, and a moderate common factors approach is proposed as a more useful alternative to an extreme common factors approach.     

The flexibility of emotional attention: Accessible social identities guide rapid attentional orienting

There is extensive evidence that emotional-especially threatening-stimuli rapidly capture attention. These findings are often explained in terms of a hard-wired and relatively inflexible fear module. We propose an alternative, more flexible mechanism, arguing that motivational relevance is the crucial factor driving rapid attentional orienting. To test our hypothesis, we endowed initially neutral face stimuli with relevance by randomly assigning them to a social in-group or out-group during a 1-min learning phase, and used these faces as cues in a dot probe task to measure rapid attentional orienting. Across three experiments, we observed attentional orienting toward faces assigned to the out-group. Initial rapid orienting (after 100ms, Experiments 1 and 2) was observed only for familiar faces for which group membership was explicitly encoded, suggesting that rapid orienting may be based on affectively charged memory traces. At a later time point (after 500ms, Experiment 3), attention was deployed toward unfamiliar faces sharing a physical attribute (background color) with the familiar out-group faces, suggesting a more time-consuming on-line appraisal of the stimulus. The amount of attentional bias to out-group faces was correlated with individual differences in the accessibility of group identification. Our findings demonstrate that attentional prioritization mechanisms can be flexibly tuned by a brief learning phase of social identity. This is consistent with the idea that attention mechanisms subserving the selection and prioritization of emotional aspects of the environment are not static and hard-wired, but may rapidly adapt to recent changes in motivational contingencies.     

Beyond cumulative risk: distinguishing harshness and unpredictability as determinants of parenting and early life history strategy

Drawing on life history theory, Ellis and associates' (2009) recent across- and within-species analysis of ecological effects on reproductive development highlighted two fundamental dimensions of environmental variation and influence: harshness and unpredictability. To evaluate the unique contributions of these factors, the authors of present article examined data from a national sample 1364 mothers and their children participating in the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development. Harshness was operationalized as income-to-needs ratio in the first 5 years of life; unpredictability was indexed by residential changes, paternal transitions, and parental job changes during this same period. Here the proposition was tested that these factors not only uniquely predict accelerated life-history strategy, operationalized in terms of sexual behavior at age 15, but that such effects are mediated by change over the early-childhood years in maternal depression and, thereby, observed maternal sensitivity in the early-elementary-school years. Structural equation modeling provided empirical support for Ellis et al.'s (2009) theorizing, calling attention once again to the contribution of evolutionary analysis to understanding contemporary human parenting and development. Implications of the findings for intervention are discussed.