Improvement of Thematic Classification in Offender Profiling: Classifying Serbian Homicides Using Multiple Correspondence,Cluster, and Discriminant Function Analyses

This paper investigates thematic classification of homicides for the purpose of behavioural investigative analysis (e.g. offender profiling). Previous research has predominantly used smallest space analysis (SSA) to conceptualise and classify offences into thematic groups based on crime scene behaviour data. This paper introduces a combined approach utilising multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), cluster analysis (CA), and discriminant function analysis (DFA) to define and differentiate crime scenes into expressive or instrumental and impersonal or personal crimes. MCA is used to derive the latent structural dimensions in the crime data and produce quantitative scores for each offence along these dimensions. Two‐step CA was then utilised to classify offences. Offence dimensional scores were then used to predict cluster membership under DFA, producing cluster centroids corresponding to MCA dimensions. Centroids were plotted on the MCA correspondence map to simultaneously conceptualise crime classification and the latent structure of the Serbian crime data. Classification of offences based on MCA dimensional scores were 91.5% accurate. This MCA–CA–DFA approach may reduce some of the more subjective aspects of SSA methodology used in classification, whilst producing a product more amenable to objective and cumulative review. Implications for offender profiling research utilising SSA and this approach are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Substance use treatment programs in the active duty US military: A narrative review

Substance use disorders (SUDs) are a growing problem for the U.S. military. Each branch of the military has its own dedicated substance abuse treatment program. However, there has been limited attention to the research conducted on these programs. The purpose of this narrative review is to describe SUD treatment programs in the U.S. military and to review the extant research published between 2001–2015. Fourteen peer-reviewed articles, 2 official reports, 1 book chapter, 1 thesis, and 1 dissertation were identified. Most SUD treatment programs are nonconfidential, although a confidential program is being piloted by the Army. Recently, the programs have increased their focus on assessment and treatment of comorbid psychological disorders. Further research is required to examine the efficacy, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of the treatment programs.     

Modeling effects of risk and social distance on vaccination choice

Despite vaccines' consistently demonstrated effectiveness, vaccination rates remain suboptimal due to vaccine refusal. Low vaccination rates are particularly problematic for individuals who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons and thus must rely on herd immunity (i.e., protection of vulnerable individuals due to the high rate of vaccination of other—often socially distant—individuals). The current study uses a novel decision‐making task to examine how three variables impacted participants' highest acceptable probability of side effects to their children: 1) the severity of the side effects their children experience, 2) the social distance to the beneficiary of the vaccination, and 3) the probability that the vaccine will prevent disease for that designated beneficiary. Participants' willingness to risk potential side effects of vaccination systematically decreased as the 1) effectiveness of the vaccination decreased, 2) the beneficiary of the vaccination became more socially distant, and 3) the severity of side effects increased. These data were well‐described by behavioral economic models used to examine the discounting of other health behavior.     

Examination stress as an ecological inducer of cortisol and psychological responses to stress in undergraduate students

The purpose of the present study was to investigate basic methodological issues related to the usage of an examination stress protocol in studies of psychoneuroendocrinology. In the present study, 57 undergraduate students served as participants. All subjects provided salivary samples and completed psychological inventories during a low examination stress period and again during a high examination stress period. Salivary samples were analyzed for cortisol. Three major findings were observed. First, the examination stress protocol proved to be an effective trigger of elevations in both psychological measures of stress and in cortisol levels. Second, sex differences were observed in cortisol levels, such that males showed an elevation in cortisol during the high examination stress session whereas females did not. Finally, no significant correlations were observed between elevations in psychological measures of stress and elevations in cortisol levels. These findings suggest that the examination stress protocol used in the present study effectively elevated both psychological stress and cortisol levels. Furthermore, these findings suggest that there are biological differences in how males and females respond to stress. Finally, no evidence was found to suggest a relationship between psychological and hormonal levels of stress. Together, these findings suggest the need to better define and consider the implications of both the specific measures of stress being used and individual differences in the subject samples in psychoendocrine studies.     

The Objective Value of Subjective Value: A Multi‐Round Negotiation Study

A 2‐round negotiation study provided evidence that positive feelings resulting from one negotiation can be economically rewarding in a second negotiation. Negotiators experiencing greater subjective value (SV)—that is, social, perceptual, and emotional outcomes from a negotiation—in Round 1 achieved greater individual and joint objective negotiation performance in Round 2, even with Round 1 economic outcomes controlled. Moreover, Round 1 SV predicted the desire to negotiate again with the same counterpart, whereas objective negotiation performance had no such association. Taken together, the results suggest that positive feelings, not just positive outcomes, can evoke future economic success.     

Beta-MPT: Multinomial processing tree models for addressing individual differences

Traditionally, multinomial processing tree (MPT) models are applied to groups of homogeneous participants, where all participants within a group are assumed to have identical MPT model parameter values. This assumption is unreasonable when MPT models are used for clinical assessment, and it often may be suspect for applications to ordinary psychological experiments. One method for dealing with parameter variability is to incorporate random effects assumptions into a model. This is achieved by assuming that participants’ parameters are drawn independently from some specified multivariate hyperdistribution. In this paper we explore the assumption that the hyperdistribution consists of independent beta distributions, one for each MPT model parameter. These beta-MPT models are ‘hierarchical models’, and their statistical inference is different from the usual approaches based on data aggregated over participants. The paper provides both classical (frequentist) and hierarchical Bayesian approaches to statistical inference for beta-MPT models. In simple cases the likelihood function can be obtained analytically; however, for more complex cases, Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are constructed to assist both approaches to inference. Examples based on clinical assessment studies are provided to demonstrate the advantages of hierarchical MPT models over aggregate analysis in the presence of individual differences.     

The phenomenon of hate crimes in the United States

This review examines the phenomenon of hate crimes in the United States. Findings derived from the FBI data for the period 1996–2008 revealed that the incidence of anti‐racial hate crimes varied among different racial groups, that antireligious hate crimes were committed toward Jews and Muslims more than toward others, and that antisexual orientation hate crimes focused on male homosexuals more than others. Antireligious hate crimes were more likely to be directed against property, whereas anti‐racial and antisexual orientation hate crimes were more likely to be directed against people. We discuss these findings in the light of some relevant theoretical perspectives from social psychology. Potential solutions to hate crimes could be developed by focusing on the most relevant predictive factors.     

‘Tell me what I want to hear’: Motivated recall and attributions in media regarding asylum seekers

Within Australia, divisive debates regarding the processing of asylum seekers have delivered increasing polarisation rather than convergence on an evidence‐based, humane approach. In order to investigate the role of motivated reasoning (the idea that our judgment is based on our motivations) with respect to attributions of warmth and competence, 186 participants indicated the extent to which they accepted false beliefs regarding asylum seekers. They read an article rebutting such false beliefs and then reported their attitudes towards the author and the extent to which the author possessed warmth and competence traits. They then reported whether they agreed with the information in the article before completing a test of recall. Participants who disagreed with the article recalled less accurate information and rated authors significantly lower on warmth and competence. These findings suggest that motivated reasoning plays an important role in the way stereotypes are applied and in the way information is processed.     

Trapping the Metasemantic Metaphilosophical Deflationist?

Some philosophers are metaphilosophical deflationists for metasemantic reasons. These theorists take standard philosophical assertions to be defective in some manner. There are various versions of metasemantic metaphilosophical deflationism, but a trap awaits any global version of it: metasemantics itself is a part of philosophy, so in deflating philosophy these theorists have thereby deflated the foundation of their deflationism. The present article discusses this issue and the prospects for an adequate response to the trap. Contrary to most historical responses (some of which it discusses), the article argues that the best response to the trap is to adopt a local but still pervasive metasemantic deflationism. Such a response might seem ad hoc, but the article argues that the human activity of philosophy isn't a natural kind, and that a heterogeneous metaphilosophy of the appropriate kind is well motivated.