Confidence depends on level of aggregation

The credible intervals that people set around their point estimates are typically too narrow (cf. Lichtenstein, Fischhoff, & Phillips, 1982). That is, a set of many such intervals does not contain the actual values of the criterion variables as often as it should given the probability assigned to this event for each estimate. The typical interpretation of such data is that people are overconfident about the accuracy of their judgments. This paper presents data from two studies showing the typical levels of overconfidence for individual estimates of unknown quantities. However, data from the same subjects on a different measure of confidence for the same items, their own global assessment for the set of multiple estimates as a whole, showed significantly lower levels of confidence and overconfidence than their average individual assessment for items in the set. It is argued that the event and global assessments of judgment quality are fundamentally different and are affected by unique psychological processes. Finally, we discuss the implications of a difference between confidence in single and multiple estimates for confidence research and theory.     

Gender displays in portrait photographs

Following the research of Goffman (1976) and Henley (1977) on sex differences in nonverbal behavior, 1,296 portrait photographs from high school and university yearbooks and from the media files of a university were analyzed for sex differences. Females smiled with a significantly greater frequency and expansiveness than males and head canted significantly more than males. Results supporting the hypothesis that males would face the camera more directly than females failed to reach the acceptable significance level. The prediction that persons working in opposite-sex roles would deintensify their gender displays failed to gain support.The author expresses appreciation to Bill Drell and Andrea Wilson for their assistance in data collection.     

The Impact of Time Proximity and Level of Generality on Attitude-Behavior Consistency1

This study examines the effects of (1) generality equivalence between attitudinal and behavioral entities and (2) the order and proximity of the attitude and behavior questions on the observed relationship between attitudes and behavior. The behaviors examined are sentence recommendations for six hypothetical defendants. The sample is composed of 185 line probation officers from New York State. The variables chosen conform to Martin Fishbein's model of behavioral intentions. As predicted, the observed relationship is affected by both level of specificity and proximity of the questions. Order of the questions has little effect.     

A leaderless approach to a minister's peer-support group

This article describes a support group for ministers that uses a leaderless approach. The group has met for over ten years and as a result of that experience has developed in ways that make it unique. These group characteristics are described and are offered as a general guide for ministers as well as members of other helping professions who are interested in peer support.     

Effects of degree of interpersonal similarity on physical distance and self-reported attraction: A comparison of uniqueness and reinforcement theory predictions

The apparently divergent similarity-attraction findings of the reinforcement theory and uniqueness theory researchers were investigated by exposing male (N = 45) and female (N = 45) subjects to conditions of slight, moderate, or high similarity relative to one comparison other. Similarity was manipulated by means of a bogus personality and attitude inventory. For the self-report measures, results consistent with reinforcement theory were obtained in that greater self-reported attraction to the partner was linearly related to increased similarity. Additionally, interpersonal distance was curvilinearly related to similarity. This distancing pattern reflected the fact that moderate similarity subjects positioned themselves relatively closer to the other person's chair than the slight or high similarity subjects. The physical distance results support the uniqueness theory notion that high similarity may have some aversive properties. The discrepancy between the physical distance and self-report results is discussed in terms of an implicit causal theory that subjects may have about interpersonal similarity (i.e., greater similarity is good).     

Some problems of Wilson's disease

The Leipzig Center for Wilson's Disease in the GDR is charged with the registration and diagnosis of all homozygous Wilson gene carriers, the clarification of all suspected cases, including the heterozygote test, and the co-ordination of long-term treatment. At present, there are 78 recorded Wilson gene carriers living. On the basis of our own comprehensive observations and investigations over prolonged periods of time, questions concerning pathogenesis, genetics, diagnosis and therapeutic measures, including their side-effects, are dealt with.     

Ontogeny of the Ponzo illusion: Effects of age,schooling, and environment(1)

Subjects were 384 Moroccan males (age range 6–22 yrs.), divided into 16 equal groups, according to the factorial design: age (4) × schooling (2) × environment (2). Subjects were tested on four Ponzo configurations (differing in contextual information) from Leibowitz et al. (1969), the Ponzo perspective stimulus from Segall et al. (1966), the CEFT from Witkin et al. (1971), and a measure of pictorial depth perception. Individual measures of contact with mass-media and urban life were collected on each subject. Analyses indicated that all main factors of age, schooling, and environment played important, and differing, roles in inducing illusion susceptibility. Piaget's (1969) theory of primary and secondary illusions was found useful in understanding the results of the Ponzo configurations used in the study. Primary illusion configurations were found to be relatively insensitive to experiential variables, and illusion susceptibility decreased with chronological age. In contrast, secondary illusion configurations were affected by many experiential factors, and illusion susceptibility was mediated through perceptual development and pictorial depth perception rather than chronological age. It was concluded that single-factor theories of ontogenetic change in illusion susceptibility were inadequate to explain the complex interactions found in this study.     

Children's strategies in producing three-dimensional relationships on a two-dimensional surface

It is a common task to give children a picture containing implicit depth cues and to require them to extract depth information from it. The cues are always selected from the adult repertoire; little is known about children's production of their own cues. In this experiment, 5- to 10-year-old children were required to draw one object behind another in a situation in which adults invariably produce the further object partially occluded by the nearer. The results were an age-related decline in the tendency to segregate the objects and an increase in the tendency to group the objects using partial occlusion, with a cross-over at 8 years. At all ages some children drew one object inside the boundary of the other. It is argued that the results are composed of two tendencies, a gradual mastery of discrete scaling phenomena (e.g., “up” on the page means “further”) within a given style, and a set of decisions to be made between incompatible styles.