Calibration of probability assessments by professional blackjack dealers, statistical experts, and lay people

The question addressed in this study is whether experts are better calibrated than lay people. We investigated how well people are calibrated when they assess the probabilities of card combinations in the game of blackjack. Three groups of subjects were used: professional dealers, statistical experts, and control subjects. The results showed that experience and statistical expertise do not make people better calibrated in this task. It is argued that the concept of calibration is not wholly appropriate to describe the obtained deviations from the normatively correct responses. This is illustrated by a discriminant analysis performed on the signed deviation scores, which resulted in an almost perfect separation of the three groups, although they were overlapping with respect to calibration.     

Philosophy of medicine in the Netherlands

This report explores the relationship between philosophy and medicine in the Netherlands. In Section 1 we outline the ups and downs of medico-philosophical research in our country: pre-war flourishing, post-war decline, and modern renaissance. In Section 2 we review recent Dutch literature in the philosophy of medicine. The topics dealt with include methodology of medical science, alternative medicine, the basic concepts of medicine, anthropological medicine, medicalization, medicine and culture, and health care ethics.     

A new computational method to fit the weighted euclidean distance model

This paper describes a computational method for weighted euclidean distance scaling which combines aspects of an analytic solution with an approach using loss functions. We justify this new method by giving a simplified treatment of the algebraic properties of a transformed version of the weighted distance model. The new algorithm is much faster than INDSCAL yet less arbitrary than other analytic procedures. The procedure, which we call SUMSCAL (subjectivemetricscaling), gives essentially the same solutions as INDSCAL for two moderate-size data sets tested.Comments by J. Douglas Carroll and J. B. Kruskal have been very helpful in preparing this paper.     

THE SKILL OF PICTORIAL PERCEPTION: AN INTERPRETATION OF CROSS-CULTURAL EVIDENCE*

A theoretical framework is proposed for understanding perceptual skills in their functional context. Pictorial perception is construed as a functionally specialised skill whose pervasive importance in modern education derives from the proliferation of pictorial materials in Western culture. Drawing on cross-cultural research, the major components of the skill are identified as (1) detection of appropriate contexts for its application, (2) selection of a limiting frame of reference, (3) use of conventional criteria of fidelity to recognise depicted items, (4) sensitivity to impoverished depth cues, (5) an expectation of finding in the picture most of the information necessary for its disambiguation, and (6) various assumptions about the range of cognitive inferences that may legitimately be made ‘beyond the information given’. Training studies are interpreted as suggesting that the skill can be enhanced through guided experience.