De Finetti's earliest works on the foundations of probability

Bruno de Finetti's earliest works on the foundations of probability are reviewed. These include the notion of exchangeability and the theory of random processes with independent increments. The latter theory relates to de Finetti's ideas for a probabilistic science more generally. Different aspects of his work are united by his foundational programme for a theory of subjective probabilities.This work would not have been possible in its present form without the generous help of Prof. Maria Carla Galavotti. For several years, she has unfailingly answered all my requests for papers difficult of access, and discussed the details of interpretation as well as the philosophy of probability in general. To her I express my gratitude for everything.     

Intuitive Perceptions of Decision-making Strategy: Naive Assessors' Concepts of Integrative Complexity

Although there are measurable differences in integrative complexity among solutions that individuals generate in dealing with problems, it is uncertain to what extent people comprehend, recognize, and have preferences among different levels of complexity. Integrative complexity is a function of differentiation (the perception of several attributes within, or perspectives about, a topic) and integration (combining the differentiated characteristics in an interactive or synthesizing solution). The current paper reports two experiments dealing with how university students perceive, interpret, and choose among solutions differing in complexity. Experiment 1 showed that subjects accurately rated the complexity of described solutions differing along the continuum, but that their assessment of their own responses differed from the results of expert scoring. Their self-estimated complexity was highly correlated with their preferences, and preferred complexity was reliably higher than either expert- or self-assessed complexity of subject-generated solutions. Subjects were able to hypothesize quite accurately about environmental and endogenous factors likely to affect complexity. Experiment 2 found that in response to problem scenarios, solutions selected as being potentially most effective were consistently more complex than solutions that participants considered themselves most likely to use. The idea of complexity seems to be intuitively recognizable and understandable by untrained subjects: They can and do distinguish among problem solutions (self-generated or presented) that vary on that dimension, and are able to assess accurately the effects of relevant variables. Such subjects also share the bias shown by experts in favour of the superiority of more complex approaches.     

Die Bindungstheorie und ihre Relevanz für die Psychotherapie

Zusammenfassung Die ursprünglich von John Bowlby entwickelte Bindungstheorie gewinnt zunehmend an Relevanz im Bereich der Psychotherapie(forschung). Diese übersicht beginnt mit einer Kl?rung der zentralen Begriffe und Annahmen dieser Theorie und fa?t einige Befunde zur Entwicklung und den Korrelaten von Bindung zusammen, die vornehmlich aus entwicklungspsychologischen Untersuchungen stammen. übertragen auf Erwachsene, bedürfen die Konzepte der Bindungstheorie einer Revision, die in dieser Arbeit skizziert wird. Schlie?lich werden auf dieser Basis einige heute übliche Methoden zur Erfassung von Bindungsstilen und Bindungsverhalten im Erwachsenenalter dargestellt, die bei Untersuchungen im klinischen Feld (Inhalt des 2. Teils der übersichtsarbeit) eine wichtige Rolle spielen.      

Controversies over integrity testing: Two viewpoints

In the August 1993 issue ofJournal of Applied Psychology, Deniz Ones, Vish Viswesvaran, and Frank Schmidt published a monograph on the validity of integrity tests as revealed by meta-analysis. They concluded that integrity tests have substantial and generalizable predictive validity for criteria of both overall job performance and counterproductive behaviors on the job (e.g., disciplinary problems, absenteeism, rule breaking, violence on the job, theft, etc.). During the Fall of 1992, the authors sent a preprint of this study to David Lykken of the University of Minnesota, stimulating the exchange of letters that is reproduced here. The doubts, concerns, and feelings about integrity tests expressed by Professor Lykken are likely to be shared by others. The responses by Professors Schmidt, Ones, and Viswesvaran attempt to show that these worries are unfounded.     

A new computational method to fit the weighted euclidean distance model

This paper describes a computational method for weighted euclidean distance scaling which combines aspects of an analytic solution with an approach using loss functions. We justify this new method by giving a simplified treatment of the algebraic properties of a transformed version of the weighted distance model. The new algorithm is much faster than INDSCAL yet less arbitrary than other analytic procedures. The procedure, which we call SUMSCAL (subjectivemetricscaling), gives essentially the same solutions as INDSCAL for two moderate-size data sets tested.Comments by J. Douglas Carroll and J. B. Kruskal have been very helpful in preparing this paper.     

The quantitative measure of pattern representation in images using orientation-specific color aftereffects

A quantitative method is developed for assessing the quality of pattern information in imagery, using the magnitude of color aftereffects as an objective index. Subjects were given instructions to project imagined bar patterns of particular width and orientation onto adapting color fields, in such a manner as to simulate standard conditions for establishing the McCollough effect. Our control procedures indicate that the resulting orientation-specific complementary color aftereffects cannot be attributed to the conditioning of particular directions of eye scanning movements to color processing during adaptation, or to other possible sources of experimental bias. Furthermore, subjects who rated themselves prior to the adaptation procedure as having relatively vivid imagery showed significantly larger aftereffects than those who reported having relatively low imagery. These results not only provide an important confirmation of our earlier finding that imagination can replace physical pattern information in the formation of basic color-feature associations in the human visual system, but also demonstrate that these aftereffects can provide a practical measure of the fidelity of pattern representation in visual images.