The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges

The average probability estimate of J > 1 judges is generally better than its components. Two studies test 3 predictions regarding averaging that follow from theorems based on a cognitive model of the judges and idealizations of the judgment situation. Prediction 1 is that the average of conditionally pairwise independent estimates will be highly diagnostic, and Prediction 2 is that the average of dependent estimates (differing only by independent error terms) may be well calibrated. Prediction 3 contrasts between- and within-subject averaging. Results demonstrate the predictions' robustness by showing the extent to which they hold as the information conditions depart from the ideal and as J increases. Practical consequences are that (a) substantial improvement can be obtained with as few as 2-6 judges and (b) the decision maker can estimate the nature of the expected improvement by considering the information conditions.     

Adaptive automation, trust, and self-confidence in fault management of time-critical tasks

An experiment on adaptive automation is described. Reliability of automated fault diagnosis, mode of fault management (manual vs. automated), and fault dynamics affect variables including root mean square error, avoidance of accidents and false shutdowns, subjective trust in the system, and operator self-confidence. Results are discussed in relation to levels of automation, models of trust and self-confidence, and theories of human-machine function allocation. Trust in automation but not self-confidence was strongly affected by automation reliability. Operators controlled a continuous process with difficulty only while performing fault management but could prevent unnecessary shutdowns. Final authority for decisions and action must be allocated to automation in time-critical situations.     

Angry adolescents who worry about becoming violent

In the present study, 31 of 89 adolescents responded affirmatively to the following statement: "Sometimes I get so angry that I worry I will become violent." These adolescents (the anger group) were compared with the nonanger group, and several differences were found. The anger group (1) reported less intimacy with parents, received less support from them, and was less close to siblings; (2) had more opposite-sex friends, dated more frequently, and more frequently had a boyfriend or girlfriend; (3) had a lower grade point average; (4) were more depressed; and (5) used marijuana more frequently. Results of a regression analysis revealed that depression and dating were the only significant predictors of anger, explaining 17% of the variance.     

Punishments adolescents find justified: an examination of altitudes toward delinquency

The purpose of this study was to examine adolescents' attitudes toward delinquency, specifically the degree to which they find norm violations acceptable in various circumstances. A total of 1,914 Dutch youths participated: 1,046 reported having committed no crimes in the past year, 578 reported having committed only nonviolent offenses, and 290 reported having committed both violent and nonviolent offenses. It was hypothesized that, in general, delinquents would prescribe less severe punishments for deviant behavior, irrespective of the circumstances. This hypothesis was rejected. It was found, however, that violent delinquents were significantly more tolerant of violent behavior as compared with nondelinquents, with one important exception: when injury was inflicted on someone they knew, they were as little inclined to excuse the perpetrator as were nondelinquents. Violent delinquents discriminated most strongly between friends and strangers as both victims and perpetrators.     

Thought recognition, locus of control, and adolescent well-being

This paper reviews the underlying assumptions and principles of a new psychological paradigm, Psychology of Mind/Health Realization (POM/HR). A core concept of POM/HR, thought recognition, is then compared with locus of control (LOC), a well-known psychological construct. Next, the relationship of LOC to self-reported happiness and satisfaction is examined from the perspective of POM/HR, using a sample of 1,872 at-risk adolescents from 17 nations. The findings support POM/HR predictions that (1) locus of control would account for a slight portion of the variance in adolescent happiness and satisfaction, (2) circumstances that are external in nature would account for additional variance in happiness and satisfaction, and (3) there would be little difference in self-reported happiness and satisfaction between adolescents self-reporting high and low internal LOC. Further, it was conjectured that the adolescents mistook superficial emotions, such as excitement and security, for genuine feelings of well-being. Finally, the implications for prevention and intervention efforts with at-risk adolescents are discussed.     

Fighting for children

Child abuse is a problem of national importance. Nationwide, billions of dollars are spent on the child welfare system, but child abuse rates remain high. At the federal level, new laws, such as the Child Abuse Prevention and Enforcement Act, the Foster Care Independence Act, and the Adoption and Safe Families Act, represent steps toward addressing the problem. However, increased efforts are needed to raise awareness of the problem of child abuse and to prevent it. Furthermore, more attention is needed to address the need for reform of the child welfare system and to involve the private sector in helping abused children.     

Health anxiety moderates the effects of distraction versus attention to pain

Little is known about the relationship between health anxiety and chronic pain. The present study explored whether individual differences in health anxiety would influence the response of chronic pain patients to physical therapy. Furthermore, the interaction of health anxiety with coping strategy usage (distraction versus attention) was studied. Participants were 81 chronic pain patients who were interviewed and completed measures of pain, anxiety and cognition following an active physiotherapy session in which they either: (1) attended to physical sensations; (2) distracted from physical sensations or (3) completed the session as usual. Health anxious, compared to non-health anxious, individuals worried more about their health and injury during the session and attended to and catastrophically misinterpreted sensations more frequently. A complex interaction between health anxiety and coping strategy emerged. Among health anxious patients, attention to sensations resulted in lower anxiety and pain than did distraction. It appears as though attention had a short-term anxiety reducing effect for health anxious patients. Among non-health anxious patients, attention resulted in greater worry about health than distraction. Clinical and theoretical implications are discussed.     

Effortful control in early childhood: continuity and change, antecedents, and implications for social development

The course, antecedents, and implications for social development of effortful control were examined in this comprehensive longitudinal study. Behavioral multitask batteries and parental ratings assessed effortful control at 22 and 33 months (N = 106). Effortful control functions encompassed delaying, slowing down motor activity, suppressing/initiating activity to signal, effortful attention, and lowering voice. Between 22 and 33 months, effortful control improved considerably, its coherence increased, it was stable, and it was higher for girls. Behavioral and parent-rated measures converged. Children's focused attention at 9 months, mothers' responsiveness at 22 months, and mothers' self-reported socialization level all predicted children's greater effortful control. Effortful control had implications for concurrent social development. Greater effortful control at 22 months was linked to more regulated anger, and at 33 months, to more regulated anger and joy and to stronger restraint.     

Evaluating gene x psychological risk factor effects in the pathogenesis of anxiety: a new model approach

The present study evaluated the singular and interactive effects of a functional polymorphism (variation) in the serotonin transporter (5-HTT) gene and a psychological trait (anxiety sensitivity [AS], i.e., fear of arousal symptoms) in predicting subjective and physiological responses to a 35% carbon dioxide (CO2) challenge in a community sample (N = 72). Genotypes were divided into 2 groups in accord with prior research. Findings were partially supportive of the hypothesized risk model. These indicated that the Group L genotype (homozygous for the 1 allele), compared with the Group S genotype (homozygous for the s allele plus heterozygous individuals), predicted greater fearful response to the biological challenge. There was also an AS x Genotype interaction predicting heart rate variability (HRV) in response to the CO2, suggesting that high AS plus Group L status predicts decreased HRV.