Cognitive Biases in Playing the Lottery: Estimating the Odds and Choosing the Numbers

Three experiments were conducted to examine the operation of the representativeness and anchoring and adjustment heuristics in lottery play. Subjects in Experiments 1 and 2 indicated their chances of winning a lottery with an objective probability of 1 in 10. Consistent with the anchoring and adjustment heuristic, subjects (in both experiments) perceived their chances of winning to be greater when the lottery was based on a single event than when it was based on a disjunctive event. Subjects in these two experiments also selected numbers to play in a pick-3 (Experiment 1) or pick-4 (Experiment 2) lottery. Consistent with the representativeness heuristic, subjects in Experiment 2 demonstrated a preference for numbers without repeating digits. This also occurred in Experiment 3 wherein the numbers actually played in the Indiana daily Pick-3 lottery were examined.     

Ratings of Orally Presented Verbal Expressions of Probability by a Heterogeneous Sample

Verbal expressions of probability are used in daily conversations, physician-physician and physician-patient communications, and questionnaire and interview responses. To assess the degree of agreement among English-speaking Australian adults in allocating numerical probabilities to these verbal expressions of probability, 966 interviewees provided estimates for 60 isolated expressions of probability and a sequence of seven items placed in a sequence. Means and median scores appeared to be consistent with common sense and with findings from other countries. Mirror-imaged terms were neither symmetrical nor equidistant, with the means and medians for the positive terms being closer to the mid-points of the scale than the means and medians of the negative terms. Items in a sequence of probability terms showed greater symmetry and less variability than isolated expressions. For most items, there was an unacceptably high level of within-subject and between-subject variability. Although subjects with higher levels of education and/ or mathematics education showed less variability, these factors accounted for very little of the variance. The greater variability in Australian results relative to those reported elsewhere was partly attributed to the use of interviews rather than questionnaires. There were no particular stems that yielded greater consistency. It was concluded that the use of these expressions leads to very imprecise communication.     

The representation and integration in memory of spatial and nonspatial information

A series of experiments investigated whether people could integrate nonspatial information about an object with their knowledge of the object's location in space. In Experiments 1 and 3, subjects learned the locations of cities on a fictitious road map; in Experiments 2, 4, and 5, subjects were already familiar with the locations of buildings on a campus. The subjects then learned facts about the cities on the maps or the buildings on the campus. The question of interest was whether or not these nonspatial facts would be integrated in memory with the spatial knowledge. After learning the facts, subjects were given a location-judgment test in which they had to decide whether an object was in one region of the space or another. Knowledge integration was assessed by comparing levels of performance in two conditions: (a) when a city or a building name was primed by a fact about a neighboring city or building, and (b) when a city or a building name was primed by a fact about a distant city or building. Results showed that responses in Condition a were faster or more accurate, or both faster and more accurate, than responses in Condition b. These results indicate that the spatial and nonspatial information were encoded in a common memory representation.     

Contributions of subjective-tone to tone-phoneme identification

We measured subjective-tone identification thresholds evoked by acoustically filtered complex tones and compared them to Mandarin-Chinese tone-phoneme identification thresholds previously measured under the same filtering conditions. Tone phonemes were identified at intensities below subjective-tone identification thresholds, suggesting subjective tone is not necessary for tone-phoneme identification. Lower subjective-tone thresholds evoked by resolved harmonics rather than unresolved harmonics were consistent with pattern recognition theories of pitch perception.The authors thank Donald Gans and Richard Klich for all their help.     

Prediction of early social and academic adjustment of children from the inner city

Investigated predictors of five measures of early school adjustment for an ethnically diverse cohort of 683 inner-city kindergartners and first graders. Data from 2 consecutive years were collected from teachers, school records, and children. A multiple-regression preduction model significantly explained children's competence behavior, problem behavior, reading achievement, mathematics achievement, and school absences. Prior adjustment and sociodemographic factors explained a majority of the variance in adjustment. Perceived quality of parent involvement was signifcantly related (in the expected direction) to all five outcomes. Exposure to life events was significantly associated in the expected direction with competence behavior, problem behavior, and school absences but not with reading and mathematics achievement. Together, parent involvement and life-event variables explained as much as 12% of the variance in adjustment independent of sociodemographic and prior adjustment factors. The role of family and school factors in the adjustment of children at risk is discussed [corrected].     

Parenting stress among families of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Prior research has shown that parenting stress levels can be quite high among families of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). This study investigated the degree to which such stress was related not only to the child's ADHD, but also to various other child, parent, and family-environment circumstances. Multimethod assessments were conducted on 104 clinic-referred children with ADHD. Data collected from these subjects were entered into hierarchical multiple-regression analyses, utilizing the Parenting Stress Index as the criterion. The results showed that child and parent characteristics accounted for a substantial portion of the variance in overall parenting stress. The child's oppositional-defiant behavior and maternal psychopathology were especially potent predictors. The severity of the child's ADHD, the child's health status, and maternal health status also emerged as significant predictors. These findings are discussed in terms of their impact upon the clinical management of children with ADHD.The authors are grateful to Mary Maher and Paula Nevins for their assistance in collecting and coding the data. The authors would also like to thank Dr. Kenneth Fletcher for his helpful comments regarding the statistical analyses.     

Computer-Assisted Careers Guidance Systems and Organisational Change

This article describes a study conducted to identify the range of potential influences that a computer-assisted careers guidance system (PROSPECT (HE)) had on the functioning of organisations (careers services in higher education). Data from six institutions indicated that use of PROSPECT (HE) was associated with important and varied change within the organisations. It appears that when a careers service seeks opportunities for change, CACG systems can be an important catalyst for change in two respects: by providing a focal point for achieving previously established goals; or, as a consequence of system use, by making staff aware of the potential for new organisational goals.     

A typology of personal and environmental sexual harassment: Research and policy implications for the 1990s

Most of the research conducted on sexual harassment over the last decade and a half has used categories that are neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. This has created problems for researchers: it is difficult to compare results from one study to another, harassment types that have scholarly and legal-policy relevance are omitted, and the ability of researchers to inform legal and policy decisions is diminished as a result of these problems. A comprehensive categorization of harassment types that addresses these methodological problems is presented. Specifically, 11 specific types of harassment—4 types of Verbal Requests, 3 Verbal Remarks, and 4 Nonverbal Displays—are presented with examples from research and legal literatures. Recommendations for reconceptualizing research definitions of harassment as well as for diversifying the methodological approaches to the topic are made.