On the study of statistical intuitions

The study of intuitions and errors in judgment under uncertainty is complicated by several factors: discrepancies between acceptance and application of normative rules; effects of content on the application of rules; Socratic hints that create intuitions while testing them; demand characteristics of within-subject experiments; subjects' interpretations of experimental messages according to standard conversational rules. The positive analysis of a judgmental error in terms of heuristics may be supplemented by a negative analysis, which seeks to explain why the correct rule is not intuitively compelling. A negative analysis of non-regressive prediction is outlined.     

Inferring Sublexical Correspondences from Sight Vocabulary: Evidence from 6- and 7-year-olds

We report an experiment designed to investigate 6-to-7-year-old children's ability to acquire knowledge of sublexical correspondences between print and sound from their reading experience. A computer database containing the printed word vocabulary of children taking part in the experiment was compiled and used to devise stimuli controlled for grapheme-phoneme correspondence (GPC) frequency and rime neighbourhood consistency according to the children's reading experience. Knowledge of GPC rules and rime units was compared by asking children to read aloud three types of nonword varying in regularity of GPC and consistency of rime pronunciation. Results supported the view that children can acquire knowledge of both GPC rules and rime units from their reading experience. GPC rule strength affects the likelihood of a GPC response; rime consistency affects the likelihood of a rime response.     

Short report: Is spatial information encoded automatically in memory?

A dual-task paradigm was used to test Hasher and Zacks' (1979) hypothesis that spatial memory is automatic. Subjects saw two sets of 16 words each, the words being presented singly in random corners of a monitor screen. They were asked to remember the words and the corner in which each word was shown. In addition, subjects were given a concurrent task to perform. This task was either “easy” (counting aloud by ones) or “difficult” (counting aloud by sevens). Attention was focused either on the memory task or on the counting task. Word recognition was better when subjects carried out the easier competing counting task and when subjects concentrated mainly upon remembering the words and their positions. Contingent spatial memory was unaffected by either manipulation, supporting the hypothesis that spatial memory is automatic.     

Using activity schedules to promote varied application use in children with autism

We evaluated the effects of an activity schedule embedded within an iPad on varied play across applications. After establishing a pattern of repetitive gameplay, we taught three children with autism to follow the activity schedule using physical guidance. All participants increased their varied play to four applications per session and demonstrated independent and accurate activity schedule usage. The activity schedule was removed, and responding decreased to baseline levels, demonstrating the activity schedule's control over varied responding. The activity schedule was reintroduced and participant responding maintained when engaging with novel applications.     

Parental Monitoring and Adolescent Risk Behaviors: The Moderating Role of Adolescent Internalizing Symptoms and Gender

Parental monitoring can reduce adolescents’ engagement in risky behaviors; however, adolescents’ internalizing symptoms may alter the effectiveness of parental monitoring. The current study examines independent and interactive effects of maternal and paternal monitoring, adolescent’s internalizing symptoms, and adolescent gender on sexual behaviors and substance use with data from 659 of the 15-year-olds enrolled in the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development. Results suggest girls who experienced less maternal monitoring and more internalizing symptoms—both independently and interactively—engaged in more risky sexual behaviors. Greater substance use was associated with less maternal and paternal monitoring for girls and boys, more internalizing symptoms for girls, and interactively with less maternal and paternal monitoring depending on girls’ levels of internalizing symptoms. The current study highlights the unique influences of mothers’ and fathers’ monitoring efforts on adolescent risky behavior based on the adolescent’s level of internalizing symptoms.     

Pascal’s Wager: a Reason to Hesitate

Philosophia - One version of Pascal’s Wager says we should commit to, or cultivate belief in, whatever religion we think is most likely to bring us eternal joy. I pose a reductio for this...