A Test of the Knew-It-All-Along Effect in the 1984 Presidential and Statewide Elections1

The knew-it-all-along effect is investigated by comparing pre- and post-election predictions of subjects concerning three electoral races in the November 1984 elections. The results revealed that when the outcomes of the predictions are known, subjects recall having assigned higher probabilities and percentages to the actual winners of each election, remember having more confidence in the accuracy of these percentages, and claim to have had more knowledge of the candidates than they had before the election. The results were consistent across all three elections and in both repeated-measures and between-pups designs, suggesting that the knew-it-all-along effect is a very robust one. Two underlying processes are hypothesized to account for these results: the availability heuristic and an increase in confidence explanation.     

Selective impairment of phonation: A case study

A 47-year-old right-handed man underwent craniotomy for clipping of an aneurism at the trifurcation of the left middle cerebral artery. Subsequently, he suffered a left hemisphere CVA after which his speech and language resembled that of Broca's aphasia with accompanying apraxia of speech. Medical, behavioral, and acoustical data amassed over a period of several months indicated numerous contraindications to traditional diagnoses of Broca's aphasia, apraxia of speech, and dysarthria. Ultimately, it was determined that the patient had a selective impairement of phonation or laryngeal apraxia. This was illustrated dramatically when he was taught to use an electrolarynx which allowed him to bypass his disrupted phonatory system. Speaking with the electrolarynx, the patient communicated normally. Any semblance of Broca's aphasia disappeared. Supralaryngeal articulation was normal; apraxia of speech behaviors were absent. This case report indicates that dissociation of oral and laryngeal gestures due to brain injury is possible. Mechanisms underlying such a dissociation for this case are reviewed. The possibility of discrete center lesions in the frontal motor association area causing different types of apraxia of speech is discussed.     

Referential communication abilities of learning-disabled, language-learning-disabled, and normal school-age children

Past research in referential communication has indicated normally developing children show developmental progression in ability to communicate a specific referent to a listener. In one paradigm subjects were given lists of word-pairs in which one member of each pair was designated as the referent. It was shown that communicating about referents found in word-pairs associated in some way was more difficult than communicating about referents in dissimilar word-pairs. The present study extended this methodology to learning-disabled children. Learning-disabled, language-learning-disabled, and normally achieving children were asked to communicate about 30 pictured referents on three different tasks. On Tasks 1 and 2 each subject was asked to give a clue for the referent that would distinguish it from the other picture. Stimuli for Task 1 were 30 pairs of pictures that were related in some way and the stimuli for Task 2 were 30 pairs of unrelated pictures. Task 3 required the subjects to evaluate the adequacy of the examiner's clues for Task 1 stimuli. The disabled subjects were matched to the normally achieving subjects on the basis of receptive vocabulary age. Few differences were noted among the groups' performances on these referential communication tasks. Implications include the importance of vocabulary and concept development to referential communication.     

The analytics of continuing conflict

Individuals, groups, or nations — if rational and self-interested — will be balancing on the margin between two alternative ways of generating income: (1) peaceful production and exchange, versus (2) appropriative efforts designed to seize resources previously controlled by others (or to defend against such invasions). Both production and appropriation, on the assumption here, are entirely normal lines of activity engaged in to the extent that doing so seems profitable.The general-equilibrium steady-state model involves a resource partition function, a social production function, a combat power function, and an income distribution equation. Solutions were obtained under thesymmetrical Cournot protocol and two alternativeasymmetrical assumptions: the familiar Stackelberg condition and a more novel hierarchical protocol called Threat-and-Promise. The analysis demonstrates that, in contrast with the harmonistic bias of orthodox economic theory, a general-equilibrium model can also encompass the hostile and destructive interactions that characterize real-world social relations.The efforts of men are utilized in two different ways: they are directed to the production or transformation of economic goods, or else to the appropriation of goods produced by others.Vilfredo ParetoI thank the Ford Foundation for assistance in supporting this research.     

Affect, personality, and social activity.

These studies examined relations between social activity and state and trait measures of Positive and Negative Affect. In Study 1 Ss completed scales relevant to 3-factor models of personality and a weekly mood and social activity questionnaire for 13 weeks. In Study 2 Ss completed measures of the 5-factor model of personality and a daily mood and social activity survey for 6-7 weeks. In within- and between-Ss analyses, socializing correlated significantly with state measures of Positive Affect and with trait measures of Extraversion/Positive Emotionality. These relations were relatively general across various types of positive affect and social events; however, specific types of social events also were differentially related to affect. In contrast, social activity had no consistent association with measures of Negative Affect or the other personality dimensions. The results support a temperamental view of Extraversion.