MODERATOR RESEARCH AND THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS1

The thesis of this paper is that many proposed moderators in personnel psychology are probably illusory, having been created solely by belief in the law of small numbers. Evidence is presented that race as a moderator of test validity is one such illusory moderator. In addition, a model for validity generalization is described which, in addition to eliminating the need for criterion-related validity studies under certain circumstances, strongly calls into question the idea that situations moderate test validity, i.e., the traditional doctrine of situational specificity of test validities. Calculations are presented which show that adequate statistical power in moderator research requires much larger sample sizes than have typically been employed. This requirement is illustrated empirically using validity data for the Army Classification Battery for 35 jobs and 21,000 individuals. These analyses show that (1) even when a moderator is generally assumed to be large, large samples are required to gauge its effect reliably and (2) large sample research may show that moderators that appear plausible and important a priori are nonexistent or trivial in magnitude. The practice of pooling across numerous small sample studies to obtain statistical power equivalent to that of large sample studies is recommended. In light of the evidence that many proposed moderators may not exist, the authors hypothesize that the true structure of underlying relationships in personnel psychology is considerably simpler than personnel psychologists have generally imagined it to be.     

THE VALIDITY and FAIRNESS OF EMPLOYMENT and EDUCATIONAL TESTS FOR HISPANIC AMERICANS: A REVIEW and ANALYSIS

This study examined the questions of whether employment and educational tests demonstrate either differential validity or test unfairness to Hispanic Americans relative to the majority group. Relevant data from 19 published and unpublished studies formed the basis of the review and analysis. Results for employment tests, based on a very large amount of data, indicated that differential validity occurs no more frequently than would be expected on the basis of chance plus the operation of various statistical artifacts. The frequencies of slope and intercept differences between Hispanic and majority regressions were also within the chance range. A similar pattern of results obtained for the more limited amount of data available on educational tests. Taken together, the results provide strong evidence that tests are neither differentially valid for, nor unfair to, Hispanics. These findings are consistent with the results of previous studies of test validity and fairness for blacks.     

With Onions and Tears: A Multidimensional Analysis of a Counter-Ritual

“Family rituals” and “family myths” are useful concepts for understanding some of the behavior of disturbed families and hence for planning therapeutic interventions. A case of a family of a schizophrenic patient is described in which a “counter-ritual” involving onion-peeling to induce tearing was invented. The intervention addressed the family's inappropriate laughter and denial of sadness and seemed to lead to therapeutic gains for the identified patient and the family. This counter-ritual, as an indirect affect-inducing experience, is analyzed from a variety of perspectives and a partial parallel is drawn to an Iranian cultural ritual. A suggestion is made that more light may be shed on the mechanisms and structures of myths and rituals in families by drawing on studies of myths and rituals in ethnography. “Counter-ritual” is offered as a general concept for a type of active family intervention that involves inventing and employing rituals antithetical to pathological ones engaged in by some families.     

Client,Treatment, and Therapist Variables Related To Outcome in Brief,Systems-Oriented Family Therapy

Client, therapist, and treatment characteristics were examined with respect to how much of the variance they could account for in a variety of outcome measures. Multiple regression analyses were used to examine relationships among each of the client, therapist, and treatment characteristics studied and the various outcome measures. For the 219 families that were treated with brief family therapy, only a relatively low amount of variance in any of the outcome measures could be accounted for. The amount of explained variance, however, varied considerably from one outcome measure to the other. When the more homogeneous groups of clients (single parents or adolescent identified patients) were considered, the amount of explained variance generally showed an increase. Different sets of client, therapist, and treatment variables accounted for the variance in these outcome measures across client groups, demonstrating both the complexities of the relationships and the relative independence of various outcome measures. New variables are suggested for future research.     

Challenging the Myths of Industrial Arts

The majority of the thousands of industrial arts majors that graduate each year in the nation take jobs in business and industry—not as teachers in schools and colleges as in the past. Many counselors are unaware of this and many other important facts about the field of industrial arts. This article provides insights to prepare job counselors as they counsel potential and established industrial arts majors and graduates.     

Counseling the Older Rural Worker: A Report

This project's goals were to sensitize job service counselors to the needs and employment problems of older rural job-seekers and to develop a model in-service program.