Professional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: The case of foreign exchange rates

Highly knowledgeable people often fail to achieve highly accurate judgments, a phenomenon sometimes called the “process-performance paradox.” The present research tested for this paradox in foreign exchange (FX) rate forecasting. Forty professional and 57 sophisticated amateur forecasters made one-day and one-week-ahead FX predictions in deterministic and probabilistic formats. Among the conclusions indicated by the results are: (a) professional accuracy usually surpasses amateur accuracy, although many amateurs outperform many professionals; (b) professionals appear to achieve high proficiency via heavy reliance on predictive information (unlike what has been observed before, e.g., for stock prices); (c) forecast format strongly affects judgment accuracy and processes; and (d) apparent overconfidence can transform itself into underconfidence depending on when and how forecasters must articulate their confidence.     

非正态分布测量数据对克隆巴赫信度α系数的影响

对“增大被试群体异质性,能提高测验信度”观点提出质疑。讨论非正态分布测量数据的偏度对克隆巴赫信度α系数的影响,以模拟方法验证Box—COX正态化变换对信度的高估现象,进而给出对克隆巴赫信度α系数估计的改进方法。     

特征关联的类别间面孔适应

研究通过系列实验探讨了面孔适应不仅仅发生在形状选择性上, 也能发生在任务相关的特征上有内在关联的两个不同类别的物体间。实验1以带有明显性别倾向的物品图片作为适应刺激, 让被试对男女之间morphing程度不同的图片面孔进行性别辨别, 考察了不同适应刺激呈现时间的类别间面孔适应。结果表明适应刺激呈现时间大于50 ms时均存在类别间面孔适应效应。实验2评估了“性别”这一特征以及适应刺激形式在类别间面孔适应中所起的作用, 结果发现带有性别倾向的物品图片、相应的物品名称和性别文字(“男性”、“女性”) 3种适应刺激类型均能产生类别间适应。实验3通过操纵适应刺激上的注意负荷(高负荷、低负荷和无负荷), 探究了注意对类别间面孔适应的影响。结果表明随着注意负荷的增加, 类别间面孔适应效应减小。3个实验报告了一个新异的类别间适应后效, 证明了适应也能发生于在任务相关特征上有内在关联的两个不同类别的物体间。     

ICU的核心内容及临床思维要点

危重症患者存在急性的、全身性的、动态发展的病理生理改变（临床综合征）。ICU主要任务是：准确地识别和有效地调整患者的这种病理生理学状态／过程,促使其稳定。对危重病患者病情分析判断的原则是：在综合分析的基础上,要动态观察各种指标的变化,包括对治疗的反应性;在整体晓念的指导下、要注意个体化的特殊性。诊疗原则是：抓住最主要的...     

ICU的核心内容及临床思维要点

危重症患者存在急性的、全身性的、动态发展的病理生理改变(临床综合征).ICU主要任务是:准确地识别和有效地调整患者的这种病理生理学状态/过程,促使其稳定.对危重病患者病情分析判断的原则是:在综合分析的基础上,要动态观察各种指标的变化,包括对治疗的反应性;在整体观念的指导下、要注意个体化的特殊性.诊疗原则是:抓住最主要的病理生理学状态、找到该患者的平衡点,保持相对的稳定状态;同时积极治疗原发病.     

诺贝尔医学奖获得者的求异思维探析

通过对诺贝尔医学奖获得者的考察,发现求异思维在生命科学探索中起着至关重要、不可忽视的作用.重点探讨诺贝尔医学奖获得者的发散求异思维和转换求异思维.发散求异思维体现为多向求解、多级发散、交叉发散和侧向发散,转换求异思维体现为转换思维视角、方向、依据和方式,对求异思维的应用提出几点思考.     

道德情绪在道德隐喻映射中的作用及其神经机制

道德隐喻的加工, 实质上是从始源域的身体感知觉经验映射到目标域, 表征抽象道德概念的过程。新近研究从认知神经科学角度揭示道德隐喻加工的神经机制, 进而探讨情绪因素在道德隐喻映射中的作用。道德隐喻映射机制是在具体道德情境中身体感知经验与情绪体验、认知加工相互作用的结果。未来研究应拓展道德隐喻映射的维度和方向, 在社会交互环境中丰富和完善研究范式, 提高生态效度和跨文化效度。     

The perception of waning signals: decruitment in loudness and perceived size

When a tone or broad-band noise sweeps smoothly from a moderate intensity to a low one, the loudness at the end of the sweep is far less than what would be predicted from its intensity. The accelerated reduction in loudness, which was first reported by Canévet (1986) and confirmed in several later reports, has been called loudness decruitment, and has been tentatively interpreted as the result of some form of adaptation. Since both simple and induced adaptation have distinctive temporal profiles, we undertook a series of studies in which we varied the duration of a tone whose intensity was continuously changing, to see whether the effect of duration on decruitment resembled the effects of duration on adaptation. We discovered that the magnitude of decruitment remained unaffected when the duration of the sweep was reduced far below the durations of 90 to 180 sec that have been used in previous studies. The same effect was observed for durations of around 20 sec, but it declined rapidly to a low level at the lowest duration of 1.0 sec. This temporal pattern is strikingly different from what has been reported for either simple or ipsilaterally induced adaptation, which suggests that neither form of adaptation can account for the entire effect. We also wanted to know whether an analogous phenomenon could exist for a sensory modality other than hearing. In the present study, observers were asked to judge the apparent size of a solid disk on a computer monitor, the disk increased or decreased continuously in area, or appeared as a series of separate areas, either in random order or in ordered progressions. We found that, as in the case of loudness, apparent size decreased more rapidly when the areas decreased continuously than would have been predicted from the actual areas themselves. We also found that some part of the accelerated shrinkage was due to a response bias in the observers' judgments that stemmed from knowledge that every value in a continuously changing series is predictably smaller (or larger, for a growing series). Whether the remaining part of the effect is a sensory phenomenon is an important issue for future research.     

Sport injuries: relations to sex, sport, injured body region

Relationships among hand preference, nonverbal intelligence, and the monocular shifts of binocular focal point were studied in 33 men and 12 women university mathematics students. Ocular dominance was assessed with the Miles test. The monocular shift of binocular focal point for each eye was assessed with a modified Miles test. Hand preference was assessed on the Edinburg Handedness Inventory. Nonverbal intelligence was assessed with Cattell's Culture Fair Intelligence Test. In a prior study, the percentage of left-eye preference had been reported to be greater for mathematics students than for nonmathematics students. In the present study there were positive correlations between hand preference and the sum of the monocular shifts of two eyes. In addition, there was a negative correlation between nonverbal intelligence and the sum of the monocular shifts of two eyes. As these resultssuggest that the sum of the monocular shifts of two eyes may be related to mathematical ability and nonverbal intelligence, further research with a larger sample including non-mathematics students is needed.     

北宋僧衣形制研究——以设计范式为视野

僧衣,是有着较为严格的制式规定的。纵观历代的佛教服饰,从形制到穿着方式均随着时代的发展而演变,这其中所蕴含的思想内涵,非常值得探讨。关于僧衣的研究大多集中在佛教造像的服饰,而缺少对现实中僧人服饰的研究。本文从现代设计的角度,结合图像学、文化史、艺术史来研究北宋这一时期僧衣的形制。北宋时期社会的包容性和对人本身的重视在僧衣上亦有特殊的体现,这其中所蕴含的设计思想对当下的服装设计也有一定的借鉴意义。