An availability bias in professional judgment

When branches of a fault tree are pruned, subjects do not fully transfer the probability of those branches to the ‘all other’ category. This underestimation of the catch-all probability has been interpreted as an ‘out of sight, out of mind’ form of the availability bias. The present work replicates this underestimation bias with professional managers. It then demonstrates the effectiveness of a corrective tactic, extending the tree by generating additional causes, and also reveals that more easily retrieved short-term causes dominate the generation process. These results do not differ across managers' culture, education or experience. After evaluating such alternative explanations as category redefinition, we conclude that availability is a major cause, though possibly not the sole cause, of the underestimation bias.     

Reversal of genetic homeostasis in laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster under long-term selection for geotaxis and estimates of gene correlates: evolution of behavior-genetic systems

Among Drosophila melanogaster, divergently selected for geotaxis intermittently over 600 generations (28 years), about 80,000 animals have been analyzed behavior-genetically. Each major chromosome pair from two lines was isogenized on an unselected isogenic background. Measurement of their behavioral effects revealed the relative magnitudes II greater than III greater than X for the negatively geotactic (high) line and X greater than III greater than II for the positively geotactic (low) line. When reversing selection for the now phenotypically stable high and low lines and then repeatedly relaxing the reversals, a new genetic homeostasis in the low line was indicated by the return of the reversed-line average scores towards the low extreme; that is, the low line has attained a stable equilibrium for positive geotaxis, an uncharacteristic behavior and an effect not seen before 1979. This change suggests the recent evolution of a new coadaptation among genes. Although not as conclusive, a similar genetic interpretation is suggested for the high line.     

A developmental-genetic analysis of aggressive behavior in mice (Mus musculus): III. Behavioral mediation by heightened reactivity or immobility?

This research was designed to investigate development and behavioral mediation in lines of ICR mice that have been selectively bred for aggressive behavior. General behavioral reactivity and behavioral immobility have been implicated as potential mediators by prior analyses of preattack interactions. To evaluate the separate roles of these dispositions, the emergence of attacks in genetically selected lines was tracked for 11 years by three levels of analysis: over successive generations, over development, and over dyadic interactions. Convergent outcomes were observed in all three levels with respect to two findings: (a) Robust line differences were obtained in attack behaviors, and (b) strong associations were found between line differences in attacks and line differences in behavioral immobility. Conversely, all three levels of analysis indicated a weak and inconsistent association between line differences in attacks and measures of social and nonsocial reactivity.     

Effect of the interintromission interval on lordotic response and attack latency in golden hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus)

After 12-15 ejaculatory series, each consisting of several short intromissions (2- to 3-s vaginal penetration) and an ejaculation, male golden hamsters adopt an altered copulatory pattern consisting of long intromissions (5- to 25-s penetration with intravaginal thrusting). Receptivity declines and the tendency for the female to attack the male increases at about the time of this shift in copulatory pattern. Because the mean interintromission interval (III) between short intromissions is about 8 s compared to 100 s between long intromissions, it is possible that females detect this difference and adjust their mating accordingly. When the III between short intromissions from a rested male was experimentally increased to 100 s by use of a halter and lead device, the duration of lordosis was significantly less than that displayed by females paired with control males (8-s III) and virtually the same as that displayed by females paired with males that produced only long intromissions. This suggests that the female uses the temporal patterning of intravaginal stimulation as one criterion for terminating mating with a particular male.     

Rodents' (Rattus, Mesocricetus, and Meriones) use of learned caloric information in diet selection

When given a choice between two mashes of equal caloric density but differing flavors, rats (Rattus norvegicus) show a robust preference for the flavor previously associated with a higher calorie food. This finding suggests that rats may identify food quality by sensory cues such as taste. Our initial attempt to show this effect in the golden Syrian hamster (Mesocricetus auratus) failed, apparently because of this species's tendency to store both high- and low-calorie mashes in their cheek pouches during conditioning trials. Initially we attempted to circumvent this seeming morphological constraint on learning by presenting low- and high-calorie mashes on alternate days. This procedure too failed to produce evidence of flavor-caloric learning, although this procedure produced robust learning in another rodent, the Mongolian gerbil (Meriones unguiculatus). Another method of preventing cheek pouching--concurrently presenting low- and high-calorie liquid diets--was more successful; then, hamsters showed clear evidence of flavor-caloric learning. Thus, although flavor-caloric learning is demonstrable in species of rodent besides the rat, the circumstances under which it occurs vary.     

Perceptual organization of acoustic stimuli by budgerigars (Melopsittacus undulatus): III. Contact calls

We trained budgerigars by operant conditioning to discriminate among a set of contact calls in a same-different task and analyzed response latencies from this task by using multidimensional-scaling (MDS) and cluster-analysis procedures. Humans listened to the same calls and indicated the similarity between pairs of calls by a direct rating procedure. An MDS program (sindscal) was used to arrange these complex acoustic stimuli in multidimensional space reflecting perceptual organization. Multiple regression techniques were used to identify the acoustic characteristics of contact calls that were correlated with the perceptual dimensions obtained from MDS. A number of spectral characteristics (e.g., peak frequency, rate of frequency modulation, and concentration of spectral energy) emerged as important for both budgerigars and humans, but the relative salience of these cues differed for the two species. Additional tests with two groups of budgerigars--cagemates and noncagemates--showed that experience with calls can change the salience of various acoustic characteristics used for perceptual organization and individual recognition.     

Retroactive interference in the retention of prose: A reconsideration and new evidence

The sensitivity of naturalistic prose material to retroactive interference (RI) was investigated in three experiments, with due consideration given to the conditions known to produce RI in non-prose material. In experiment 1, unrelated, related, and nearly identical (parapharase) prose passage conditions yielded a pattern of results very similar to those obtained with non-prose material, with only the related condition associated with significant amounts of RI. Based upon these results and a few simple assumptions, a classificatory scheme was developed within which predictions were made regarding RI in related prose material. Several such predictions were tested and confirmed in Experiments 2 and 3. It was concluded that the many previous failures to detect RI in the retention of prose may be attributed to factors other than any inherent insensitivity of the material itself, and that RI may be just as predictable in prose as it is non-prose material.     

Learning from lectures: The effect of varying the detail in lecture handouts on note-taking and recall

Previous research on the effect of lecture handouts on student learning indicates that students who are given skeletal handouts usually perform better in course examinations than students who take all their own notes. The present study investigates whether the amount of detail in the handout is a critical factor in this. A randomized groups experiment was conducted in the context of a course on dental surgery. Four lecture handout conditions (headings and full text; headings and key points; headings only; no supplementary materials) were compared on tests 2 days and 2 weeks after the lecture. The significant differences between conditions were: ‘headings only’ better than ‘headings and key points’ on the first test; ‘headings only’ better than ‘no supplementary materials’ on the second test; and ‘headings and full text’ better than ‘no supplementary materials’ on the second test. These results indicate that the amount of detail is a critical factor in handout effectiveness.     

Computerized Career Information and Guidance Systems: Caveat Emptor

Computerized career information and guidance systems, although now commonplace, have received little psychometric scrutiny. The authors argue for examining these systems in the same way in which paper and pencil instruments are assessed. Consideration is also given to issues related to programming, technical-service problems, and staffing.