Semiparametric Thurstonian Models for Recurrent Choices: A Bayesian Analysis

We develop semiparametric Bayesian Thurstonian models for analyzing repeated choice decisions involving multinomial, multivariate binary or multivariate ordinal data. Our modeling framework has multiple components that together yield considerable flexibility in modeling preference utilities, cross-sectional heterogeneity and parameter-driven dynamics. Each component of our model is specified semiparametrically using Dirichlet process (DP) priors. The utility (latent variable) component of our model allows the alternative-specific utility errors to semiparametrically deviate from a normal distribution. This generates a robust alternative to popular Thurstonian specifications that are based on underlying normally distributed latent variables. Our second component focuses on flexibly modeling cross-sectional heterogeneity. The semiparametric specification allows the heterogeneity distribution to mimic either a finite mixture distribution or a continuous distribution such as the normal, whichever is supported by the data. Thus, special features such as multimodality can be readily incorporated without the need to overtly search for the best heterogeneity specification across a series of models. Finally, we allow for parameter-driven dynamics using a semiparametric state-space approach. This specification adds to the literature on robust Kalman filters. The resulting framework is very general and integrates divergent strands of the literatures on flexible choice models, Bayesian nonparametrics and robust time series specifications. Given this generality, we show how several existing Thurstonian models can be obtained as special forms of our model. We describe Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for the inference of model parameters, report results from two simulation studies and apply the model to consumer choice data from a frequently purchased product category. The results from our simulations and application highlight the benefits of using our semiparametric approach.     

Rethinking the value of choice: a cultural perspective on intrinsic motivation

Conventional wisdom and decades of psychological research have linked the provision of choice to increased levels of intrinsic motivation, greater persistence, better performance, and higher satisfaction. This investigation examined the relevance and limitations of these findings for cultures in which individuals possess more interdependent models of the self. In 2 studies, personal choice generally enhanced motivation more for American independent selves than for Asian interdependent selves. In addition, Anglo American children showed less intrinsic motivation when choices were made for them by others than when they made their own choices, whether the others were authority figures or peers. In contrast, Asian American children proved most intrinsically motivated when choices were made for them by trusted authority figures or peers. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Appraising the unusual: Framing effects and moderators of uniqueness-seeking and social projection

In this paper, we examine people’s appraisals of unusual objects and their intuitions about whether others will like those objects. Prior work suggests uniqueness motives (e.g., Need for Uniqueness) affect appraisals, but the effect of these motives on projection of appraisals to others is unclear. Contrary to some prior work, we argue that uniqueness motives do not govern projection of appraisals but rather that individual differences in perceived similarity to a target group do. We also show that perceptions of uniqueness are partly constructed and susceptible to framing, holding all other object properties constant. In two studies, we confirm our predictions about the effects on uniqueness motives and perceived similarity on appraisals and social projection of those appraisals.     

Effectiveness of cognitive-behavioral therapy for adolescent depression: a benchmarking investigation

In this study, we examined the effectiveness of cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for adolescent depression. Outcomes of 80 youth treated with CBT in an outpatient depression specialty clinic, the Services for Teens at Risk Center (STAR), were compared to a "gold standard" CBT research benchmark. On average, youths treated with CBT in STAR experienced significantly slower symptom improvement than youths in the CBT benchmark. However, outcomes for STAR teens were more similar to the research benchmark when accounting for differences in referral source (clinical versus advertisement) between the datasets. Results support further efforts to test the effectiveness of CBT in clinically representative community practice settings and samples.     

Doing better but feeling worse. Looking for the "best" job undermines satisfaction

Expanding upon Simon's (1955) seminal theory, this investigation compared the choice-making strategies of maximizers and satisficers, finding that maximizing tendencies, although positively correlated with objectively better decision outcomes, are also associated with more negative subjective evaluations of these decision outcomes. Specifically, in the fall of their final year in school, students were administered a scale that measured maximizing tendencies and were then followed over the course of the year as they searched for jobs. Students with high maximizing tendencies secured jobs with 20% higher starting salaries than did students with low maximizing tendencies. However, maximizers were less satisfied than satisficers with the jobs they obtained, and experienced more negative affect throughout the job-search process. These effects were mediated by maximizers' greater reliance on external sources of information and their fixation on realized and unrealized options during the search and selection process.