Order effects in belief updating with consistent and inconsistent evidence

The current study tests for the presence of differential order effects in evaluation tasks with consistent and inconsistent evidence as predicted by the Hogarth and Einhorn (1992) belief-adjustment model. The results, based on both between-subjects and within-subjects experiments, demonstrate that there were significant recency effects with inconsistent evidence as predicted, larger recency effects when the inconsistent evidence was farther apart in subjective value as predicted, and significant recency effects even when subjects were given training designed to both help them understand the task as completely as possible and to be better able to assess the pieces of evidence. By including a within-subjects design, we were able to demonstrate that the difference in subjective value between two pieces of evidence is the primary factor influencing the magnitude of the recency effect, regardless of whether the evidence is consistent or inconsistent. This latter finding is unique and contrary to previous research and theory.     

Perceptions of maternal and paternal solicitude by birth children and adoptees: Relevance for maternal bonding theory

This study emanated from the long-standing question of whether a maternal bonding process similar to other mammalian species occurs in humans. The perceptions of adult adoptees and a matched sample of non-adoptees about their parents' behaviours towards them were compared on an original Parental Solicitude Scale. As hypothesized, birth children perceived their mothers as the more solicitous parent, but ratings of adoptive mothers showed a unilateral decline. Further, the differential ratings for birth and adoptive mothers occurred mostly for the factors labelled benignity vs abuse and tolerance vs control, rather than caretaking vs neglect, which was congruent to reported effects in prior studies of lack of mother-infant contact during the sensitive period for bonding. An alternative explanation of the data was also tested but not substantiated.     

Overt responding in computer-based training

This experiment compared the extent to which students learned facts included in computer-based-training frames that required an overt response to those that did not. Frames included two types of facts: Some facts had one word missing which had to be supplied by the student (active facts). Other facts had no missing words and required no overt response (passive facts). Each student completed four 14-fact modules in random order. Two of the modules contained frames with all active facts. Each frame in the other two modules contained one active and six passive facts. Paper pretests and posttests showed that students learned twice as many facts when all facts in the module were active than when only one in seven were active. The modules that included passive facts required one-fifth the time to complete than those with only active facts. Students learned more facts per minute of training in one of the two modules that included passive facts than in the two modules with only active facts.     

Spline smoothing with model-based penalties

Nonparametric regression techniques, which estimate functions directly from noisy data rather than relying on specific parametric models, now play a central role in statistical analysis. We can improve the efficiency and other aspects of a nonparametric curve estimate by using prior knowledge about general features of the curve in the smoothing process. Spline smoothing is extended in this paper to express this prior knowledge in the form of a linear differential operator that annihilates a specified parametric model for the data. Roughness in the fitted function is defined in terms of the integrated square of this operator applied to the fitted function. A fastO(n) algorithm is outlined for this smart smoothing process. Illustrations are provided of where this technique proves useful.     

Theory in Child Psychosocial Treatment Research: Have It or Had It? A Pragmatic Alternative

In the area of child psychosocial intervention research, substantial progress in addressing challenging methodological issues has been made. In this article we suggest that continued movement forward requires maintaining a balance between methodological and theoretical issues, and that it would be advantageous to begin to think about matching advances in methodological sophistication by similar advances in theoretical sophistication. The need to advance our understanding of theoretical issues is especially important in light of the challenges raised by postmodernism, particularly as these challenges relate to knowledge development. We discuss these challenges and describe how a pragmatic orientation may be a useful way to respond to them. We also describe how a pragmatic orientation has been useful in our work in developing, implementing and evaluating psychosocial interventions for children with phobic and anxiety disorders.     

Decision strategies and visual-field asymmetries in same-different judgments of word meaning

The accuracy with which observers judged whether two words belonged to the same semantic category was determined from a detection-theoretic analysis ofsame-different judgments. In Experiment 1, one word was presented centrally and the other word in either the left visual field (LVF) or the right visual field (RVF); in Experiment 2, both words were presented to either the LVF or the RVF. In order to obtain receiver-operating characteristics (ROCs) of performance, observers were asked to rate their confidence that the two words belonged to the same semantic category. Two models of the decision strategy were fitted to the obtained characteristics: a differencing model, in which the decision variable was the difference between the two observations; and an optimal model, in which each observation was judged in relation to a criterion. In both experiments, the optimal model provided a better fit than the differencing model to the obtained characteristics. Maximum-likelihood estimates of both the criterion-free parameter,d′, and the area under the operating characteristic,p(A), were greater for words presented in the RVF than for those presented in the LVF.     

Uncertainty in estimating distances from memory

Magnitude estimations involving spatial characteristics, such as distance, typically show a compressive function when estimates are made from memory. In particular, as the magnitude of a property grows larger and larger, estimates become more and more inaccurate, with increasing underestimates of the actual magnitude. Previous theories have attempted to explain this difference by supposing that magnitude estimation was accomplished through a reperceptual process, in which the errors of perception are magnified, or a transformation process, in which the memory trace undergoes a consistent alteration toward a more schematic form. The present experiments present evidence in support of an uncertainty hypothesis. When subjects are uncertain of the actual value of a distance, they are forced to guess on the basis of the mean distance they encountered, because they are unable to retrieve the information accurately. When they can retrieve the information, they are more certain and their estimates are more accurate. This hypothesis was also extended to integrative conditions in which the subjects were presented with the stimulus display in a piecemeal fashion. In these cases, distance estimates were derived by combining spatial representations. This method of presentation caused distance estimates to become less accurate.     

Comparing Risky Decision Making Under Conditions of Real and Hypothetical Consequences

In a series of three experiments, subjects made risky decisions under conditions of hypothetical or real consequences. Task variations across experiments included: (1) type of risk (monetary gambles or investments of time and effort), (2) within-subject and between-subjects manipulations of consequence condition, and (3) single or multiple decisions. The hypothesis of no difference between choices in real and hypothetical consequence conditions was retained in each experiment. Supplemental analyses ruled out various “artifactual” interpretations of the null results. Discussion focused on conditions in which researchers can and cannot infer decision makers’ actual risk preferences from their responses in laboratory tasks.