Supernatural religion and the problem of providence

There is a prima facie case of unfairness against God unless Self-revelation is given by the deity to all people. The possible replies that God's Self-revelation has always and everywhere been available to everyone through many religions; or that special knowledge of God is a matter of divine gratuity; or that more is expected of those who receive such enlightenment; or that it comes as a moral reward; are found to be wanting. Nevertheless, provided there remains an argument for selective divine Self-revelation in terms of spiritual readiness, the case against God remains unproven.     

A factor simplicity index

We propose an index for assessing the degree of factor simplicity in the context of principal components and exploratory factor analysis. The new index, which is called Loading Simplicity, is based on the idea that the communality of each variable should be related to few components, or factors, so that the loadings in each variable are either zero or as far from zero as possible. This index does not depend on the scale of the factors, and its maximum and minimum are only related to the degree of simplicity in the loading matrix. The aim of the index is to enable the degree of simplicity in loading matrices to be compared.The author would like to thank the review team for their insights and recommendations. This work was supported by a grant SEC2001-3821-C05-C02 from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology.     

Model comparison of nonlinear structural equation models with fixed covariates

Recently, it has been recognized that the commonly used linear structural equation model is inadequate to deal with some complicated substantive theory. A new nonlinear structural equation model with fixed covariates is proposed in this article. A procedure, which utilizes the powerful path sampling for computing the Bayes factor, is developed for model comparison. In the implementation, the required random observations are simulated via a hybrid algorithm that combines the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. It is shown that the proposed procedure is efficient and flexible; and it produces Bayesian estimates of the parameters, latent variables, and their highest posterior density intervals as by-products. Empirical performances of the proposed procedure such as sensitivity to prior inputs are illustrated by a simulation study and a real example.This research is fully supported by a grant from the Research Grant Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. CUHK 4346/01H). The authors are thankful to the Editor, the Associate Editor, and anonymous reviewers for valuable comments which improve the paper significantly, and grateful to ICPSR and the relevant funding agency for allowing use of the data in the example. The assistance of Michael K.H. Leung and Esther L.S. Tam is gratefully acknowledged.     

Shackling the shoulders of giants

This paper informally summarizes a two-day symposium held at the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in Washington, D.C., September 5–6, 2002. The issue was to what extent the progress of science and societal capacity for continued technological innovation are threatened by excessive protection of intellectual property. Excessive protection creates disadvantages not only for scientists and inventors but also for educators/students and for librarians/clientele. Speakers from a variety of disciplines and institutions agreed unanimously that scientific and technological progress is, indeed, under serious threat. Various opinions were expressed about the degree of threat, currently and prospectively, as well as what counter-measures are best suited to resist undue restrictions on creative uses of scientific and technical data and information. This summary is based entirely on the author’s notes from the symposium, and the commentary offered is his alone. My apologies to the speakers if this paper does not accurately reflect the primary intent of their presentations. The “Suggested Readings” offered at the end are not specific to the speakers’ statements but rather are offered as a general resource to aid further research. The definitive record of the symposium is planned to be available from the National Academies Press as a Proceedings publication in the summer of 2003. John Gardenier is an independent researcher, ethicist and science writer.     

The role of temporal unpredictability for process interference and code overlap in perception-action dual tasks

Two experiments explore interference in dual tasks. The first task required perceptual judgment of the movement direction (left vs right) of a briefly presented stimulus; the second task was a tone-discrimination reaction-time (RT) task. Participants reported their judgment at leisure. In 50% of the trials they were told to ignore the stimulus (no report). The directions of stimulus movement and response in the RT task could either be the same or different, establishing cross-task compatibility (CTC) relations. We varied the degree of temporal unpredictability by using two stimulus-onset asynchronies (SOA, 100 ms vs 1200 ms) for the task stimuli. In Experiment 1, SOA was varied randomly within blocks of trials in one group and between blocks in another group. In Experiment 2, only the short SOA was used in one group and only the long SOA in another group. In both experiments, we observed substantially longer RTs with the short compared with the long SOA, regardless of whether there was temporal certainty (blocked or constant SOA) or uncertainty (random SOA) about stimulus onset. We assume that the process of encoding into short-term memory in one task interferes with concurrent retrieval processes (i.e., response selection) in the other task. This process interference effect was strongly reduced in no-report trials. Furthermore, we found shorter RT in compatible than in incompatible trials. This CTC effect diminished with long SOA but occurred even in no-report trials, implying that it refers to an automatically activated and then decaying code that primes response selection in the RT task.     

Task-set reconfiguration with predictable and unpredictable task switches

Participants switched frequently between high/low and odd/even classification of a digit. The interval between a task cue and the next digit varied between blocks. In Experiment 1, the task switched predictably every two, four, or eight trials. In Experiment 2, switching predictably every four trials was compared with random switching. With predictable switching, the cost was limited to the first trial of a run. Random switching produced a more gradual approach to asymptotic performance. After one performance, control processes attenuate the resulting change in task-set bias if a further switch is likely, but this strategic modulation is soon overwhelmed by task-set priming through further performances. Preparation reduced switch costs but not interference from the irrelevant attribute: Control of interference appears to be reactive, not proactive. Switch costs did not increase with run length, suggesting that retrieval of the task set last associated with the stimulus did not contribute to switch costs.     

Remembering chosen and assigned options

Recent studies have shown systematic choice-supportive memory for past choices, wherein people tend to overattribute positive features to options they chose and negative features to unchosen options (Mather & Johnson, 2000, Mather, Shafir, & Johnson, 2000). In contrast, the present experiments showed no choice-supportive memory bias for assigned options. Rather than having a general motivation to recall the chosen or the assigned option in a more positive light, people appear to be influenced by heuristics that vary with context: In recalling past choices, people expect the chosen option to contain more positive and fewer negative features than do its competitors. In recalling past assignments, in contrast, people expect the assigned option to be remembered better than the unassigned alternatives. This vividness heuristic leads to systematic misattribution of new features to unassigned alternatives, but not in a manner supportive of the assigned option. Some implications of these findings are discussed.     

The facilitative influence of phonological similarity and neighborhood frequency in speech production in younger and older adults

A tip-of-the-tongue (TOT) elicitation task and a picture-naming task were used to examine the role of neighborhood frequency as well as word frequency and neighborhood density in speech production. As predicted for the younger adults in Experiment 1, more TOT states were elicited for words with low word frequency and with sparse neighborhoods. Contrary to predictions, neighborhood frequency did not significantly influence retrieval of the target word. For the older adults in Experiment 2, however, more TOT states were elicited for words with low neighborhood frequency. Furthermore, in Experiment 3, pictures with high neighborhood frequency were named more quickly and accurately than pictures with low neighborhood frequency. These results show that the number of neighbors and the frequency of those neighbors influence lexical retrieval in speech production. The facilitative nature of these factors is more parsimoniously accounted for by an interactive model rather than by a strictly feedforward model of speech production.     

Transferring voice effects in recognition memory from remembering to knowing

In five experiments, we investigated the effects of voice congruency (same vs. different voices at study and at test) on remembering and knowing in recognition memory. With low- and medium-frequency three- or four-syllable words, a voice congruency effect occurred only in remembering. With nonwords, voice congruency effects occurred both in remembering and in knowing. With nonwords and divided attention at study, the voice congruency effect transferred almost completely from remembering to knowing. By showing a transfer of effects from remembering to knowing as encoding became more impoverished, these findings support a distinctiveness/fluency account of remembering and knowing as well as the theory that remembering and knowing indicate retrieval of events from episodic and semantic memory systems, respectively.     

Using the Observer to analyze learning in virtual worlds

In this study, we describe and analyze the ways in which high school students explored a virtual solar system (VSS). VSS is a nonimmersive virtual environment that affords visual manipulations of space by altering its frame of reference. The Observer software was used to code and analyze the participants’ real-time free-exploration task. Two basic behaviors were identified across participants: establishing several home bases, and shifting between a still mode and a dynamic mode. Moreover, three overall exploration patterns emerged: thebutterfly pattern represents a superficial mode of learning; thebee pattern represents an in-depth mode of studying the various celestial objects; and theeagle pattern represents a global approach of studying the complex system. This virtual reality environment promises to provide a setting in which to further study consistent patterns and individual differences in exploration strategies.