A case study of expert judgment: Economists' probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts

In this case study of economists' forecasts concerning economic downturn, we examine key issues concerning the psychology of prediction and the controversy surrounding the value of expertise in forecasting. We examine when experts' knowledge promotes forecast accuracy and whether biases found in psychological studies (including underutilization of relevant base rates and tendencies to extreme prediction) occur in these economic forecasts. Experts' forecasts were compared to forecasts derived from base-rate models that relied on the historical frequencies of economic downturns. The performance patterns of the experts and models crossed over the forecast horizon. Experts outperformed models in shorter-term forecasting, whereas models outperformed experts in longer-term forecasting. These results highlight the abilities and limits of experts and models in prediction and the sources of their inaccuracy.     

The Maximization Paradox: The costs of seeking alternatives

Contrary to the common belief that more options lead to better decisions, recent research has demonstrated that choosing from a large number of options can have detrimental psychological effects. We investigated whether people were willing to sacrifice resources for more options, and whether choice-making orientation moderated such willingness. As predicted, people who were motivated to make the best choice possible—“maximizers”—were more willing to sacrifice resources such as time to attain a larger choice array than were people who tend to search for a satisfactory choice (i.e., “satisficers”). Additionally, maximizers who sacrificed to attain more options were ultimately less satisfied with their choice relative to maximizers who chose from a small assortment, and to satisficers (Studies 2 and 3). We term the pattern in which maximizers tend to sacrifice resources to attain more options that ultimately reduce their satisfaction, the “Maximization Paradox”.     

Inferring accuracy for judges and items: Choice of unit of analysis reverses the conclusions

This study explores the relationship between the precision and the accuracy of forecasts using either judge or item as the unit of analysis. Participants in five experiments answered general-knowledge questions by indicating intervals that were likely to include the correct answer. Results indicate that the precision of an interval estimate is not a straightforward cue to the likelihood that such an interval includes the truth (hit rate). Whereas judges who state more precise estimates (i.e. who provide narrower interval estimates) have lower hit rates, questions for which the average judgment is more precise have higher hit rates. Thus, the relation between precision and accuracy depends on whether one ‘slices’ the data by judge or by question. We offer an explanation for this seemingly paradoxical effect and implement it as a computer simulation to demonstrate its validity. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precision and accuracy of judgmental estimation

Whereas probabilistic calibration has been a central normative concept of accuracy in previous research on interval estimates, we suggest here that normative approaches for the evaluation of judgmental estimates should consider the communicative interaction between the individuals who produce the judgments and those who receive or use them for making decisions. We analyze precision and error in judgment and consider the role of the accuracy–informativeness trade-off (Yaniv and Foster, 1995) in the communication of estimates. The results shed light on puzzling findings reported earlier in the literature concerning the calibration of subjective confidence intervals. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Noninvolvement of testosterone in aggressive defense behavior in the male blind mole rat Spalax ehrenbergi

Blind mole rats (Spalax ehrenbergi) are solitary and aggressive subterranean rodents. Aggressive defense behavior in the mole rat functions to deter neighboring competitors from territory, food, and mates and includes seismic and odor signals. The aim of the present study was to determine whether the aggressive defense behavior displayed by male mole rats is testosterone dependent. Five behavioral variables were taken as being representative of such aggressive interaction: exposing teeth, biting, bulldozing movements of the head, soil blocking, and self‐grooming. We monitored male testosterone levels and aggressiveness throughout the annual cycle, which can be divided into three main climatic periods: cold and rainy (September–February); warm, during which the soil is still moist and easily excavated (March–May); and hot (June–August), when the soil is hard and dry. In a second experiment the effect of endogenous and exogenous testosterone on male aggressive defense behavior was determined before and after castration and following testosterone propionate replacement. We found fluctuations in male testosterone concentrations, with three peaks: in November, May, and August, one in each of the three climatic periods. However, these fluctuations did not correlate with male aggressive behavior, which remained constant throughout the year. Furthermore, because neither castration nor testosterone propionate replacement in castrated individuals affected their defense behavior, we suggest that such behavior in male mole rats is testosterone independent. The continuous excavation and maintenance of the mole rat’s underground tunnel system demands high energy expenditure year‐round and constant defense of territory sites and food caches from intraspecific rivals. Thus, although testosterone may fluctuate as a result of seasonal breeding cycles, constant high levels of aggressive defense throughout the year are crucial for the survival of the male mole rat in its solitary subterranean environment. Aggr. Behav. 27:64–72, 2001. © 2001 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Follow-up of victims of one terrorist attack in Israel: ASD, PTSD and the perceived threat of Iraqi missile attacks

The first aim of the study was to examine the relationships between acute stress reactions and post-traumatic reactions following exposure to a terrorist attack. The second was to examine whether exposure to a terrorist attack increases the perceived threat and fear of renewed Iraqi missile attacks. Data were collected at two points in time: during the first month after the exposure to a terrorist attack (N = 54), and four months later (N = 44). Twenty-four percent of the exposed group had acute stress disorder (ASD), and a similar percentage had PTSD. Among participants who had ASD, the chances of developing PTSD were three times greater than among those who had never experienced ASD. Among participants who had been exposed to a terrorist attack and developed PTSD, the perceived threat of an Iraqi missile attack was greater than among those who had been exposed to a terrorist attack but did not develop PTSD, or among the participants in the control group. The discussion deals with the findings in light of the current controversy regarding ASD and the current situation in Israel.     

The Production of Self and the Destruction of the Other's Memory and Identity in Israeli/Palestinian Education on the Holocaust/Nakbah

This paper characterizes a present institutionalizedunwillingness of both the Israeli and Palestinian educationalsystems to acknowledge each other's suffering because of the presenceof what the author terms `the otherness of the other.' This isdone largely through hegemonic control of memory of genocidesendured by both and through limiting constructions of the self.Coming to terms with `each other' paves the way for ahumanistic-oriented counter-education, one based in mutualacknowledgment and open dialogue.     

American Military Veteran Entrepreneurs: A Comprehensive Profile of Demographic,Service History,and Psychosocial Characteristics

American military veterans are nearly twice as likely to be self-employed compared with nonveterans and are majority owners in 9% of all businesses nationwide. Despite their contribution to the broader economy and the potential for training programs to cultivate and foster successful self-employment and veteran-lead entrepreneurial ventures, research on veteran entrepreneurs remains limited. To gain a better understanding of the potential strengths and vulnerabilities of veteran entrepreneurs, the current study utilized data from a large, nationally representative sample to profile self-employed veterans (n = 230) and compare them with veterans who work as employees (n = 1,055) with respect to demographic, military service history, and psychosocial characteristics. Results indicated that self-employed veterans were older and more educated and more likely to utilize U.S. Department of Veteran’s Affairs (VA) health care. Self-employed veterans were more likely to serve in Vietnam and to serve in the military for fewer years. No differences were noted in perceived military experience, level of combat exposure, or military branch served as a function of self-employment. Although reporting more lifetime traumas, self-employed veterans did not experience higher rates of current or lifetime psychopathology or lower perceived quality of life. Potential protective resilience-promoting factors may be associated with the higher levels of openness, extraversion, optimism, achievement-orientation (purpose in life), and greater need for autonomy and professional development observed among self-employed veterans. Moreover, self-employed veterans demonstrated higher levels of gratitude, community integration, and altruistic service to others. Findings have potential to inform human resources management strategies and vocational training and reintegration initiatives for veterans.     

Crossover of job demands and emotional exhaustion within teams: a longitudinal multilevel study

This study investigated the crossover of job demands and emotional exhaustion among team members and the moderating effect of cohesiveness and social support on this process. Participants were 310 employees of an employment agency in the Netherlands, working in one of 100 teams. Multilevel analysis using a longitudinal design did not reveal a main effect of crossover. However, consistent with the study's hypotheses, the results showed a moderating effect of team cohesiveness and social support. We detected crossover of job demands and emotional exhaustion across time from the group to individual team members only in teams characterized by high levels of cohesiveness and social support. Teams characterized by low levels of cohesiveness and social support showed no crossover of job demands and exhaustion. The findings demonstrate that team-level moderators play an important role in crossover processes. Moreover, social support and cohesiveness may not always be positive.