An evaluation of multi‐criteria methods in integrated assessment of climate policy

Those who conduct integrated assessments (IAs) are aware of the need to explicitly consider multiple criteria and uncertainties when evaluating policies for preventing global warming. MCDM methods are potentially useful for understanding tradeoffs and evaluating risks associated with climate policy alternatives. A difficulty facing potential MCDM users is the wide range of different techniques that have been proposed, each with distinct advantages. Methods differ in terms of validity, ease of use, and appropriateness to the problem. Alternative methods also can yield strikingly different rankings of alternatives. A workshop was held in which climate change experts and policy makers evaluated the usefulness of MCDM for IA. Participants applied several methods in the context of a hypothetical greenhouse gas policy decision. Methods compared include value and utility functions, goal programming, ELECTRE, fuzzy sets, stochastic dominance, min max regret, and several weight selection methods. Ranges, rather than point estimates, were provided for some questions to incorporate imprecision regarding weights. Additionally, several visualization methods for both deterministic and uncertain cases were used and evaluated. Analysis of method results and participant feedback through questionnaires and discussion provide the basis for conclusions regarding the use of MCDM methods for climate change policy and IA analyses. Hypotheses are examined concerning predictive and convergent validity of methods, existence of splitting bias among experts, perceived ability of methods to aid decision‐making, and whether expressing imprecision can change ranking results. Because participants gained from viewing a problem from several perspectives and results from different methods often significantly differed, it appears worthwhile to apply several MCDM methods to increase user confidence and insight. The participants themselves recommended such multimethod approaches for policymaking. Yet they preferred the freedom of unaided decision‐making most of all, challenging the MCDM community to create transparent methods that permit maximum user control. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Alexithymia and its measurement: confirmatory factor analyses of the 20‐item Toronto Alexithymia Scale and the Bermond–Vorst Alexithymia Questionnaire

Alexithymia refers to the difficulties an individual has in experiencing and expressing feelings. The 20‐item Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS‐20) and the Bermond–Vorst Alexithymia Questionnaire (BVAQ) with two parallel versions of 20 items have been constructed to measure it. The present study compared the psychometric properties of these two self‐report questionnaires in English (N=290) and French (N=322) language versions. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to examine the fit between the hypothesized factors and the data. Results revealed a better fit to the data for the second version of the BVAQ (BVAQ‐20B) for both language versions as compared to the TAS‐20, the whole BVAQ, or the first version of the BVAQ (BVAQ‐20A). Additionally, the factor comparison of both language versions indicated that only the factorial structure of the BVAQ‐20B was replicable across languages. Concurrent validity of the questionnaires is discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Remembering more than meets the eye: A study of memory confusions about incomplete visual information

The purpose of this series of four experiments was to examine the possible role of spontaneous imagery in memory confusions about the way in which visual information had been experienced. After viewing pictures of familiar objects, complete or incomplete in visual form, participants were asked to remember the way in which the objects had been presented. Although, as predicted, memory for the objects themselves was quite good, participants falsely remembered seeing complete versions of pictures that were actually presented as incomplete. These false reports were observed across a variety of encoding and testing conditions. The results suggest that the false reports (referred to here as completion errors) are due to internal representations based on filling-in processes in response to the encoding of incomplete visual information. As such, the results also speak to alternative explanations for the completion errors and, more broadly, to theoretical perspectives that draw on filling-in processes when accounting for object identification and object memory.     

Family therapy with problem drinkers and drug takers: A pilot follow-up study

We report a retrospective outcome study of 36 problem drinkers and/or drug takers, treated with structural-strategic family therapy. The interval between treatment and follow-up varied from six months to two years. Follow-up data was available on 34 cases. Twenty had a pure alcohol problem and of these 18 had a good outcome at follow up. Five had a mixed drug/alcohol problem; of these all were free from problem drinking and four had become abstinent from drugs at follow-up. Of the nine patients with a pure drug problems, eight were abstinent from drugs at follow-up. Given the retrospective nature of this study and the lack of control data, these results must remain impressionistic but the implications of the findings are discussed.     

The profile of abstract rule learning in infancy: Meta‐analytic and experimental evidence

Everyone agrees that infants possess general mechanisms for learning about the world, but the existence and operation of more specialized mechanisms is controversial. One mechanism—rule learning—has been proposed as potentially specific to speech, based on findings that 7‐month‐olds can learn abstract repetition rules from spoken syllables (e.g. ABB patterns: wo‐fe‐fe, ga‐tu‐tu…) but not from closely matched stimuli, such as tones. Subsequent work has shown that learning of abstract patterns is not simply specific to speech. However, we still lack a parsimonious explanation to tie together the diverse, messy, and occasionally contradictory findings in that literature. We took two routes to creating a new profile of rule learning: meta‐analysis of 20 prior reports on infants’ learning of abstract repetition rules (including 1,318 infants in 63 experiments total), and an experiment on learning of such rules from a natural, non‐speech communicative signal. These complementary approaches revealed that infants were most likely to learn abstract patterns from meaningful stimuli. We argue that the ability to detect and generalize simple patterns supports learning across domains in infancy but chiefly when the signal is meaningfully relevant to infants’ experience with sounds, objects, language, and people.     

Living on a Slippery Slope

Our actions, individually and collectively, inevitably affect others, ourselves, and our institutions. They shape the people we become and the kind of world we inhabit. Sometimes those consequences are positive, a giant leap for moral humankind. Other times they are morally regressive. This propensity of current actions to shape the future is morally important. But slippery slope arguments are a poor way to capture it. That is not to say we can never develop cogent slippery slope arguments. Nonetheless, given their most common usage, it would be prudent to avoid them in moral and political debate. They are often fallacious and have often been used for ill. They are normally used to defend the moral status quo. Even when they are cogent, we can always find an alternate way to capture their insights. Finally, by accepting that the moral roads on which we travel are slippery, we become better able to successfully navigate them.     

Aversive racism in Britain: the use of inadmissible evidence in legal decisions

The aversive racism framework (S. L. Gaertner & J. F. Dovidio, 1986 ) suggests that bias against Blacks is most likely to be expressed by Whites when it can be explained or justified along non‐racial grounds. The present experiment adopted a 2 (Evidence: admissible vs. inadmissible) × 2 (Defendant Race: White vs. Black) between subjects design, asking White participants, whose self‐reported prejudice was assessed, to judge a legal case. As predicted, increased guilt ratings and longer sentencing recommendations were forwarded for the Black (vs. White) defendant only when DNA evidence linking the defendant to the crime had previously been ruled inadmissible. This result was not qualified by self‐report racial attitudes. The implications for evidence inadmissibility in interracial contexts are considered, along with the repercussions of finding experimental evidence of aversive racism outside of North America. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.