A cross-cultural study of hindsight bias and conditional probabilistic reasoning

Hindsight bias is a mistaken belief that one could have predicted a given outcome once the outcome is known. Choi and Nisbett (2000 Choi, I. and Nisbett, R. E. 2000. Cultural psychology of surprise: Holistic theories and recognition of contradiction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79: 890–905. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) reported that Koreans showed stronger hindsight bias than Americans, and explained the results using the distinction between analytic cognition (Westerners) and holistic cognition (Easterners). The purpose of the present study was to see whether hindsight bias is stronger among Easterners than among Westerners using a probability judgement task, and to test an “explicit–implicit” hypothesis and a “rule-dialectics” hypothesis. We predicted that the implicit process is more active among Easterners to generate hindsight bias, and that Easterners are more dialectical thinkers, whereas Westerners are more rule-based thinkers. French, British, Japanese, and Korean participants were asked to make probabilistic judgements in a Good Samaritan scenario (Experiment 1) and in a scenario including conditional probabilistic judgement (Experiment 2). In both Experiments, we presume that the implicit revision of causal models is made just by being given unexpected outcome information, and that explicit revision is made by being asked to point out possible factors for an unexpected outcome. In the results Easterners showed greater hindsight bias generally and it was greater in the Good Samaritan scenario. We conclude that the reason why hindsight bias was lower among Westerners is primarily that they tried to follow a rule to suppress the bias.     

Let's Make a Deal: Quality and availability of second-stage information as a catalyst for change

The Monty Hall Problem (MHP), a process of two-stage decision making, was presented in atypical form via a custom software game. Differing from the normal three-box MHP, the game added one additional box on-screen for each game—culminating on game 23 with 25 on-screen boxes to initially choose from. A total of 108 participants played 23 games (trials) in one of four conditions; (1) “Vanish” condition—all non-winning boxes totally removed from the screen; (2) “Empty” condition—all non-winning boxes remain on-screen, but with an “empty” label on them; (3) “Steroids” condition—all non-winning boxes removed from the screen, with initially chosen box becoming 25% larger; (4) “Steroids2” condition—all non-winning boxes removed from the screen, box not currently chosen becomes 25% larger. Results indicate second-stage on-screen presence of boxes influences switching; with their absence having the opposite effect. Size manipulation appears to elicit demand characteristics resulting in indeterminate influence.     

Empirically based psychology of Islam: summary and critique of the literature

In this paper, we systematically review the growing empirically based psychology of Islam. We arrive at 10 conclusions: (l) Islam is a multidimensional religion; Islam might mean different things to different people, and some people might adhere to some of its elements but not to others; (2) Islam is similar to, but is different from, other religions; (3) Islam's role in the lives of Muslims seems mostly positive; (4) Some types of Islamic religiousness are negative; (5) The empirical findings have not been translated yet into clinical applications; (6) Most of studies conducted among Muslims provide only a birds-eye view of Islam; (7) Empirical studies of Muslims are scarce; (8) Empirical research on negative types of religiousness among Muslims is sparse; (9) The majority of research in this field has been restricted to convenient samples; (10) Several important topics with implications for Muslims deserve further consideration, and there is a need for more varied research methods in studies of Muslims. The implications of these findings and the limitations of this review are discussed.     

Semantic Fluency Performance of Patients with Cortical and Subcortical Neurodegenerative Diseases

Previous studies using the Animals Fluency Test have shown that dementia patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD), Huntington's disease (HD), or Parkinson's disease (PD) produce fewer correct words and have smaller semantic cluster sizes than controls or PD patients without dementia (PDND). Although the number of correct words generated by the patients with AD was positively correlated with mental status, cluster size, surprisingly, was not. To increase word output and increase the reliability of estimates of cluster size, semantic fluency was reexamined using the Supermarket Fluency Task. Overall, patients with HD or PD with dementia (PDD) exhibited reduced cluster sizes compared to older controls or PDND patients, but cluster sizes were only marginally reduced for patients with AD. These effects were evident only for female participants, because the cluster sizes for elderly control men were substantially smaller than those of elderly women. For the female patients with AD, cluster size was correlated with mental status, but the relationship was nonlinear. Cluster size was normal for mildly demented patients with AD, but much reduced for moderately or severely demented participants. In contrast to a previous report, in the present study the proportion of category labels generated was increased for patients with HD with dementia but not for patients with AD. This finding questions one line of evidence that semantic memory stores undergo “bottom-up” degradation in AD. Together with previous results, these findings indicate that semantic cluster size reflects efficiency of access to semantic knowledge which is similarly compromised in subcortical and cortical diseases.     

Age Differences in the Magnitude of the Attentional Blink

When people attend to a target in a rapid sequence of items, their perception of a subsequent target is impaired for about 500 ms. This is termed the attentional blink. In the present experiment, a dual task rapid serial presentation task (Raymond, Shapiro & Arnell, 1992) was used as a measure of inhibitory function of younger and older adults. We found that the attentional blink was larger among older adults as compared to younger adults, supporting Hasher and Zacks' (1988) inhibitory deficit hypothesis and current models of the attentional blink.     

Sequential Performance in Young and Older Adults: Evidence of Chunking and Inhibition

ABSTRACT

Two experiments were conducted to examine possible sources of age-related decline in sequential performance: age differences in sequence representation, retrieval of sequence elements, and efficiency of inhibitory processes. Healthy young and older participants learned a sequence of eight animal drawings in fixed order, then monitored for these targets within trials of mis-ordered stimuli, responding only when targets were shown in the correct order. Responses were slower for odd numbered targets, suggesting that participants spontaneously organized the sequence in two-element chunks. Perseverations (responses to previously relevant targets) served as an index of inhibitory inefficiency. Efficiency of chunk retrieval and self-inhibition were lower for older than for younger adults. Increasing environmental support in Experiment 2 through overt articulation of current chunk elements showed a pattern of results similar to Experiment 1, with particular benefit for older adults. The findings suggest an underlying susceptibility to interference in old age.     

Adult age differences in subjective and objective measures of strategy use on a sequentially cued prediction task

Differences in strategy use are thought to underlie age-related performance deficits on many learning and decision-making tasks. Recently, age-related differences in learning to make predictions were reported on the Triplets Prediction Task (TPT). Notably, deficits appeared early in training and continued with experience. To assess if age differences were due to early strategy use, neural networks were used to objectively assess the strategies implemented by participants during Session 1. Then, the relationship between these strategies and performance was examined. Results revealed that older adults were more likely to implement a disadvantageous strategy early in learning, and this led to poorer task performance. Importantly, the relationship between age and task performance was partially mediated by early strategy use, suggesting that early strategy selection played a role in the lower quality of predictions in older adults.     

‘The Ostrich Problem’: Motivated Avoidance or Rejection of Information About Goal Progress

Monitoring one's current standing with respect to goals can promote effective self‐regulation. However, the present review suggests that there is an ostrich problem such that, in many instances, people have a tendency to “bury their head in the sand” and intentionally avoid or reject information that would help them to monitor their goal progress. For example, people with diabetes avoid monitoring their blood glucose, and few people monitor their household energy consumption, check their bank balances, keep track of what they are eating and so on. While situational constraints can explain some problems with progress monitoring, we use a self‐motives framework to posit that the decision to avoid monitoring often represents the product of an interaction between different motives. For example, the desire to accurately assess progress may conflict with the desire to protect or enhance the self. The present review collates evidence pertaining to the ostrich problem, identifies different motives that underlie the decision to monitor versus not monitor goal progress, illustrates how the ostrich problem might be integrated into models of self‐regulation, and provides suggestions for future research. In so doing, the review advances our understanding of the nature and determinants of intentionally deficient monitoring.     

Long-term learning in dyslexic children

There is now extensive evidence that the learning processes of dyslexic children show some abnormalities, generally consistent with failure to completely automatise skills. Two studies are reported in which a group of adolescent dyslexic children and a group of normal children matched for age and IQ undertook long-term training on a keyboard spatial task and a choice reaction task respectively. It was concluded that, following extended training, the dyslexic children had normal “strength” of automatisation (as assessed by resistance to unlearning, by ease of relearning after one year, and by dual task performance) but that their initial and their final performance (as assessed by speed and accuracy) were impaired. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that dyslexic children suffer from cerebellar deficit.